Off-Season Captain's Log - Part 2
After reviewing the 2026 Mariners roster as is, we turn our attention to Free Agency, and what players might fit best for next year's club.
Note: This is part 2 of a 5 part series reviewing the 2026 Seattle Mariners.
Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 1: 2026 Mariners Roster As Is
Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 2: Free Agent Fits per Position
Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 3: Trade Targets per Position (Coming Soon)
Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 4: The F.O Off-Season Plan (Coming Soon)
Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 5: My Off-Season Plan (Coming Soon)
Prologue
The Mariners are by no means a normal off-season free agency team. The front office has frequently made it’s hay building the roster primarily off of their Draft, Develop and Trade motto, leading fans to often feel let down by the lack of aggression during the off-season during the Dipoto regime.
Without regurgitating the specifics, the Mariners have only signed one position player to a multi-year deal under current leadership in the past decade, and have only made one major splash, with the Robbie Ray signing during the 2021 off-season - a five year pact, which saw Ray getting traded to San Francisco post the conclusion of his no-trade clause in January of 2024.
That said, with the recent comments from Dipoto and Hollander revolving around the upcoming free agency period, as well as the high profile free agents who spent their time in Seattle last season, we will take a look at each position to review potential fits for the 2026 club.
Catcher
Best Fit: Victor Caratini
Back-up Fit: Tom Murphy
Victor Caratini is coming off a slightly above average year at the plate with the Houston Astros, which was a near replica from his pseudo breakout season in 2024.
Caratini finished the year playing in 114 games while posting a 104 WRC+ with a .728 OPS over 386 PAs. Though his defensive metrics slid marginally from his previous three seasons, particularly in his throwing and framing metrics, Caratini still carried the same grades in blocking while producing a league average bat.
A switch hitter, Caratini was relatively platoon proof in terms of OPS (.740 vs. LHP, .726 vs. RHP) - but saw a significant dip in average against LHP, a role in which he only saw 62 PAs against in 2025. As a set back-up role with the Mariners, Caratini would allow the ability for Cal Raleigh to DH or rest regardless of split, and offer the Mariners a major league quality AB, while also allowing the flexibility to spare whoever plays first base in 2026.
Per Spotrac, Caratini is projected as a $2.2m market value, which would likely fit the Mariners budget if they didn’t feel comfortable with Harry Ford as their primary back-up come opening day.
Tom Murphy isn’t a free agent yet, but given a back injury that ended his 2025 season early, and his $4m club option, theres certainly a world where Murphy will be available come this off-season.
Murphy spent four very productive, very injured years with the Mariners from 2019-2023, where only once did Murph post a WRC+ lower than 126, and showed zero issues with hitting in TMobile, or any park for that matter.
However, his injuries continue to be an issue, and at 35 on opening day, Murphy would likely be no more than a flier for the major league roster as insurance for Harry Ford in the case that things go south, and admittedly, might be more in the realm of a minor league deal than anything. Murphy currently has no projected Spotrac market value, likely due to his club option, as well as his injury history - but if the Mariners, and Murphy, were interested in a reunion, there would be room on the depth chart in the instance the team decides to carry three catchers.
Probability of a Catcher FA Signing: 10%
First Base
Best Fit: Josh Naylor
Back-up Fit: Kazuma Okamoto
Let’s start with Josh Naylor, where we’ll reference a wanna-be Mariners blog writer for input:
Pay him. That’s the analysis. This author doesn’t care about the years, financials or alternate solutions - Pay. Josh. Naylor.
Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s discuss the potential reality where the Mariners do not retain Josh Naylor’s services, and are forced to pivot.
Kazuma Okamoto is not the shiniest of potential first basemen who are coming over from Japan this season, but his profile, and cost, could very well fit the budget that the Mariners are likely working with.
At 29 years of age, turning 30 in June, Okamoto carries a similar (though lighter) batting profile to that of Seiya Suzuki, but will be making the transition stateside roughly 3 years later in his career than Suzuki did.
