Not All Ideas Are Good Ones - Perhaps Even This One
My words were tired, but since when has that stopped anyone?
I haven’t consistently written about anything for over 10 years.
18 months of having my soul removed through my nostrils by my oft targeted former ‘employer’ Bleacher Report left my words sour, and dry.
The fine gentlemen of the now deceased Dome and Bedlam allowed me to scribe occasionally, for which I am forever grateful, but even then it felt like a lot of my words were forced. This had nothing to do with the tremendous folks within that group, but more so my continued issues with finding words I felt others would actually want to read.
However - with the recent reports on the Mariners growing likelihood of trading Professional Baseball Thrower/180° Fist Pumper Luis Castillo - I felt it necessary to haphazardly put together my long discussed idea of a Substack, subsequently titled: Words from the Wharf.
How haphazardly will be determined by my future posting on this fine place - but I can promise you that there will never be paywalls.
I am happy talking about the Mariners because I am a glutton for punishment, and I am happy to do it for free.
Heath Ledger once said “If you're good at something, never do it for free” - well, I will never be the one to proclaim I am good at anything. But if you, fine reader, are willing to read - I am willing to write for you.
So now that our pleasantries are out of the way - let’s get to the gist of post.
Trading Luis Castillo is a Choice…
…and to be clear, it is a very dumb choice.
I often try to talk through things on Elon’s Hellscape through the periscope of how the organization is choosing to operate. I find it a waste in energy to put together off-season plans where I spend $500M, trade every prospect, and MLB The Show my way to a World Series.
That said, the Luis Castillo trade concept is one that I truly can not find my way through.
It’s not that I don’t understand the process of the how and why, because I do.
It’s not that I don’t see exactly what Jerry and Justin are trying to do with the financial restrictions they are being given, because I do.
No, my issue is the inability to see a reasonable trade proposal, where I actually believe the Mariners will come out on top.
I do believe Luis Castillo, in a vacuum, has a very powerful trade value, especially in a market where lesser pitchers of older age are earning contracts that are equal to or greater than Luis.
What I do not believe is that there is a team out there willing to part with a package that truly justifies the concept of trading the rock (see what I did there) of your staff.
To review, the primary teams that have been connected to Luis Castillo over the last 48-72 hours have been Boston, Chicago (the one with the bear who doesn’t wear pants), Philadelphia, New York (the cheap ones) and Baltimore. All of these teams have interesting pieces, be it in major league talent or in the minor league system, and all of these teams have varying levels of need for frontline pitching.
The difficulty I reach here, especially with the above mentioned teams, and the needs for the Mariners themselves - is that I can not find a combination of ready made Major League talent that to me justifies a trade for Seattle, or for the teams receiving Luis Castillo.
To be clear, Luis Castillo is a value at what he is being paid. I’m not going to use this post to dive into Fangraphs, Baseball Savant or any of those fine sites - but I don’t think I need to in order to illustrate Castillo’s value relative to the current market.
The Mariners do not need to and therefore should not, trade Luis Castillo unless there is a package in front of them that forces their hand.
Everyone Has a Price…
…but you’re trusting the gentleman in charge of price evaluation to get that price correct.
Being as blunt as I can be - It is incredibly difficult for me to trust this front office to hit 21 on the blackjack table with Luis Castillo as their wager - and when trading from the ONE strength your organization has on it’s major league roster, there is no room to hit on anything less.
It’s not just subtracting from a strength - it’s the weakening of the supposed foundation you built the organization on. This organization has been yelling ‘hit me’ on 15 for years with the health of their starting pitching, but sooner or later the house always wins.
Simply put, removing Luis Castillo voluntarily from your rotation, and backfilling with quite literally any reasonably available option is firmly a downgrade - and with the ever increasing odds that the card you so desperately yelled for will be higher than a six, it only feels cosmic that the year you break up the band, will be the year you get the Jack.
More importantly, this organization has for years shown a below average (at best) ability to identify major league quality hitting - again, similar to not citing Fangraphs or Savant, I will not roll out the hits of yester-years - we all know who they are.
The purpose of moving Luis Castillo, clearly, is to reallocate your financial resources from your pitching staff to better fill out your every day lineup - and we’re trusting… who… exactly to get that right? Yeah. Him.
With that said - when it comes to trading Luis Castillo…
Doing Nothing is Better…
…and it’s especially better than being busy doing nothing.
To me, that’s what this is. Trading Luis Castillo to add bats is the definition of being busy doing nothing.
Simply put, the current roster as is, while adding…
(deeeeeeeep breathe…. loooooooonnnnnng siiiiiighhhh)
… Hye-Seong Kim, Carlos Santana and Yoan Moncada, is most likely an 85-87 win team across most projections.
Meanwhile, trading Luis Castillo for a…
Nico Hoerner based package
While reallocating your funds for…
Christian Walker
Yoan Moncada
Having Logan Evans (or a pitcher acquired via Castillo) as a 5 Starter
…is also most likely an 85-87 win team, with a much higher risk of having your one strength come crashing down given your downgrade in the rotation to start.
This is just an unnecessary risk necessitated from an organization run by a group of risk adverse owners and baseball executives setting arbitrary limitations to maximize their profits if/when the slap on 15 yields the 21 all the way to October.
I understand the idea - but not all ideas are good ones.
First of all, this was well written and fun to read. The crack at the Yankees definitely made me chuckle. Thank you for putting in the effort.
That being said, I do disagree with you. My thought is that the Mariners best strategy would be to reserve a spot in the rotation for bounce back candidates and trade assets. Flipping that starter whenever possible to improve the team. This would allow both the pitcher and team to take advantage of the run suppression at T-Mobile Park and the extra value that it gives to pitchers. A one year deal with team option flipped yearly at the trade deadline given to someone with a good chance to improve their value in the first half of the season(John Means, Anthony Desclafani, Cal Quantrill...).
I am also of the opinion that the Mariners would likely be selling high on Luis Castillo. He is noticably trending down in velocity and stuff (K-Rate, velocity, FIP and overall WAR) and 31 is old for a starting pitcher.
Prioritizing a 3rd baseman via trade would allow them to use the salary relief to sign one of the better 1st baseman on the market. There also appears to be a good amount of big league ready 3B talents that could be blocked (Coby Mayo, Marcelo Mayer, Noelvi Marte... ).