Off-Season Captain's Log - Part 3
In Part 3 of our series, we take a look at who the Mariners could target for 2026 via their preferred acquisition route, the trade market.
Note: This is part 3 of a 5 part series reviewing the 2026 Seattle Mariners.
Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 1: 2026 Mariners Roster As Is
Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 2: Free Agent Fits per Position
Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 3: Trade Targets per Position
Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 4: The F.O Off-Season Plan (Coming Soon)
Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 5: My Off-Season Plan (Coming Soon)
Prologue
Given the Mariners well documented strategy of solving roster questions via the trade market, this part of the series was probably the one I felt most comfortable sitting down to write.
Despite a much slower 2024-25 trade off-season that the team clearly was not expecting, the organization has made a living in off-seasons by re-allocating funds or acquiring arbitration eligible type players as their preferred method of roster construction. Some of this can be attributed to lack of resources put forward by ownership, but a healthy portion of their decision making can also be tied back to their Draft, Develop and Trade organizational philosophy, where they typically avoid handing out multi-year contracts to free agents, particularly to positional players.
With one of the deepest farms in baseball, the Mariners in theory are well positioned to once again address holes on the roster via the trade market, but from the department of “It Takes Two to Tango”, this method will always be restricted based on what the market bears, what other organizations see as valuable in the Mariners ranks, and finding the right match where both parties come away happy.
Regardless, today we will take a look at trade targets per position (with some being much more pressing than others), as well as reviewing the target’s current needs at the minor and major league level, and how the Mariners could be a match.
Catcher
Target: Luis Campusano, San Diego Padres
2025 Stat Line: 27 PAs, .000/.222/.000, -5 WRC+, -0.4 fWAR
San Diego Farm Needs: Position Players, Depth
San Diego Major League Needs: Starting Pitching, Salary Relief
To preface, catcher is likely the least probable position where the Mariners will be looking this upcoming off-season, that is, unless the organization uses Harry Ford in a subsequent trade. Given the organization carried Harry Ford on its roster for September, and the presence of all-world Cal Raleigh, it would appear as if the Mariners have their catching room in order for 2026 and beyond.
But in the instance that the Mariners do choose to trade Harry Ford (potentially in a trade with the Padres) buying low on post hype prospect Luis Campusano could offer a way for the Mariners to backfill their backup catching spot without needing to use other resources.
Campusano, now two years removed from what looked to be a breakout in 2023, has struggled mightily over the last two seasons. Even with the Padres ranking in the bottom third of the league in both WRC+ and fWAR at the position, Campusano struggled to take the reigns behind the plate, and saw significant step backs both in his defense, and his approach at the plate.
Despite all of the bad, Campusano once ranked as high as 44th in 2022 in the MLB Pipeline Top 100 and will only be 27 for the majority of the 2026 season. As an organization, the Mariners have often gravitated to prospect pedigree types, especially ones who have shown glimpses of their potential. With zero minor league options remaining, Campusano would need to be on the 26 man roster on Opening Day, or be subject to waivers, where another team would likely take a flier on the prospect pedigree as well. Campusano would come with 3 years of control, and would likely cost nothing more than a flier prospect at this point in his career. As I said above, I don’t see an avenue where the Mariners would acquire Campusano if Cal Raleigh and Harry Ford are both in camp come February, but he would serve as an interesting flier to take for the back-up catcher role if that were not the case.
First Base
Target: Alec Burleson, St. Louis Cardinals
2025 Stat Line: 546 PAs, .290/.343/.459, 124 WRC+, 2.1 fWAR
St. Louis Farm Needs: Outfield, Right Handed Pitching
St. Louis Major League Needs: Starting Pitching, Outfield, Third Base
In the instance where the Mariners do not re-sign Josh Naylor, and are either uninterested or outbid on Kazuma Okamoto, they will likely need to address the hole at 1B via trade, given they will likely not be swimming in the Pete Alonso free agency waters.
Alec Burleson experienced a bit of a breakout in 2025, posting career full season highs in WRC+, OPS, walk percentage, average, OBP and SLG, while also striking out at a well below league average rate of 14.5%. A left hander, Burleson was also relatively split proof, with a 98 WRC+ against LHP and a 132 WRC+ against RHP, though the majority of his power does come against right handers.
