Wharf Wednesday AMA - 12.18.24
Ben Ranieri and Ty Gonzalez take a trip down to the Wharf to help with answering your questions for this week.
Welcome to Wharf Wednesdays.
Moving forward, these will be designed to be AMA’s, with questions being sourced from Bluesky or X. During the off-season, I will plan to run these every other week, with a shift to weekly once the season begins.
This week, Ben Ranieri of Sea Level and Ty Gonzalez of Locked On: Mariners join me to answer your questions from over the weekend - let’s get to it.
Mock Trade:
Mariners Receive: RP, Jhoan Durán and UTIL,Willi Castro
Twins Receive: RP Gregory Santos, C Harry Ford, RHP Michael Morales and 1B Tyler Locklear
From: Alex Lionz - @Just_Lionz on X
Jage: I like the basis of the trade, but I think this is still light for Minnesota.
For me, I break this trade down to Durán for Santos and Ford, with Willi Castro for Michael Morales and Tyler Locklear.
Morales has been a fast riser after a solid 2024 - but I just don't know if his fastball will play enough for him to be anything more than a 4/5 ceiling. He'll be 22 in AA to start next year, and will need to show a similar jump in production, as well as a return to form with his GB% for me to be more confident in his projections.
We know a little more on Locklear, Santos and Ford - and frankly this feels like buying at the low point on all three players. Locklear has not blown away AAA by any means, and posted an unsustainable K rate in limited time in the bigs last season. Santos at this point is more hope than guarantee, and his injury history continues to be a major concern. Ford still has hung on to his prospect pedigree, but if Minnesota doesn't view him as a catcher, he doesn't have the hit tool to be an every day player.
Ben: In theory it is a good idea, but the Twins still want to compete and there isn't enough here to move the needle for Minnesota. Gregory Santos didn't do enough to make anybody feel confident after his one good, healthy, productive season in 2023, and there are question marks with each prospect. Ford, Morales, and Locklear could all theoretically play in the big leagues this year, but I'm not sure Minnesota is at the stage where they can give playing time to all three. They are still trying to compete clearly with their core of infield players and solid starting pitchers, so trading perhaps one of their biggest value pieces in a deal for prospects lacking a true headliner doesn't seem like something they would do. I generally like this type of idea for Seattle, but I don't think this one will work.
Ty: This is very dependent on how the Twins view Harry Ford. If they think he can catch and do so at the major league level soon, then maybe. If not, this is dead on arrival. Ford's the most polarizing prospect in the upper echelon of the Mariners' farm rankings, and if teams have questions about his ability behind the dish, he's gonna need to prove he can slug more to establish future value elsewhere.
Which prospect in 2025 will shoot up rankings due to their performance that catches people by surprise?
From: Tyler Rouse - @Tyler__Rouse on X
Jage: Not sure how much of a surprise this will be, but Ben Williamson has a very real chance of seeing meaningful playing time in the Majors this year. The glove is very much there, but you need to hope that his low power output is more a result of the ballpark he was in last season (Arkansas) than what his profile is.
Ben: I'm not sure how much of a surprise it would be, but Michael Arroyo has a chance to make some serious noise. I would expect he starts at Everett, and 2025 could be a very exciting year for him if he makes the jump to Arkansas successfully. A season where he cuts down on swing and miss and continues to improve could have him knocking on the doorstep of the big leagues in 2026. Long ways to go, but his 2024 was absolutely excellent and I have heard extremely positive things on him as a teammate and personality.
Ty: This isn't particularly relevant to the rankings aspect of your question, but I'm fascinated by the Mariners' reported plan to use Brandyn Garcia out of the bullpen this year. While I think reliever handedness is a vastly overrated narrative, especially in the three-batter-minimum era, Garcia's sinker-cutter-sweeper combo from the left side could unlock a dimension in the Mariners' bullpen they've only really had in glimpses in recent years and land Garcia some late-inning work as the season progresses.
What's the worst case scenario for the Mariners off-season?