For his career, Okamoto carries a career .882 OPS, with a 10.7% BB rate and a 17.7% K rate in his time in the NPB. For comparisons sakes, Seiya Suzuki carried a .985 OPS, with a 13.7% BB rate and a 16.1% K rate prior to his transition stateside in 2022.
Okamoto did miss a healthy chunk of the 2025 season in the NPB with an elbow injury, but this is a bit of an outlier for Okamoto, who has played in 140 games or more in 6 of his 8 seasons as a professional.
The major concern with Okamoto could be his ability to hit velocity above 94 MPH, as Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs has noted in his scouting of Okamoto’s game in relation to the Major Leagues. That said, Longenhagen also points out that Okamoto only faced roughly 200 pitches of that speed in the NPB last season.
Okamoto does have the flexibility, to an extent, to play third base, as well as a corner outfield spot - for the point of this exercise, we are labeling Okamoto as a first baseman, a position he feels likely to slot in come 2026.
Spotrac does not have Okamoto valued at a the moment, but it is important to remember that acquiring Okamoto’s services would require the Mariners to go through the posting process on top of his projected contract. Most projections at this point have him in a similar range to that of Josh Naylor.
Probability of a 1B Free Agent Signing: 80%
Second Base
Best Fit: Jorge Polanco
Back-up Fit: Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Similar to the above first base review, there really isn’t much to discuss in terms of Jorge Polanco and his fit with the Seattle Mariners in 2026.
Realistically, Polo’s return will very likely come down to his upcoming market once he opts out of his player option, and the budget the Mariners are working with for the upcoming season.
Polanco would likely split time between second base and designated hitter if he were to return, but the Mariners will very likely face stiff competition for Polanco’s services, especially given the fact that he posted the best WRC+ of his career in 2025.
Kiner-Falefa fits here as a back-up option at second base, but any scenario where IKF winds up in Seattle in 2026 likely ends with him filling more of a Mastrobuoni type role given his ability to play 3 infield positions at an above average level.
IKF is by no means a masher, and has yet to post a single season with a WRC+ north of 100, but he’s a low strikeout, high contact type bat who offers slightly above average speed on the base paths. His current Spotrac market value places him at roughly $5.3m, which could be a little rich for the Mariners given their internal options currently - but IKF would serve as a solid bench piece for any contender, as he has shown this postseason with Toronto.
Probability of a 2B Free Agent Signing: 50%
Shortstop
Best Fit: Isiah Kiner-Falefa
Back-up Fit: Willi Castro
I won’t go back into depth in regards to IKF in this section, but as mentioned above, IKF’s positional flexibility gives the Mariners a major league ready option for backup shortstop, as well as second base and third base.
Admittedly, Castro is a bit of a cheat here, as he only started five games at shortstop this season, but given Spotrac is being kind enough to list him in that category, we’re going to count it.
Castro was a very popular trade target this past July for Mariners fans, but was quickly forgotten about following the surprise plane ride by one Eugenio Suárez, and the middle of the night Passan bomb that sent the Mariners twitter-sphere into a tizzy.
Castro was on pace for this third straight season of posting at least a 106 WRC+ until his trade to the the north side of Chicago seemed to sap him of any BABIP magic he may have had in his time in Minnesota.
Prior to the trade, Castro ran a 109 WRC+, with league average strikeout and walk rates and a .742. OPS. Castro also added a much needed defensive flexibility to any club that acquired him, as he started at least 5 games at six positions in 2025. However, upon arriving in Chicago, Castro went into a tailspin, posting a paltry 40 WRC+ with a sub .500 OPS in 110 PAs for the Cubs. Though he was on their postseason roster for the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds, Castro saw zero plate appearances and would’ve been benched in September if not for injuries providing him opportunities to play.