So with that in mind, why would Burleson be available? Well, the Cardinals are in a bit of a transition phase with Chaim Bloom recently taking the reigns as the President of Baseball Operations from long time exec John Mozeliak. The roster as is has proven to not be good enough in a tough NL Central division, and the Cardinals ownership group isn’t necessarily one to set out to solve their problems by spending big. In a sense, the Cardinals find themselves in a bit of the same position as the Mariners did in 2018, and will likely look to shuffle the roster while also continuing to add to a farm that has seen growth over the past few seasons.
If the Mariners identify Burleson as their 1B of the future, the cost here is going to be tricky. Burleson has been a fringe top 50 hitter in baseball in terms of WRC+ and OPS over the past two season, is only 26 years old and comes with three years of arbitration control. However, he’s a 1B/DH type who can play corner outfield, but probably shouldn’t. Of the targets listed in this write-up, Burleson would likely be one of the more expensive options to acquire, but would provide the Mariners with a long term solution at 1B, a position in which the Mariners have little to no prospect of solving internally.
Second Base
Target: Brendan Donovan, St. Louis Cardinals
2025 Stat Line: 515 PAs, .287/.353/.422, 119 WRC+, 2.9 fWAR
St. Louis Farm Needs: Outfield, Right Handed Pitching
St. Louis Major League Needs: Starting Pitching, Outfield, Third Base
Of the positions in the organization that the Mariners have theoretically depth at, second base is likely at the top. But to take from the old adage of “if you have two Quarterbacks, you have none”, just because the Mariners have depth, doesn’t mean they have a true starter.
With two years of arbitration control remaining, Brendan Donovan fits this front office’s mold of acquiring players in their arbitration years, and though he’s listed as a second baseman for this exercise, also fills a need in the UTIL role with the decline and inevitable departure of Dylan Moore.
Donovan has experience playing almost every position on the diamond outside of catcher and centerfield, though his primary positions over the last two seasons have been at second and in left field. Given the lack of certifiable starter at second base, and the inevitable free agency of Randy Arozarena in 2027, Donovan would potentially solve multiple issues for the Mariners over multiple seasons, while also adding some additional flexibility in 2026 in case of injury across the diamond.
In a perfect world, you’d love to see Donovan slot in as your third baseman for 2026, however, Donovan has played third base only 15 times in the past three seasons, including zero appearances in 2025. He did appear in 31 games at third in 2022, with positive results in terms of Outs Above Average, but expecting him to slot in as an opening day third baseman would likely be a misuse of his skillset given his flexibility to play other positions, and play them well.
In terms of trade cost, Donovan is compares similarly to the cost of Randy Arozarena due to his control and his overall value. The two full seasons prior to being acquired by the Mariners (and with 2.5 years of control remaining), Arozarena was worth 5.8 fWAR and posted a 124 WRC+, and at the time of being acquired, was 29.
Donovan, who will have 2 years of control, has been worth 6.1 fWAR and has posted a 117 WRC+ in the same two year lead-up, and would be entering his age 29 season as well.
Shortstop
Target: CJ Abrams, Washington Nationals
2025 Stat Line: 635 PAs, .257/.315/.433, 107 WRC+, 3.1 fWAR
Washington Farm Needs: Outfield, Corner Infield, Catcher
Washington Major League Needs: Every Position that James Wood Doesn’t Play
A few prefaces to begin the conversation around CJ Abrams.
Though Abrams has played SS for the entirety of his career, I’m not so sure Abrams should continue to see that defensive position moving forward. Since 2022, CJ Abrams has ranked dead last (by a wide margin) in terms of Outs Above Average at the shortstop position (ironically, right in front of J.P Crawford).
The difficulty here with Abrams is his biggest areas of concern in terms of fielding are on balls he has to charge, as well as balls hit to his left - which hypothetically could make him a difficult fit at third base, which would be the position I would hope the Mariners would try to transition him to if acquired. But at only 25 years of age, and with three years of arb control remaining, he is certainly a player the Mariners could look to take a chance on defensively, in the hopes that Perry Hill could help Abrams improve on the true weak point in his game.
Offensively, Abrams has averaged 19 home runs and 36 stolen bases over his last three full seasons, while also offering a slightly above average WRC+. Though his speed might lead you to think he could be a viable leadoff option, a spot in which he’s hit out of for more than 50% of his career, Abrams is not necessarily an on-base type, and has only carried a 5.3 BB% for his career.
Similar to Burleson above, the value here on Abrams could be pretty tricky. On one hand, you’re acquiring a cost controlled 25 year old who “plays” a premium position and has been an above average bat over his last 1200 PAs - on the other hand, Abrams doesn’t really have a defined defensive position you can currently trust him in, and there have been past instances off the field that led to a minor league demotion, and originally opened the idea of him being available in trades in the past.
