Navigating The 2025 Trade Deadline
How I'm completing the roster in three trades.
Author’s Note: This article is being pieced together over the weekend series against the Houston Astros, so any references to current statistics may be dated upon release.
With the All Star Break now in the rearview mirror, and the trade deadline less than two weeks away - the Mariners find themselves positioned to be one of the more aggressive buyers leading into the August 1st Trade Deadline.
Over the past month on X, I have crowd sourced input on mock trades on how the organization could better position themselves to be threats to not only the AL West crown, but for a potential October run - one that hasn’t been experienced for this fan base since the infancy stages of the new millennium. For those who have followed along, you have likely noticed that I omitted certain trade routes - particularly the most mentioned trade partners that have made sense for the organization’s biggest needs.
Initially, this was done as an exercise to avoid the obvious, and to not contribute to the dozens of similar trade proposals that you could find through any Mariners content creator. This was also done from the perspective that I was not ready to throw out proposals for the targets that we would identify as likely, and would require the most time and effort when constructing. Point blank, making realistic trades is incredibly difficult, especially when your fandom is skewed towards one organization getting their wants and needs. That difficulty is amplified when you likely have to assume the wants and needs of the partner organization, and need to do so without insight on player evaluations, traits, skill sets and organizational timelines.
But with less than two weeks remaining until the final iteration of the 2025 Seattle Mariners is debuted, it’s time to put up or shut up, and throw my weight behind a deadline strategy that I believe can give the Mariners the roster necessary to play meaningful baseball deep into October.
Author’s Note: All prospect rankings in these proposals will be from the most updated Fangraphs prospect rankings list.
Trade 1: The Arizona Diamondbacks
Seattle Receives: 1B Josh Naylor and 3B Eugenio Suárez
Arizona Receives: SHP Jurrangelo Cijntje (#4), RHP Chia-Shi Shen (NR) and OF Victor Labrada (NR)
Arguably the Mariners biggest need coming into the deadline is at both corner positions in the infield, where they currently rank 18th in OPS at both.
At first base, some of this can be contributed to Luke Raley missing a large portion of the season with an oblique injury - that said, Raley is by no means a practical first baseman, and is only in position there due to the lack of options the Mariners have internally. To make matters worse, the Mariners have no logical 1B option to play against LHP currently, as both Solano (.452 OPS vs. LHP) and Raley (.234 OPS vs LHP) have struggled mightily.
Enter Josh Naylor.
Naylor is by no means some lefty masher, but his .666 OPS vs. LHP would be a noticeable upgrade over the current platoon, and would provide the Mariners with an every day first baseman. Both Raley (.797 OPS vs. RHP in 136 PAs) and Solano (.875 OPS vs. RHP in 69 PAs) have faired much better in small sample sizes against RHP, but are still behind Naylor’s production (.880 OPS vs. RHP in 263 PAs), which has come against a larger sample size than both players combined.
Josh Naylor is a rental, but at 28 years old, and as a player that Jerry Dipoto has targeted before, Naylor could potentially be viewed as a player the Mariners would look to re-sign in the off-season to be their 1B moving forward.
At third base, Ben Williamson has been one of the worst every day offensive players since his debut in April. His .603 OPS ranks 196th out of 209 players with at least 250 PAs this season, and despite his very positive DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) grades, has only been worth 0.4 fWAR in 262 PAs. From a comparison point, Williamson has essentially been a slightly worse defensive version of Ke’Bryan Hayes, a player who would have likely been benched, traded or DFA’d by now if not for being given an extension from the Pirates back in 2022. Williamson is already 24, and has zero history in the minor leagues, or his collegiate days, indicating that any power will develop over time. There is a path for Williamson to become a fine 26th man on a roster if he’s capable of expanding his defensive prowess to other positions and settling into a utility role - but for a team looking to contend for the division title, and more, Williamson is just not an acceptable every day option at one of the more premier offensive positions in the sport.
This brings us to our good friend and vibe lord, Eugenio Suárez.