From: Timbo - @othertimbo on X
Jage: Trading Luis Castillo only in order to have money to purchase additional bats. This front office has yet to establish their ability to identify major league quality hitters, nor have they shown an ability to successfully develop them either. Trading Luis in order to sign a 34 year old first baseman with significant concerns in regards to hitting velocity feels like another Mitch Haniger level contract waiting to happen.
Ben: In my opinion it would be waiting too long to address first base/DH and being left without a chair to sit in. There are plenty of options out there right now that are solid at the position, so choosing to wait and getting stuck with Luke Raley (who I love) and Garver/Haniger is an unacceptable outcome for me. You need to address that spot because of it's depth and potential affordability in the market, whether you trade Castillo or not. I'm not sure the options at third or second base are going to be great no matter what, so also whiffing on options at the other spot is not a great outcome for Seattle.
Ty: Getting to a point where they hit so many brick walls trying to accomplish what they want to that they get desperate enough to trade Luis Castillo for something that doesn't actually definitively make them better, or set them up to be better, in 2025. I'm not sure how realistic that is given how disciplined they've reportedly been in that regard, so I'll offer the alternative of what seems to be a very likely scenario: signing Carlos Santana, taking a risky shot on Hye-seong Kim to be their everyday second baseman, running out *shudders* Dylan Moore to play third base, and signing a Paul Sewald level reliever. They're probably marginally better just because they didn't necessarily lose much from the 2024 ball club, but the fact I can't definitively say they'd be better in that scenario is a major problem for me.
Who are your picks for this year’s surprise Mariners bullpen arm? Is there a wildcard pick who is not yet on the roster?
From: CS - @AsToldByCam1 on X
Jage: From a surprise perspective, I think it's Jackson Kowar. I was high on Kowar last season pre-injury, and it sure felt like the org viewed him as a potential late inning high leverage reliever. As for who isn't on the roster, I think it's Brandyn Garcia. Currently, the roster only employs Saucedo and Speier in the LHP role, and neither inspired much confidence last season - Garcia could be an immediate impact reliever for this team if they feel confident in an uptick in velocity from a transition to the bullpen.
Ben: I think there are a lot of different ways you could go with this question. To me it is probably Jackson Kowar or Brandyn Garcia of the people that are currently in the org, but if I had to guess the surprise option would probably be someone who they haven't yet signed. I liked Kowar quite a bit, and the buzz on him was enough for Passan to literally feature him in an article during Spring Training. Garcia is a guy who they love, and so do other teams in trade talks. Typically they are going to take a bunch of shots on MiLB deals and Spring Training invites, which I think will happen at some point after the new year. They will fill up on guys who can be contributors to the pile and one of them will pop into something more than expected. Another guy to keep an eye on is Hunter Cranton. Don't be surprised if he makes a Troy Taylor esque rise to the big leagues. Already has a nasty fastball slider combo that should play in the big leagues as a reliever.
Ty: Brandyn Garcia - refer to previous question on fast rising prospects.
What are the Mariners waiting on for FA signings?
From: Touching Bases - @TouchingBasesPC on X
Jage: To be honest, there really aren't free agents outisde of Carlos Santana or Justin Turner that they feel like they need to sign. There really isn't a need to jump the market on one year deal type players because their markets are typically pretty defined. I also think the impending courtships of both Rōki Sasaki and Hye-seong Kim are impacting their decision making to a certain extent, as well as a potential Luis Castillo deal.
Ben: I wouldn't hold your breath for anyone outside of Santana or Turner. If they feel they want to get the position filled before the new year, look for them to sign Santana. If they feel they want to wait a little longer to see how the 1B market shakes out, look for them to target Justin Turner. I had also heard buzz on them looking at FA relievers, which could be a pivot if they don't get offensive contributors that they are hoping for.
Ty: I think there is something to the fact that while there's been so much smoke around Santana and Turner for weeks, they haven't signed either one yet. But that's in all likelihood almost entirely tied to the Luis Castillo discussions. If their reported interest in Christian Walker is true, which there's no reason to think it isn't given who's reported it, then they're likely holding off on Santana or Turner (seems like it's mostly Santana at this point) until they get a definitive answer on what they're going to do with Castillo and if they're going to free up that money. If Castillo stays, then Walker or anyone else they might have interest in who's in that range is off the table, and the best player they'll sign this winter is likely Santana or Hye-seong Kim, depending on how you feel about the latter.
