Off-Season Captain's Log - Part 1

In the first of five installments, we dive into the depths of the off-season, starting with how the roster stands as is - but not before one last word on 2025.

Prologue

I’d like to tell you that I’m doing better following the events of earlier this week, but admittedly, that would be a lie.

Much like the comments made by Jerry Dipoto and Justin Hollander from their end of season media scrum on Thursday, it is going to take time for me to move past the emptiness that consumed me following the final swing and miss from Game 7.

As soon as it was over, I reached for the remote on my table, turned off the television, and proceeded to sit in silence for what felt like an eternity. There was no anger, no sadness, no yells or tears - just silence, and the cold reality of knowing that I was getting off the ride one stop shorter than expected. I, similarly to many of you, had just experienced the most painful sports memory of my life - and for once in my life was left with nothing to say.

Maybe there was a hint of masochism in how I handled the hours and days following Monday, but as I have said to folks close to me behind the scenes - I wanted to truly feel and live in that moment. I wanted to feel the pain and disappointment that The End provided, if only to help callous me for future inevitable heartbreak.

Sports by design are built to crush us, to let us down, to leave us broken and empty - and the worst moment you experience in fandom is only the worst until another one inevitably takes its place. We sign up for this, knowing that the deepest darkest nightmares can always be washed away with One Shining Moment that makes the journey worth it in the end.

Maybe there will never be a Mariners moment that reaches the depths of our souls like Game 7 did. Maybe this was The Final Boss our collective fandom had to face before our step into the rarest of airs in October. Maybe we will be able to sit back a year from now and celebrate the resolve of an organization making its first World Series appearance in franchise history. Maybe.

But for now, we hurt, and do our best to move forward in the hopes of a brighter day.

The Questions Ahead

Despite the Mariners success in 2025, the organization faces a list of roster questions that rivals previous off-seasons. With the (at the moment) departures of Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suárez and likely Jorge Polanco, the Mariners enter the off-season missing the 4th, 5th and 6th hitters that inhabited their lineup for the majority of lineup cards dating back to August.

Other questions remain with the lineup, that for all intents and purposes, truly only have 2-3 sure fire no questions asked members for 2026. Outside of Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh, arguments can be made (for one reason or another) against the likes of JP Crawford, Randy Arozarena, Ben Williamson, Harry Ford, Cole Young, Leo Rivas, Ryan Bliss, Luke Raley, Dominic Canzone and Victor Robles for their positions with the team moving forward. A healthy portion of this group will be back, certainly, but the incumbent offense as is has plenty of room for addition.

The rotation itself remains in tact, however, in-season injuries to Bryce Miller, George Kirby, Bryan Woo and Logan Gilbert have provided fans with the reminder that consistently good (and healthy) pitching is by no means a guarantee. Bryan Woo turned in the best performance of his young career, but there will likely be a level of concern moving forward for a pitcher who threw more innings in 2025 than he had for the entirety of his collegiate career. Luis Castillo, ever The Rock, provided a for-the-most-part steady middle to back end of the rotation presence, but a looming end to his No Trade Clause casts potential doubt on his standing moving forward with the organization, especially after a previous off-season in which the stove boiled over with potential trades revolving around La Piedra.

The bullpen will likely have its usual cast of characters filling the last four spots, but it became increasingly evident through the stretch run that the Mariners were one power arm short of where they needed to be. Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash, Gabe Speier and Eduard Bazardo will all likely be locks going into Opening Day, but it’s tough to make that argument for many others. In a bullpen that voluntarily carried Emerson Hancock, Luke Jackson and Caleb Ferguson in the American League Championship Series due to lack of better options, it seems likely there will be at least a handful of new faces come next April.

The Financials

NOTE: All references of financials will be courtesy of Fangraphs Roster Resource, all contract details will be referenced from Spotrac, and arbitration estimates will be taken from MLBTradeRumors.com as well as Spotrac.

The Guaranteed Contracts

• SP, Luis Castillo - $24.15m, signed through 2027 with a vesting option for 2028.