That said, Castro is still only 28, and could be a potential buy low candidate for the right time looking for a utility type player to fill out their roster. This author personally disagrees with Spotrac’s projected $10.9m market value considering his second half tank job, but Castro could be the type of player a contender brings in on a one year prove it deal that could wind up being a difference maker when it matters most.
Probability of a SS Free Agent Signing: 5%
Third Base
Best Fit: Eugenio Suárez
Back-up Fit: Miguel Andujar
I’ll preface the third base discussion with the same insight I will offer for the outfield position as well - Alex Bregman is absolutely the best overall fit for the Mariners at 3B for the 2026 season and beyond - but the Mariners have proven over the past decade that their protocol of roster construction does not revolve around long term free agent contracts, especially when considering a player who will turn 32 right after opening day. This author obviously does not agree with this line of thinking, however, the purpose of this write-up is to focus on realistic best fits, and not moves I would make on MLB The Show.
With that said, Eugenio Suárez, for me, is still likely the best fit for the Seattle Mariners for 2026 - but the tricky aspect here is I’m not sure the Seattle Mariners are the best fit for Eugenio Suárez.
Clearly the love affair between the city and Geno runs deep, especially with the monumental moments he gave the fan base during the playoff run this season - but objectively put, Geno was a below average 3B in his 220 PAs with the Mariners, with slumps that reached into the depths of some portions of the fan base pining for the return of Ben Williamson.
Geno still remains the best fit for me, primarily due to the likelihood of his market potentially maxing out at 2 guaranteed years. With Geno turning 35 in July, and his rough ending to the 2025 campaign, it leads one to wonder if other franchises will look at Geno’s incredible first half pace of being more a subject of his environment in Arizona, and less about what he can still provide for a contending team.
To be clear, I think there are several scenarios that would have to occur before the Mariners look to bring back Geno on a short term deal, but given the internal replacement options, as well as the steep jump from Geno to Bregman in terms of years and AAV, it feels like Geno does fit the Mariners best if the hot corner strategy for the front office is going the free agent route.
If Geno is out of the Mariners price range, a long-thought-about trade target in Miguel Andujar would make sense for the organization if they are looking for a short term solution.
Turning 31 next season, Andujar has seen a bit of a career renaissance since leaving New York in 2022. Over the last three seasons, Andujar has carried a .762 OPS and a 113 WRC+ in 750 PAs. A true contact hitter, Andujar rarely walks or strikes out, and is more of a doubles type hitter than being a true slugger.
Andujar does offer positional flexibility, where he played almost an even split of playing time between the infield (1B/3B) and outfield (LF/RF), but flexibility doesn’t necessarily mean quality. Andujar’s defensive metrics have declined pretty steeply over the last two years, after being a roughly average defender for the majority of his career. Spotrac currently slots Andujar at roughly $6m in market value, and would provide the Mariners a little bit of insurance at 1B if need be.
Probability of a 3B Free Agent Signing: 30%
Outfield
Best Fit: Rob Refsnyder
Back-up Fit: Mike Yastrzemski
I’ll preface the outfield discussion with the same insight I offered above - Kyle Tucker is absolutely the best overall fit for the Mariners in RF for the 2026 season and beyond - but, again, ***waves wildly in the direction of ownership*** - there is just no feasible way for me to include Kyle Tucker in any discussions around “best fit” for the Seattle Mariners.
Prove me wrong, John. I double dog dare you.
In the more realistic category of potential fits for the 2026 Seattle Mariners, Rob Refsnyder fits a need that the Mariners likely did not believe was an issue going into 2025, and very well may still not believe is an issue based on the front office’s positioning of Victor Robles and Dominic Canzone.
The Mariners were dreadful against LHP pitching from the RF spot in 2025, to the tune of a 72 WRC+ and .580 OPS, both of which ranked in the bottom third in the majors, while they also ranking in the bottom half of offensive production from the position in general, with a 93 WRC+ and a .665 OPS
Refsnyder, on the other hand, was 4th in the majors in OPS and WRC+ against LHP, ranking only behind Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Jackson Chourio with a minimum of 130 PAs. Already 34 years old, Refsnyder won’t require any type of long term deal, and given his role as a part time player, likely won’t require a large financial investment either. Spotrac currently has Refsnyder at a $4.4m market value, and would provide a financially accessible upgrade on both Victor Robles, and the LHP DH role, which should be open with the likely departure of Mitch Garver.