There really is no need to dive in to what Geno would bring to the Mariners down the stretch. Frankly, if not for a frugal (being kind here) ownership group, there’s a very real possibility that Eugenio Suárez would still be a Mariner right now.
Yes, there were strikeout and decline concerns for Geno when the Mariners traded him back at the end of 2023, but the facts are pretty straight forward that the Mariners preferred to spend Geno’s owed money elsewhere, and felt comfortable moving forward with the “5 fWAR Combined Player” of Luis Urias and Josh Rojas, both of whom are no longer with the organization.
Bluntly put, Jerry Dipoto has a chance to redeem himself (ever so slightly) by reacquiring the player he should never have dealt in the first place, and by doing so, would be making the largest upgrade at a singular position that any team will make this deadline.
The Compensation:
So I’m sure this part of the write-up is where I’m going to lose a healthy portion of folks. The concept of not trading high end prospects for rentals is not lost on me, but when you’re assembling a trade for arguably the two most valuable rental bats on the market, beggars really can’t be choosers.
I toiled back and forth on whether or not I felt a Logan Evans and Brandyn Garcia trade would be viable, but I kept coming back to a handful of points that blocked me:
Would Arizona take multiple mid-tier prospects over a high end one?
How does Arizona view Logan Evans as a starter?
Does Arizona believe Brandyn Garcia is an immediate future high leverage reliever?
Could Arizona get better packages separately?
How would the Mariners handle my proposed deadline where you’re relying on Bryce Miller (injuries) and Emerson Hancock (bad) to be your fifth starter?
These questions kept bringing me back to one main question that will likely determine the landing spot for Eugenio Suárez, and in this case, Josh Naylor as well:
Can the Cubs or Yankees realistically offer a better pitching prospect than Jurrangelo Cijntje, and would Arizona be happier with the combined returns of both Naylor and Suárez in separate trades to pass up on Cijntje?
For me, I think the answer is no.
Cijntje’s calling card is that he is a switch handed pitcher offering a wrinkle that no other pitcher has been realistically capable of doing at the major league level. That said, his ability to be a switch pitcher has been exposed at the minor league level as seen below; but that doesn’t make him any lesser of a prospect in general:
Objectively, Cijntje is a high end RHP prospect who has the party trick of being able to throw with his left arm. As impressive as it is that he’s capable of doing both, his ability to consistently retire hitters from the south paw side at A+ Ball just doesn’t offer much more than the occasional opportunity to deploy him from the bullpen if he develops more, or occasionally deploying him against LHH’s who struggle mightily against LHP.
Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs offered this feedback on where Cijntje sits as a prospect now, and where he could sit moving forward:
He’s again working left-handed at times so far as a pro, and has the look of a specialist from that side, sitting in the low 90s with natural cut and struggling to locate his slider. As a righty, he’s sitting in the mid-90s and has been up to 99; he also has a potential plus changeup from that side, and has added a sweeper since joining the Mariners. Continued growth for his secondary stuff seems feasible because he’s had fewer reps (from both sides) than any other pitcher with the same number of innings, and Cijntje’s amateur changeup usage was limited because he was more often facing same-sided hitters. At its best, the change has power action in the 87-90 mph range like Ronel Blanco‘s cambio. The rise/run action on Cijntje’s righty fastball creates bat-missing tail in the high/arm-side quadrant of the zone.
There’s a chance Cijntje ends up only pitching right-handed. He has a robust repertoire from that side, including the tools to deal with left-handed batters. Perhaps more likely than mid-game switching, he could start as a righty and then could be used as a lefty specialist between starts so that his right arm can have a more normal recovery. It looked like this might be how the Mariners were going to play things at the start of the 2025 season, but he has returned to occasionally working left-handed within games he’s starting righty. He has mid-rotation projection as a righty, and his overall profile is seasoned by the unique nature of his switch-pitching background, as well as his potential to keep doing it.