• C, Cal Raleigh - $12.67m, signed through 2030 with a vesting option for 2031.

• CF, Julio Rodriguez - $20.18m signed through 2029, with conditional club options after 2029 (8 or 10 years), with alternative player options for 2030-2034.

• SS, J.P Crawford - $12m signed through 2026.

• RF, Victor Robles - $5.12m signed through 2026 with a club option in 2027.

There really isn’t too much to dive into for the majority of this list in terms of their likelihood of being a member of the 2026 roster. Julio and Cal are the faces of your franchise, and both have been extended with the intent of both of them being future Mariners HOFers and quite possibly retired numbers as well.

Victor Robles had a bit of a lost season after a brutal shoulder injury forced him to miss the majority of 2025. When healthy, Robles struggled for the most part across the board, but his presence did seem to help spark the clubhouse in the miracle run through September. At $5.1m for 2026, there is likely minimal trade interest in him following a lost season, and is likely slated for regular playing time next season in right field.

J.P Crawford, perhaps one of the more polarizing profiles of players to the fanbase, more likely than not will be the Mariners starting shortstop again for 2026. A leader in the clubhouse, and lynchpin of the Mariners rebuilding era, J.P has more than lost a step defensively, but still provides good on base skills and the ability to get hot and carry the bottom of the lineup for weeks at a time. At $12m, J.P would potentially net some value in a trade if the Mariners wanted to look to reallocate funds elsewhere - but it seems farfetched to believe that the organization would choose now, of all times, to pull the cord on J.P’s tenure, given it’s reluctance to do so in past.

The wild card of the under contract players for 2026, needless to say, will be Luis Castillo. In 2025, Luis continued to show a decline in average fastball velocity for the 6th season in a row, while also seeing his xERA and xFIP climb for the fourth season in row. However, the Mariners are likely not in the playoffs if not for Luis’ ability to be a steadying presence in a rotation that missed large chunks of time from 60% of it’s projected 2025 rotation.

With that said, the Mariners, similarly to Robbie Ray, included a No-Trade Clause with an expiration date when they signed Luis to an extension in September of 2022, which is set to expire on January 1st, 2026. On the heels of a 2024-25 off-season where Castillo’s name was widely available in trade talks, it does seem at least likely that the Mariners will revisit those discussions again over the next few months. As the highest paid player on the team with obvious signs of regression, the Mariners could look to re-allocate Castillo’s contract to other pending free agents, or potentially look to fill a hole elsewhere by taking back a similar type contract. Of all the potential moves on the roster this off-season, the decision with Castillo could likely wind up being the most decisive move (or non-move) made by the front office.

Club, Player and Mutual Options

• C, Mitch Garver - $12m club option for 2026

• 2B/DH, Jorge Polanco - $6m player option for 2026

• RP, Andrés Muñoz - $7m club option for 2026, $8m club in 2027, $10m club in 2028

All three of the Mariners option players have pretty straight forward decisions from either the player or the club.

Mitch Garver, who was originally signed to a 2/$24m contract in 2024 has been a let down in terms of what was expected of him by the club. After a poor 2024, Garver settled in to a backup catcher role for 2025. Given how the organization operates from a financial standpoint, as well as the minimal ups and several downs from Garver in his time in Seattle, the club will all but certainly decline his $12m mutual option in 2026, and give him his $1m option to move on.

Jorge Polanco on the other hand, rebounded significantly from a very down 2024 mired by a reported leg injury that sapped him offensively. Polanco responded as one of the most consistent every day bats for the Mariners in 2025, and almost certainly guaranteed himself a higher payday than the $6m player option he was set to receive for the 2026 season. Polanco will very likely opt out of his deal, though it would not surprise anyone if the Mariners are aggressive in retaining his services for 2026 and beyond. With little certainty at the second base position, or the DH role, Polanco would fit the Mariners well moving forward as long as the bat plays as it did in 2025. The Mariners will likely face stiff competition for Polanco’s services next season - but considering Polanco chose the Mariners over other more hitter friendly options, one has to wonder if Polanco will choose the most money over the most comfort if the Mariners are willing to make a competitive offer.