There is a bit of a risk here in acquiring Abrams, and the prospect cost would likely be pretty stiff, but it is clear the talent is there.
Third Base
Target: Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies
2025 Stat Line: 504 PAs, .287/.331/.409, 105 WRC+, 1.7 fWAR
Philadelphia Farm Needs: Catcher, Corner Infield
Philadelphia Major League Needs: Catcher, Outfield, Bullpen
A popular name for the Mariners during the 2024-25 off-season, Alec Bohm will likely find himself on the trade market again in 2025, especially with the emergence of Otto Kemp, and potentially the arrival and position switch of Aidan Miller.
The difficulty with Alec Bohm isn’t necessarily the player himself, who for a lack of a better term has been completely adequate over the past three seasons. No - the difficulty with Alec Bohm comes down to whether or not President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski is actually willing to have real conversations around actually trading Alec Bohm.
During the 2024-25 off-season, the Mariners and the Athletics were reportedly interested in Bohm’s services - but Dombrowski’s reported compensation asks of George Kirby or Logan Gilbert, as well as asking for Mason Miller, made it evidently clear that the Phillies were not seriously considering trading Alec Bohm. If Dombrowski continues to treat Alec Bohm like peak Arenado in terms of asking price, he can be free to enjoy Bohm’s services for one more season.
If the Phillies are in fact ready to have real conversations, Bohm’s fit with the Mariners does make sense. He’s by no means a middle of the order bat, but would slide nicely into the back half of the Mariners lineup, while providing a slightly above average glove at third base, where he ranks 16th amongst 38 qualified 3B in terms of Outs Above Average over the past three seasons.
Bohm is only controlled for one more season at an estimated $10.3m in arbitration, so he would be a temporary fix for the 2026 season - but would certainly provide an offensive upgrade on the incumbent third base options the Mariners are facing.
Again, the trade cost for Bohm is almost impossible to predict given Dombrowski’s previous attempts of turning on force trades in real life, but hypothetically, the cost for Bohm should be less than the Erik Swanson and Adam Macko trade for Teoscar Hernandez from a few off-seasons prior.
Outfield
Target: Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians
2025 Stat Line: 693 PAs, .272/.330/.374, 99 WRC+, 3.2 fWAR
Farm Needs: Starting Pitching, Corner Infield
Major League Needs: Hitting, Hitting and More Hitting
The first question you may be asking yourself upon reading the major league needs for the Guardians could be “why would the Guardians trade hitting, when they need hitting?” (Spoiler: Because they are cheap.)
To add to that, the Guardians, who wound up going on one of the more improbable end of season runs in recent memory, were actively shopping Steven Kwan at the deadline, and often look to capitalize on players in their arbitration years in order to continue a strong minor league pipeline for their major league club to remain young, competitive and more importantly, cheap.
Given the Mariners desperate need for a true leadoff hitter, Kwan would certainly fill a need for the organization - however, there are a couple of hiccups here when considering a Kwan trade.
First - there is the question of current incumbent Randy Arozarena and his projected $18m arbitration number. Randy is certainly the better power bat, and carries similar on base value to that of Kwan, but his defense in left field is suspect at best, and the idea of shifting him to DH doesn’t hold much merit given his 30 point drop in WRC+, and near 100 point drop in OPS when he is not playing in the field over his career. Alternatively, shifting Randy to right field also doesn’t fit, given he hasn’t played in that position since 2022, and graded in the 14th percentile in terms of arm value in 2025. Realistically, if the Mariners were to acquire Kwan, it may come at the expense of Randy Arozarena as part of the 2026 Mariners club.
Secondly - there is the question of cost in terms of Steven Kwan’s services. Reportedly, the Guardians were asking the San Diego Padres for top 5 prospect Leo De Vries, and MORE, in return for Kwan this deadline. Now, this could have been a tactic of not wanting to give up on a season unless the offer was too good to decline, but it is clear that though the Guardians are willing to part with Kwan, the asking price may be something most teams would, and should, turn down.
Kwan would be under arbitration control for two more years, and offers gold glove defense in left field, something the Mariners could desperately use. However, trade cost and current fit could make Kwan a tricky fit unless other moves are made first.