Regardless of Cijntje’s ability to develop his LHP repertoire, he is still a universally agreed upon top 100 pitching arm who would likely be in AA for Arizona at the beginning of 2026, with an outside possibility of breaking into their rotation, or joining their bullpen, by the end of the year.
Cijntje would slide in as an on par FV prospect with the Diamondbacks current top pitching prospect Yilber Diaz - but Cijntje would be two and a half years his junior, and doesn’t come with nearly the amount of control issues that Diaz has struggled with throughout his career. In the modern day trade deadline where top 100 prospects are traded less frequently (zero in 2024), landing Cijntje feels like the appropriate compensation for the Diamondbacks who would be forfeiting two compensation level draft picks in the 2026 MLB Draft.
The Diamondbacks have reportedly made it very clear that any sell off in 2025 will require pitching as a return - so any additional pieces coming back from the Mariners will likely need to come from their pitching ranks.
Given Cijntje’s value, I was not willing to give up any type of closer to MLB ready prospects (Morales, Izzi, Garcia), however there are still options that the Diamondbacks could find interesting as long term options.
Chia-Shi Shen, an international signee from Taiwan in 2024, currently sits in A ball at 21 years old after making his stateside debut earlier this season in the Complex League.
After 7 appearances in the Complex League, a 10.93 K/9 and a 1.93 ERA over 28 innings, the Mariners decided to push him forward to Modesto, where Shen has settled in with decent results.
Through 3 starts in Modesto, Shen has thrown 15 innings with a 7.20 K/9 and an ERA (5.40) that is currently a run and a half higher than his FIP.
MLB Prospect Pipeline offered this insight:
A 6-foot-3 hurler with a starter profile, Shen has a solid frame and displays excellent athleticism on the mound. The stuff may not wow anyone, but his feel for pitching might. He’ll typically sit around 92 mph with his fastball and can touch 95. He has an above-average changeup he sells well with good deception. He has feel for spinning a slider, but there’s not quite enough power or bite on the breaker just yet.
All of Shen’s stuff does play up because he can throw all three offerings for strikes and knows how to miss bats by mixing his repertoire well and keeping hitters off-balance. His ceiling might be a bit limited, but his pitchability could help him move a bit more quickly and become a back-end starter in the big leagues.
Admittedly, I have not watched much of Shen outside of the occasional clip from Mariners Minors on X - but if the focus for Arizona is continue to stockpile pitching options for the future, Shen fits the bill well.
Though Arizona is said to be focused on pitching in return for both Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor, it doesn’t mean that they are limiting themselves to just that.
Victor Labrada, a 2021 International Free Agent signing out of Cuba, is in the midst of a some what breakout season where some off-season adjustments have seen him perform well above his career averages. Labrada was left off of the Mariners Top 29 on Fangraphs, but had this blurb:
Labrada is high-motored, plus-plus running left fielder who seems to have made some adjustments at Double-A and is striking out much less so far in 2025. He has fifth outfielder ceiling.
Labrada’s 2025 OPS (.845) is currently 70 points above his career average, which can be attributed to his adjustments to his approach at the plate. His 16.3% K rate is currently set to be the lowest of his career, while his 13.6% BB rate is also set to be the highest of his career.
Currently in AAA at the age of 25, and Rule 5 eligible, the Diamondbacks would need to view Labrada as a potential Alek Thomas replacement for him to really fit here, as Thomas has continued to struggle offensively in his fourth season in Arizona. Despite having Corbin Carroll in their outfield, Arizona has some what struggled with production at those three positions in 2025, and currently ranks 18th with a 99 WRC+.
Given Thomas’ struggles offensively, as well as not necessarily grading out as an elite defender, Labrada could be worth the flyer for Arizona as a final piece in this deal.