Mike Yastrzemski also fits the Mariners needs, especially if the organization looks to potentially utilize Dominic Canzone or Luke Raley as trade bait to fill other needs for the roster. Already 35, Yaz falls in the same category of Refsnyder where multiple years and a larger AAV are likely not in his future this off-season, but his production, particularly against RHP has been the definition of consistent for the entirety of his career.
Yaz has only posted one season with a sub 100 WRC+, while providing slightly below league average defense in right field. At this point in his career, there would be no reason for Yaz to ever see a left handed pitcher, but you’d safely be able to slot him in for 450 PAs a year, pending his athletic cliff doesn’t magically appear in his age 35 season.
Yaz’s market value from Spotrac is a little on the high end for the Mariners at $11.3m, especially at his age, but his fit in Seattle is relatively clean on a one year deal to help bridge the gap to eventual options like Lazaro Montes and Jonny Farmelo.
Probability of an OF Free Agent Signing: 10%
Designated Hitter
Best Fit: Jorge Polanco
Back-up Fit: Ryan O’Hearn
Again - we preface with the obvious. Kyle Schwarber would be the best fit for the Mariners in 2026 and beyond.
And again - we state the obvious, that this organization likely has zero interest in giving a 4-5 year deal, with a likely AAV north of $30m, to a 32 year old designated hitter.
Prove me wrong, John. I double dog dare you.
That said, we have already discussed Polanco’s fit with the Mariners for 2026, and despite him being listed at 2B earlier in this write-up, you can expect that his role may also include a significant portion of his ABs at DH, considering the Mariners internal options for a better defensive fit at 2B.
Ryan O’Hearn falls similarly into the Mike Yastrzemski category of being a consistent producer, particularly against RHP, but comes in three years the junior to Yaz.
O’Hearn’s career took a turn for the better in upon being acquired by the Baltimore Orioles in 2023. Since then, O’Hearn has posted a 121 WRC+, with a .788 OPS while splitting his time primarily between 1B, DH and occasionally in RF. Prior to the Mariners acquiring Josh Naylor this deadline, O’Hearn was often considered a sensible fit for the Mariners, especially in 2025 with the lack of production from the 1B, DH and RF positions prior to the trade deadline.
Similar to Yaz, O’Hearn has an estimated market value of $11.4m per Spotrac, but unlike Yaz, O’Hearn will likely be in the market for a multi year deal, which is something this regime has only handed out once in free agency to a positional player, with less than desirable results.
An argument can be made that O’Hearn might actually be a better overall fit for the Mariners if we’re discussing DH only, however his multi year projection makes it a little bit of an odd fit for a front office that has been reluctant to hand out multiyear contracts in past.
Probability of a DH Free Agent Signing: 50%
Relievers
Best Fit: Danny Coulombe
Back-up Fit: Jalen Beeks
I won’t dive too thoroughly into relief pitching fits, as frankly the scope of who’s available in free agency, especially for an org that seemingly decided years ago that spending money on relievers was bad (they aren’t totally wrong here) - but you’ll notice that both fits mentioned here both fill a role that the Mariners had hoped Caleb Ferguson would down the stretch.
Both Coulombe and Beeks would fit nicely into the second left handed pitcher role for the Mariners, a role that feels increasingly more necessary given Gabe Speier’s jump from RHH Death Merchant to legit high leverage reliever regardless of split in 2025.
Coulombe has been one of the better left handed relievers in baseball since 2022, and truly took his performance to another level with Minnesota this season, where he only allowed four runs in 31.1 IP prior to being traded to the Rangers at the deadline. However, following said trade, Coulombe struggled with his command, and posted an unsightly 6.64 FIP in only 12 innings for the Rangers.
