The Rob Refsnyder Problem
"There's the way it ought to be, and there's the way it is."
Editor’s Note: No podcast this week due to a difficult work schedule, so please enjoy this less than rosy write-up about Jerry Dipoto’s favorite 1980s film/baseball concept, Platoon.
Coming into the 2026 season, the Seattle Mariners clearly felt that they had roughly 70% of right field and designated hitter covered, and admittedly, I was mostly fine with that line of thinking, given the organizational needs elsewhere.
Dominic Canzone had just come off a breakout season in which he posted career bests in almost every offensive category, and was likely written in pen as the Mariners Opening Day designated hitter barring a surprise trade.
Luke Raley, who was coming off of an injury plagued 2025 season, was probably more pencil than pen in terms of security for his spot on the Opening Day roster, but certainly served as an adequate at worst option for the lion’s share of work in right field, especially given his 129 WRC+ over 900 plus plate appearances across the 2023 and 2024 seasons.
With Canzone and Raley, the Mariners had roughly 900-1,000 of the 1,400 PAs needed to cover those two positions for the 2026 season spoken for. For the other 400-500 PAs, most fans likely expected a mixture of Victor Robles, as well as DH days for players like Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena. Realistically, the Mariners had other concerns (1B, 2B, 3B, bullpen) that took precedent - and the idea of an outside acquisition seemed unlikely considering the already lengthy list of needs, as well as the potential to cover those right handed PAs internally.
Then, to the surprise of most, the Mariners announced the signing of right handed outfielder Rob Refsnyder to a 1 year, $6.25m contract. The move at the time was generally celebrated, given Refsnyder’s reputation as a clubhouse leader, as well as his ability to do the thing the Mariners needed the most - mash left handed pitching:
The Mariners were dreadful against LHP pitching from the RF spot in 2025, to the tune of a 72 WRC+ and .580 OPS, both of which ranked in the bottom third in the majors, while they also ranking in the bottom half of offensive production from the position in general, with a 93 WRC+ and a .665 OPS
Refsnyder, on the other hand, was 4th in the majors in OPS and WRC+ against LHP, ranking only behind Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Jackson Chourio with a minimum of 130 PAs. Already 34 years old, Refsnyder won’t require any type of long term deal, and given his role as a part time player, likely won’t require a large financial investment either. Spotrac currently has Refsnyder at a $4.4m market value, and would provide a financially accessible upgrade on both Victor Robles, and the LHP DH role, which should be open with the likely departure of Mitch Garver.
Now - I would be lying if I said this move was a universally beloved one by the Mariners fan base. Memories of past platoon failures have left Mariners fans rightfully scorned, and at 34, Refsnyder was by no means a spring chicken. But given Refsnyder had the 6th highest OPS, and 5th highest WRC+ of ANY player against left handed pitching over the previous THREE years, this signing had to be the one that worked, right? RIGHT?!
WELP…
Now if you were just looking at the numbers on paper, you could potentially look towards Refsnyder’s BABIP and say that there has maybe been a level of unluckiness - but the underlying metrics don’t necessarily tell the same story:
Simply put, Refsnyder’s BABIP is more correlated to his significant drop off in both barrel and hard hit percentages than it is to being unlucky. Additionally, Refsnyder’s lack of production really can’t be attributed to a new found inability to make contact, given his swing and miss measurables (Chase, K and Whiff %) are all relatively unchanged. Refsnyder seeing this level of decline without it being influenced by an increase in swing and miss is certainly a concern, and even more so when you consider his age.
So with that said, what do the Mariners do now? If the Mariners plan is to continue with Refsnyder on the roster, there are a few avenues the organization could go.
Victor Robles should be available to the main roster sooner rather than later as he is already 8 games in to a rehab assignment in Tacoma. That said, Robles is currently running a 32.4% K rate with a .154/.324/.192 line over 34 PAs on his rehab, and has only had 81 PAs at the major league level over the last 12 months.
The organization could increase Connor Joe’s playing time, as Joe has produced a .707 OPS and a 105 WRC+ over 30 PAs. However, Joe’s spot on the roster could be in question once Victor Robles’ rehab assignment comes to an end, especially with Joe still having an option available for the Mariners to use. I know a healthy portion of folks would argue that Leo Rivas should be sent down instead of Joe given his meager offensive output, but sending down Rivas would leave the Mariners with no backup infield options on the 26 man roster, and would give the Mariners a bench of Garver/Pereda, Joe, Robles and Refsnyder.
The Mariners could also turn to players who are performing well in Tacoma, specifically Brennen Davis, who through 147 PAs is sporting a .972 OPS and a 144 WRC+ in Tacoma, with a K rate that’s almost 8% lower than his career average. But calling up Davis would require the Mariners to add him to the 40 Man Roster. The Mariners do currently have a spot open with Logan Evans, Carlos Vargas and Miles Mastrobuoni all on the 60 Day IL - but that spot is only tentatively available with Mastrobuoni being eligible to return the last week of May. The Mariners would not have to make a move with the 40 man roster immediately, but upon Mastrobuoni’s return, would have to remove someone from the 40 man roster if they choose to add Davis now.
Realistically, the Mariners face several decisions over the next few weeks that could significantly shift the backend of the 26 man roster, all of which seem to center around the 400-500 above mentioned PAs the Mariners were tasked with covering this off-season, and can be summarized as such:
When Victor Robles’ rehab ends, he must be added to the 26 man roster, or released/traded
If the Mariners add Brennen Davis to the 40 man roster, another move will need to be made to remove someone if/when Miles Mastrobuoni is re-instated, which can be as early as the end of May
When/If Mastrobuoni is healthy, he must be added to the 26 man roster, or would need to be released or traded.
The Mariners can’t remove Leo Rivas from the roster without adding another infielder, as Rivas is the only backup infielder on the 26 man currently, and the only healthy RHH who can play multiple infield positions
With all of this in mind, this leads us to the title, The Rob Refsnyder Problem.
When the Mariners made a similar signing in AJ Pollock prior to the 2023 season, the organization gave Pollock 138 PAs over 49 games. In return, Pollock gave them a 52 WRC+ and was kept on the roster until he was traded at the deadline to the San Fransisco Giants. Refsnyder is almost half way there in terms of playing time, while some how providing even less production than Pollock did.
If Rob Refsnyder continues to struggle at the plate as he has, and does so without an injury related cause that could provide the Mariners the ability to put him on the IL, the organization will sooner rather than later need to make a decision on Refsnyder as a Seattle Mariner.
Now, this is certainly not saying that the Mariners have a clearly better solution available to them. As discussed above, Brennen Davis is currently lighting up Tacoma, but he is an injury prone, unproven commodity who has yet to make his major league debut. Victor Robles has yet to find traction in his rehab stint, and is now 18 months removed from the three month stretch that resurrected his career, not to mention that his career 101 WRC+ against LHP doesn’t necessarily scream ideal weak side platoon candidate. Connor Joe has performed well enough to this date, but how much can you rely on him to continue to produce at 33? Is the organization willing to give Joe guaranteed ABs against LHP until July?
They all might not be perfect, but despite Robles, Davis and Joe’s warts, they might be better solutions to the current version of Refsnyder at this point in time - the question is, how long will the Mariners give Refsnyder the chance to prove he can still do it?
With a middling American League, the organization could feel like they have the time to allow Refsnyder the ability to figure it out, but given the dramatic decline in his quality of contact, his age and his inability to impact the game in alternative ways, it feels foolish to hope or expect for things to change for the better.
Here’s hoping we don’t need to wait until July to know the answer.