Finally, Andrés Muñoz appears to be an even easier decision than Mitch Garver in terms of a player option. Muñoz put together the most dominant performance of his career, and solidified himself as one of the best closers in the league. Muñoz will 100% be back as the Mariners closer for 2026, and likely beyond.

Arbitration Eligible Players

• Randy Arozarena

  • MLBTR Projected - $18.2m

  • Spotrac Projected - $16m

• Trent Thornton

  • MLBTR Projected - $2.5m

  • Spotrac Projected - $3m

• Logan Gilbert

  • MLBTR Projected -$10m

  • Spotrac Projected - $11.5m

• Gabe Speier

  • MLBTR Projected - $1.7m

  • Spotrac Projected - $1.75m

• George Kirby

  • MLBTR Projected - $5.4m

  • Spotrac Projected - $6.5m

• Luke Raley

  • MLBTR Projected - $1.8m

  • Spotrac Projected - $1.75m

• Matt Brash

  • MLBTR Projected - $1.8m

  • Spotrac Projected - $1.75m

• Gregory Santos

  • MLBTR Projected - $800k

  • Spotrac Projected - $850k

• Bryce Miller

  • MLBTR Projected - $2.4m

  • Spotrac Projected - $2.5m

• Tayler Saucedo

  • MLBTR Projected - $1.1m

  • Spotrac Projected - $1.25m

A quick and easy overview of this group can eliminate Bryce Miller, Gregory Santos, Matt Brash, Luke Raley, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Gabe Speier and Randy Arozarena from conversations. All of these players will almost certainly have contracts tendered to them upon the arbitration deadline in early January.

This does not exclude them from potentially being traded, but it is all but a certainty that contracts will be extended to the list of players above. That said, there are various arguments to be made in regards to the future statuses of players like Luke Raley (repetitive skill set, lack of performance) and Randy Arozarena (financials) - but given the lack of benefit for non-tendering a player and allowing them to go to free agency without return compensation, both players should be a part of the projected 2026 roster unless the front office finds trade partners for them at some point during the off-season.

The two names not listed in the previous group, Trent Thornton and Tayler Saucedo face much less certain futures with the organization.

Thornton, who suffered a season ending achilles injury shortly after the 2025 trade deadline, will likely be non-tendered given his projected $2.5-$3m arbitration number, given the lack of certainty surrounding his availability for the 2026 season. Even if the Mariners choose to non-tender Thornton, it’s always possible the organization could look to bring him back on a minor league contract to allow him to continue to rehab under their supervision.

Saucedo struggled from the jump with the Mariners this year, and is almost certain to be non-tendered this off-season. Already 32, Saucedo experienced the worst season of his career and is set to make north of $1m in the 2026 season in arbitration. Given the Mariners strategy of not consistently carrying multiple left handers in the bullpen, Saucedo will likely be looking at minor league contract options only for the 2026 season.

Pre-Arbitration Players

• RP, Eduard Bazardo

• RP, Carlos Vargas

• SP, Bryan Woo

• RF/DH, Dominic Canzone

• UTIL, Miles Mastrobuoni

• C, Harry Ford

• 2B, Cole Young

• 2B, Ryan Bliss

• 2B, Leo Rivas

• 3B, Ben Williamson

There are other plays who can also be listed amongst this group, but for the sake of this exercise, we will only be reviewing those who spent meaningful time with the team this year at the major league level.

The are really only two questions with this group as a whole. The first revolves around the crowded second base situation, and what the Mariners will do moving forward. Cole Young and Leo Rivas both showed moments of success with the team this year, but neither showed enough that warrants being handed the starting 2B job out of camp. Ryan Bliss, who was slotted as the starter at the beginning of the year, had an injury plagued season, and is still a bit of a question mark heading into 2026 after suffering a meniscus tear in his right knee in September on his rehab back from a bicep rupture in April.