Trade 2: The Kansas City Royals
Seattle Receives: RHP Lucas Erceg
Kansas City Receives: OF Dominic Canzone and RHP Teddy McGraw (#20)
As much as the corner infield positions have been an issue for the Mariners this year, an argument can be made that every arm not named Muñoz, Brash and Speier in their bullpen has been a question mark at best through the first 100ish games of the season. As of July 20th, the Mariners only have three relievers with a sub 3.50 FIP (minimum 10 IP) in their bullpen, and currently rank 18th in K/9 and BB/9 amongst all bullpens. Below you can see the 9 relievers who the Mariners have used for more than 10 innings this season, and well, the results aren’t ideal.
I know most names that will be mentioned as top end relievers at the deadline will come from the David Bednar, Griffin Jax, Félix Bautista, Jhoan Durán, Emmanuel Clase department; but realistically, I struggled to find the right matches on either where I wasn’t doing one of the following:
Sending out prospects I don’t think the organization would be willing to
Taking on more money than I think the organization would be willing to
Having the right pieces to make a trade work on both sides
Given I was already planning on adding roughly $10-11m in the Suárez/Naylor deal, I narrowed my focus to controllable relievers who were either in, or entering arbitration, would offer an above average chase and whiff percentage and was currently employed by an organization who was in need of controllable major league outfield help.
Why outfield help you ask?
With the addition of Josh Naylor, the Mariners would run into a bit of a roster crunch where they would have two redundant right fielders in Dominic Canzone and Luke Raley. The argument could be made that you could move one of them to DH, but the resurgence of Jorge Polanco (.744 OPS, 114 WRC+ since June 1st) makes it a little trickier to find DH at bats, especially when you’re utilizing Mitch Garver/Cal Raleigh in the DH spot for LHP.
Yes - there is an avenue where you could send Dominic Canzone to AAA for a month until rosters expand in September - but given Canzone’s lack of positional flexibility and athleticism, as well as the pending return of Victor Robles in September, Canzone likely holds more trade value than roster value moving forward - especially when you consider that he’s under contract through 2030, and has contributed a .949 OPS with a 171 WRC+ over 99 PAs since his call-up back on June 9th.
With all that said - Lucas Erceg fits the bill for the Mariners as a multiple year controlled leverage reliever, who would likely take over the 7th/8th inning pending availability on a night to night basis.
Admittedly, Erceg has seen a significant dip in his K/9 (10.51 in 2024, 7.71 in 2025), but this has also come with a significant jump in GB% (46.5 % in 2025, 57% in 2025), while not seeing a noticeable dip in his velocity. You can likely attribute this swing in values based on the dip in slider run value in 2025, while seeing an uptick in his two seam FB value as seen below:
Ideally, the Mariners would find a way to identify what has caused Erceg to lose effectiveness in his slider, while potentially abandoning his changeup (16% usage rate) all together. Erceg, similar to Canzone, is under control until the 2030 season, and would provide the Mariners with an additional high leverage reliever for the 2025 pennant chase, and beyond.
The Compensation:
I won’t rehash too much here on what I mentioned above, but Canzone has elevated his trade value significantly since his call-up on June 9th.
Since that date - Dominic Canzone ranks the following amongst 216 players with at least 90 PAs:
WRC+, 14th (171)
SLG, 18th (.585)
OPS, 20th (.949)
fWAR, 62nd (0.9)
Yup, that’s right, Dominic Canzone has been in the 90th percentile of all hitters in terms of slugging, OPS and WRC+ over the past six weeks - and the changes have been noticeable.
Canzone has dropped his K rate by over 10% from 2024 to 2025, and it’s coming from his ability to identify and punish off-speed pitching, with marginal growth in facing sliders, curveballs and sweepers, as seen below.
Now, while what Canzone has done in 2025 for the Mariners is important, selling him as the top piece to the Kansas City Royals requires some explanation as well.