Designated Hitter
Target: Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
2025 Stat Line: 553 PAs, .256/.307/.477, 114 WRC+, 1.7 fWAR
Tampa Bay Farm Needs: Catcher, Third Base, Left Handed Pitching
Tampa Bay Major League Needs: Catcher, Outfield, Real Stadium
Admittedly, Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz could be interchangeable here, as both are guaranteed under control for one more season (Díaz does have a club option in 2027 as well), and both could slide into a DH role with some flexibility for other positions. That said, I chose to go with Lowe for this exercise because I am not necessarily buying in on Díaz’ return to form with his slugging, given he had a significant home/road split (18 HR at home vs. 7 on the road) compared to Lowe (15 HR at home vs. 16 on the road), while playing in the third friendliest ballpark for right handed hitters.
An additional benefit for Lowe over Díaz here also comes from Lowe’s ability to play 1B and 2B, which in a way, makes him a suitable Jorge Polanco replacement if his market gets too rich for the organization.
Similar to Polanco, Lowe has struggled with injuries through his career, and his 134 games played last season was the highest he had in a single year since 2021, which just so happens to be the only season he has played more than 140 games in.
Financially, Lowe has a club option for 2026 worth $11.5m, one that even a frugal franchise such as the Rays will almost certainly pick up - and would likely slot in financially for what the Mariners might likely set as a relative cap on what they are willing to bring back Polanco on.
As for trade compensation, the Rays have a definite need through their organization at catcher, but Harry Ford would not really match here without more coming back from Tampa, and I’d doubt the Mariners would be looking to trade Luke Stevenson for a 31 year old DH rental either. Realistically, Lowe’s value probably falls similarly to Alec Bohm’s, though his offensive production might warrant additional compensation.
Relief Pitcher
Target: Angel Zerpa, Kansas City Royals
2025 Stat Line: 64.2 IP, 21.1 K%, 8.0 BB%, 4.18 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 0.3 fWAR
Kansas City Farm Needs: Outfield, Corner Infield, Left Handed Pitching
Kansas City Major League Needs: Hitting, Hitting and More Hitting
In the continued quest for a second left handed option out of the bullpen, Angel Zerpa fits the bill as a player the Mariners absolutely would love to have, but the question comes down more to whether or not he’s available.
Tying back to my Trade Deadline Strategy article back in July, the Royals and the Mariners seem to be almost natural trade partners given the needs for both. The Mariners are in desperate need of another strikeout arm, particularly from the left side, while the Royals are in desperate need of additional production from their outfield, particularly now that Mike Yastrzemski has entered free agency.
Now, Zerpa hasn’t necessarily been a strikeout guy in his career, where he only has a 7.63 K/9, but what he does have is velocity, and a ground ball arsenal that led to him having a top five ground ball rate of all qualified relief pitchers in baseball last season.
Zerpa can be a little homer prone, however a transition to T-Mobile Park could help lower that for him, instead of the House of Horrors that is Kauffman Stadium in the summer time.
As mentioned above, his availability could be something that makes this a non-starter. He is coming off a down year in terms of ERA, but he did have the lowest FIP in a full season for his career, while also having the highest fastball velocity. Zerpa is under arbitration control for the next three seasons, so any acquisition of him would likely be pricey. I had proposed a Dominic Canzone and Teddy McGraw type deal for Lucas Erceg in my plan last July, and maybe there is some similar value there, but at 26 with three years of control, convincing the Royals to part with him might be tough.
Starting Pitcher
Target: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
2025 Stat Line: 195.1 IP, 32.2 K%, 4.4 BB%, 2.21 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 6.6 fWAR
Farm Needs: For Skubal? The Best You Are Willing to Offer.
Major League Needs: See Above.
There really isn’t much to review here on Skubal that most Mariners fans don’t already know.
Skubal is one of the best two pitchers in baseball, throws a bajillion miles per hour, is under control for one more season - and is absolutely going to go to free agency.
In a better world where all ownerships were built like the Dodgers, Skubal wouldn’t even be available, and would have already signed his generational contract to be a Tiger for life, but alas, we do not live in that world.
To be clear, any Skubal trade absolutely means the removal of Luis Castillo and the entirety of his contract from the Mariners rotation, which in itself, could be a challenge. But on top of that, the Tigers are by no means required to trade Tarik Skubal, and likely will not unless they are given the market value that they themselves will set.
I know there have been comps made to the Corbin Burnes trade, but with no disrespect intended to Burnes, he is not Tarik Skubal. The compensation here would be hard to swallow, and there is a high likelihood you would be acquiring his services for just this season - but for an organization that wants to bring a World Series to Seattle, and has the farm depth that it does, there may not be a better team positioned to offer what it would take to get the soon to be back-to-back Cy Young Award winner.