The other question for the Mariners heading into 2026 revolves around Ben Williamson, and whether or not the club will feel comfortable with him in a starters role at the major league level. Williamson showed great flashes defensively in 2025, but ranked 39th out of 45 third baseman this year in terms of WRC+ with a minimum of 250 PAs. The Mariners will likely look to upgrade at 3B this off-season, as mentioned by Justin Hollander during the media scrum on Thursday. Williamson likely will have a chance to earn a roster spot out of camp, but barring injuries, should start the 2026 season in Tacoma.

The group that faces the fewest (or zero) questions about being back on the 2026 major league roster includes Bryan Woo, Carlos Vargas, Eduard Bazardo, Harry Ford and Dominic Canzone.

In theory, there is potential that Vargas or Canzone could be used as trade bait in the off-season. Vargas has no options remaining, and would likely not clear waivers if the Mariners chose to go a different route out of camp. Canzone showed growth with his bat this year, but is a liability in the field and offers little base running value.

The most likely member of this group to not be back with the team in 2026 is Miles Mastrobuoni, who no longer has any minor league options remaining. For a team with World Series aspirations, it seems unlikely that Mastrobuoni will accept an outright to the minor leagues, and will likely find himself in free agency this winter.

Free Agents

• 1B, Josh Naylor

• 3B, Eugenio Suárez

• RP, Caleb Ferguson

Let’s start with the easier parts of this group.

Caleb Ferguson, who the Mariners acquired from the Pirates for Jeter Martinez at the trade deadline, will almost certainly not be back with the Mariners in 2026. Though his performance post deadline from a 5,000 foot view (3.27 ERA, 3.41 FIP) might not look bad, Ferguson saw a significant jump in his HR/FB rate, while also seeing a slight increase in his BB/9 in 22 innings with the Mariners. Add in that Ferguson became a liability in the postseason, and in this author’s opinion, was a questionable at best member of the ALCS roster, and you can see why the organization will likely look elsewhere this off-season for a second left handed option out of the pen if they choose to carry one.

Though the reunion with Eugenio Suárez did carry some incredibly memorable playoff moments for the Mariners and their fans a like, the organization unfortunately got significantly more bad than good in his 220 regular season PAs back in a Mariners uniform. Geno saw a huge spike in strikeouts, running a rate more than five points higher than any other full season in his career. Combine that with a slugging percentage that dipped nearly 150 points lower than he had in his time in Arizona in 2025, and you can probably understand why the organization will hold some serious reservations on whether or not to bring back Geno for 2026 and beyond.

Despite his struggles in Seattle, Geno will be the second best pure 3B on the open market this year behind Alex Bregman, and will likely be able to command a multi year deal with an AAV that should be at least even ($15m) with what he was making this season. Maybe there’s a path for Geno to stay in Seattle if he’s willing to take less, but given he’ll turn 35 in the middle of 2026, it feels likely that Geno will try and grab one more payday before hanging up the cleats for good.

Finally, there is Josh Naylor.

Pay him. That’s the analysis. This author doesn’t care about the years, financials or alternate solutions - Pay. Josh. Naylor.

What’s Next?

As I said above - this will be the first of five installments reviewing the 2026 Mariners off-season. The schedule of release will vary, but the plan is for the entirety of the installments to be released prior to the General Manager Meetings in Las Vegas, starting on November 10th - that said, here is the order of releases:

1. 2026 Mariners Roster As Is

2. Free Agent Fits per Position

3. Trade Targets per Position

4. The “Jerry and Justin” Off-Season Plan (how I think they’ll handle the off-season)

5. My Off-Season Plan (how I would handle the off-season in Jerry and Justin’s shoes)

To put a bow on all of this, let me thank you all for reading my sporadic releases over this past season. As promised, this will always be a free publication, and I will try my damndest to provide insight, input and opinion that all of you deserve.

The 2025 season may not have ended the way we all had hoped, but for this author, the best way to move on is to move forward. One day, I’ll be able to look back at 2025 fondly, and appreciate the beauty that this season provided, one day.

But for now, we sail on, wind at our backs, in search of the paradise we hope to one day find.

Photo Courtesy of Nick Wagner of The Seattle Times