Simply put, Kansas City’s offensive production from the outfield has been dreadful. Amongst all teams, the Royals outfield production currently ranks:
OPS - Last (.594)
SLG - Last (.323)
OBP - Last (.271)
K% - 23rd (21%)
BB% - Last (6.1%)
To put a player comparison on the production that the Royals have received from their outfield, they have essentially deployed Luis Rengifio in three daily lineup spots this season; and for a better visual view, here is how Rengifio has looked over 342 PAs:
Now, the Royals have recently added Jac Caglianone to their outfield mix, but this has come with some less than promising results (.143/.203/.263, 25 WRC+), and ideally, Caglianone is better suited as the Royals 1B of the future if'/when they decide to move on from Vinnie Pasquantino.
Additionally, the Royals have one outfield prospect who currently ranks in their top 15 via Fangraphs, and that prospect is currently a 19 year old speedster with no slug to speak of with a total of 362 PAs above the Complex League.
With an ownership group that is just as, if not more, frugal than the Mariners group, the most realistic avenue for the Royals to add to their outfield would be via trade, and Dominic Canzone’s resurgence, as well as his control, could be the right piece to get the Royals to part with a key piece of their bullpen.
There is a potential that both organizations could agree that a straight-up swap of Erceg and Canzone would be fair compensation, especially given the matching control, and Canzone being three years the junior of Erceg in terms of age.
However, given Erceg’s track record of being a reliable back-end of the bullpen option over the past two years, as well as Canzone’s value being dependent on how a team may value the changes and corresponding results seen in the past six weeks, I felt it necessary to add a bit of a lottery ticket sweetener for the Royals to agree to part with an arbitration eligible high leverage reliever.
Teddy McGraw is very much the definition of lottery ticket, but certainly not due to his stuff. McGraw is the lottery ticket he is due to his long injury history which includes two Tommy John surgeries before throwing a single pitch out of college.
When healthy, McGraw has high-end stuff, but the days of him being projected as a starter may be over. The Mariners have used him as a starter so far in 2025, but over 9 appearances (8 starts) McGraw has only thrown 18.2 IP. As a member of the Mariners Top 29 Fangraphs List, Eric Longenhagen offered this insight into McGraw’s current offerings, as well as how he could project moving forward:
McGraw’s fastball has averaged 95 mph during those rehab outings. He’s going to need all of that velo for his fastball to be effective because it has lackluster movement. That and McGraw’s injury history are the main factors leading to his relief projection here. McGraw’s secondary stuff invites development as a starter because both his slider and changeup are excellent, and give him the tools to compete with hitters of either handedness. His 85-89 mph gyro slider has late two-plane break and has looked better during his recent rehab outings than it did last season. His 89 mph changeup has nasty late tailing action and sink. Though he’s a crude strike-thrower, McGraw has missed a large percentage of the last five years and is undoubtedly underdeveloped as a craftsman because of it. He merits a long look as a starter but is more likely to be a good middle reliever, possibly one of the multi-inning variety.
McGraw will be Rule 5 eligible in December of 2026, so Kansas City will have time to see if McGraw is capable of being a starter at the major league level, but could ultimately decide that his value as a multi-inning reliever could be worth adding him to the 40 man roster in order to protect him in 2026.
Trade 3: The Minnesota Twins
Seattle Receives: RHP Justin Topa
Minnesota Receives: RHP Charlie Beilenson (NR)
File this under the “Re-Acquirement” category that former Mariners reliever J.T. Chargois fell in last year. A familiar face that the organization knows, who fills a need as a more reliable backend bullpen option for the playoff stretch.
Justin Topa had a very impressive 2023 with the Mariners where he served as the sixth inning/bridge man to get to the trio of Paul Sewald, Matt Brash and Andres Muñoz, that is, until he became a member of the trio after Sewald was traded to Arizona at the deadline.
Following the 2023 season, Topa was involved in the Jorge Polanco trade that sent Topa, Darren Bowen, Anthony DeSclafani and Gabriel Gonzalez to Minnesota in exchange for current Mariners 2B/DH Jorge Polanco. Unfortunately for Topa, he would go on to the majority of the 2024 season due to a knee injury, only logging 2.1 IP over 3 appearances.