At 36, the Mariners could potentially look to take a low cost flier on Coulombe with the idea that his performance in Texas is something that they view more as an outlier, but given his age, his jump in walk rate and his healthily below league average BABIP, the Mariners may look to utilize his projected $4.3m market value money elsewhere.
If the Mariners are looking for a LHP reliever who’s dollar value is likely to be a little bit lower than Coulombe’s - Jalen Beeks could their answers. Beeks is far removed from his peak K/9 days in Tampa Bay where he posted two seasons with a double digit K/9, but his fastball velocity has remained the same over the course of the past few seasons, and he is coming off the best full season of his career since 2022.
That said, Beeks’ ran an incredibly low .231 BABIP this year, while also continuing to see his K/9 stay pretty stagnant in the sevens. In a bullpen that desperately needs more swing and miss, Beeks may just be a repetitive fit to that of Tayler Saucedo, a pitcher I expect them to non-tender this off-season. The key here with Beeks is the financials would likely cost the same as Saucedo, and could be considered a marginal upgrade performance wise.
Probability of a RP Free Agent Signing: 60%
Starting Pitchers
Best Fit: Adrian Houser
Back-up Fit: Dustin May
Admittedly, an acquisition at starting pitcher feels fully contingent on what the Mariners front office decides to do with Luis Castillo this off-season. Personally, it would behoove the Mariners to acquire a starting pitcher regardless, especially coming off a year in which the organization spent multiple months missing a healthy portion of their rotation, while relying on Emerson Hancock and Logan Evans to cover more innings that most would’ve preferred.
If the Mariners move on from Castillo, and chose to not hand the fifth spot in the rotation to Emerson Hancock, Logan Evans or Jurrangelo Cijntje (they should not do any of these things) - they will likely look to fill the backend of their rotation with a short term deal as a bridge to the above mentioned Cijntje, Kade Anderson and inevitably (2027 or later) Ryan Sloan.
Both Houser and May fit in this sense as pitchers who will likely command a 1 year deal with a potential second year player option. Houser may not have the most impressive strikeout stuff, but over 11 starts with the White Sox this season, Houser only allowed home runs on 4.6% of his fly balls, while running a sparkling 2.10 ERA, with a marginally worse 3.34 FIP. It’s tough to judge Houser’s results after being traded to Tampa Bay at the deadline, especially given the environment he was asked to pitch his home games in. His ERA in Tampa more than doubled from his time in Chicago, however his FIP tells a slightly better story, which helps back the narrative that no pitcher should be asked to pitch in that ballpark. Houser’s Spotrac market value projection being at roughly $10.3m might sound steep at first, but given a subsequent Castillo trade would free up a potential $21.6m, the Mariners could view Houser as a suitable replacement with the ability to allocate their funds to other parts of the roster.
Dustin May might be a bit more of a gamble than Houser despite his prospect pedigree and age, but any organization looking to bring in May will likely do so on the idea that they can rediscover the pre-injury version of May who appeared destined to be a staple in Dodgers rotation.
May had a rough 2025, both in Los Angeles and in Boston, in which he ran the second highest BB% and HR/FB% in a full season in his career. The Mariners could view May as a beneficiary of the TMobile affect on fly balls, but would also need to see something they feel they can clean up in regards to his control. Outside of that, May’s fastball velocity has just not returned post injury, and in 2025 ran an average velocity that was nearly 3 mph slower than his averages prior to injuries derailing his career.
May’s Spotrac evaluation comes in much lower than Houser’s at roughly $3.3m, and could even likely be under consideration for the Mariners regardless of whether or not they trade Castillo this off-season. May has the pedigree and past results that teams will certainly take a chance on, but his success moving forward will be completely contingent on an organization being able to fix what was broken in his first season post injury.
Probability of a SP Free Agent Signing: 30%