Who wins this Best of 7 series -The 2016 Mariners, or The 2023 Mariners?
From: @tibbsaf.bsky.social on Bluesky
Jage: 2023 takes the cake for me - there just isn't a comparison when it comes to the rotation's between 2016 and 2023.
Ben: 2023 pretty comfortably for me. The pitching was just SO much better top to bottom. If Felix was still in his prime you could maybe sway me in the other direction because of the three boppers in the 2016 lineup, but the 2023 team, as frustrating as they were, still won 88 games and had a hell of a rotation.
Ty: It's 2023 for me. The pitching staff was significantly better than 2016's and there was *enough* offense that, in combination with the pitching, should be able to outpace the 2016 roster.
Since it seems like there's a good chance one of these scenarios will happen, would you rather take a gamble on Bliss/Moore/Young at 2B or Hancock/Evans/Garcia as the 5th SP?
From: Zach Levy - @ZachTLevy on X
Jage: I'm taking the Bliss/Moore/Young group for two reasons.
I think it's the most likely, given I believe any type of Castillo based deal would probably need to return a backfill for the rotation as well as the bat they are looking for.
Given the reporting on Garcia potentially being a candidate for the bullpen, as well as Evans not really having plus plus in any of his offerings, I really don't feel comfortable betting on either of those two, or Hancock, to be someone you want coming through your rotation once every five days.
I understand most rotations in baseball don't have high end 5th starters, but until I see a sustained success from an offense built by this front office, I'm not really willing to have 20% of your starts coming from potentially replacement level, or worse, pitching.
Ben: I would much rather go into next year with the trio of young starters as my 6,7,8 than my 5,6,7th starters. If you trade Castillo you need to recoup someone who can at least give you reliable big league innings in return IMO. The trio of second basemen is a much more pallatable second base option to me. Cole Young is a good prospect, and he held his own in ST very well last year. There's a lot of growth there, but the buzz in and around the organization on him has always been very good. Ryan Bliss is a prospect I have liked for a while, and we know what Dylan Moore is. Those three can give you some defensive value, and speed at the very least. Making one of the young starters your fifth guy makes me nervous on the overall depth of the rotation, which I just cannot convince myself is a worthy sacrifice.
Ty: I think the downgrade from Castillo (or one of the other pitchers) to the group of Hancock/Evans/etc. is wildly underestimated. I'd much rather have arguably the best rotation, one through five, and a question mark at second base (with some potentially high upside options) than the alternative.
What’s a return from one of the teams often mentioned in a Luis Castillo trade that would make trading him tolerable for you?
From: @relyks.bsky.social on Bluesky
Jage: It's a bit of a cop out, but I really don't think one exists. In order for a trade to be tolerable for me, I'm going to need an immediate top of the order bat at one of the infield positions, as well as a young pitcher who can slot in to the rotation, or the back end of the bullpen. Obviously the fit doesn't work, but something in the ballpark of Seiya Suzuki and Ben Brown would make me feel fine, but I just don't believe the Cubs would consider making that type of move for Castillo.
Ben: I'm probably not doing it at this point unless I'm getting an above average everyday regular and a number 4 type starter. I just do not feel comfortable rolling into next season with a rotation losing the durability and overall consistency of Castillo. He might be dipping a bit in performance in the coming years, but he is steady and consistent. The club just had an all time healthy season from their rotation and I wouldn't feel comfortable betting on that to happen again. I would probably want a controllable (preferably young) starter and some type of infield bat. I'm just not sure if there is a team out there with an infielder they want to spare, plus another MLB piece that makes this all worth it for Seattle.
Ty: I really don't like the fit with any of the teams mentioned other than the Cubs, which doesn't seem all that likely at this point. But if the Mariners could pull off a deal that lands them Nico Hoerner and, say, Javier Assad or Jordan Wicks, I'd be on board.