With the injury behind him, Topa has had a mostly healthy 2025, which relatively mirrors his 2023 performance with the Mariners. His ERA is almost a run an a half higher, but his FIP, K/9 and BB/9 are all inline with his previous stint, while he’s also run a lower HR/9 despite running a higher combined Fly Ball/Line Drive rate.
Admittedly, Topa’s pitch values are not up to par with his 2023 performance (see below), but the role the Mariners are acquiring him for wouldn’t require him to be pitching in the leverage positions he was asked to perform in for 2023.
In a scenario where you are adding Lucas Erceg to assume the role of 2023 Justin Topa - the 2025 role of Justin Topa would likely be the ‘keep it close role’, and would push bullpen arms like Juan Burgos, Casey Legumina or potentially Carlos Vargas (no options remaining) off of the roster.
The Compensation:
The compensation for a 34 year old reliever at the deadline, especially one who isn’t serving in a current high leverage role for his existing team isn’t typically steep - but what Topa does have going for him is an extra year of control in 2026, as well as 2 MiLB options.
Beilenson was a 2024 5th round pick for the Mariners out of Duke, who has performed strictly out of the bullpen during his professional career.
After a strong showing in A+ ball with a 12.7 K/9 and a 6:1 K/BB ratio, Beielenson earned the promotion to Arkansas where he has continued to see success. Lookout Landing provided this backdrop on Beielenson following his selection by the Mariners in 2024:
Putting up monster strikeout numbers and rarely walking batters, Beilenson was a finalist for the Stopper of the Year in 2024, an award that he fell just short to Texas A&M star Evan Aschenbeck. The six-foot-tall Beilenson doesn’t feature huge stuff, but a fastball that can reach the mid-90s as a part of a four pitch mix provides Beilenson plenty of tools to put hitters away. The changeup shows serious fade, his slider has flashed well, and his cutter provides an excellent change of pace from his fastball. In a post-Draft Day Two Zoom call, Mariners Director of Scouting Scott Hunter called Beilenson’s changeup “double-plus.” Despite standing just six feet, Beilenson is a durable, strong-bodied reliever; he was a workhorse for Duke this season and in 2023, when he broke the school record for appearances with 39.
Beielenson is already 25, and would be Rule 5 eligible following the 2026 season.
How The Roster Comes Together
A few notes to wrap this up:
Yes, Dylan Moore is still on the roster, and honestly I’m not even sure this is what I would do personally - however I do believe that given his tenure, his positional flexibility and his value on the base paths, that he will remain on the team through the end of 2025 unless the organization can find a taker that would offer him more playing time.
Miles Mastrobuoni keeps his spot over Ben Williamson on the roster, specifically due to Mastrobuoni’s positional flexibility. Williamson really doesn’t bring anything of value to the team if his only calling card is defense at 3B, especially if you plan on brining back Geno.
To be clear, I hate the process of either needing:
Luke Raley, every day RF
Dylan Moore, short side platoon RF
But unfortunately I don’t really have a choice here. I would like to think the org would consider adding a RHH option for the outfield, but they may just be in a position where they’ll need to just give those 10-12 starts against LHP to Dylan Moore, with a quick hook for pinch hitting with Raley the moment a RHP touches the mound.
I considered adding another trade to address the RHH issue in RF, however I am operating under the idea that Victor Robles will be ready to go by September.
The Mariners have an opportunity to have an October to remember, but the front office will need to be aggressive as the deadline approaches. For me, that starts and ends with adding two full time bats, and two new arms for the bullpen.
There might not be the players with control offensively like there was in 2024, and rentals might make the front office queasy; but in a year where the AL is more wide open than ever, this front office will need to wade into the uncomfortable to give this team, and the city, the Fall it deserves.
First article of yours I've read. It's incredibly well thought out. Look forward to checking out more!
(Also I would ecstatic with that Royals/Mariners trade even if losing Erceg would be a bummer)
This was so well done. I want to give you shit but honestly you’ve outdone yourself