Mariners Quit Horsing Around, Invest in Colt
The Stallion of the Farm Joins the Extension Stable
Jerry Dipoto, as he often does, perked a lot of ears a few weeks ago when he appeared on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM and spoke on the idea of the Mariners extending any number of their younger players as seen in the quote below:
I would say that I'm hopeful, but I'd say it's also unlikely. We're working on a number of things, and the likelihood of us doing something long-term with one or more of our players in the foreseeable future is pretty high. The likelihood of it being between now and Opening Day is a little bit tougher of a task to fill - Jerry Dipoto
Despite the convoluted word salad above, we now know who one of those players was, and that foreseeable future Dipoto alluded to, just so happened to be today.
Now there is a lot to unpack here - so I’m going to try and go through it as cleanly as possible.
The Financial Impact - Internally and Externally
The Mariners just gave out the largest guaranteed contract for any player who has yet to make his debut by completing this extension. On paper, this is very aggressive for a player who is considered a very good prospect, but would not be mistaken for being on the same prospect scale as, let’s say, Konnor Griffin or Jesús Made and to a lesser extent, Kevin McGonigle or future division rival Leo De Vries. In fact, Fangraphs has Emerson just outside of their top 10 at a 55 Future Value grade - a half grade, to grade and a half behind the above mentioned quartet.
This is not to say that paying this sum to Emerson right now is an overpay, but it certainly is a gamble, and likely puts the Brewers, Tigers, Pirates and Athletics in a much more uncomfortable situation surrounding their blue chip shortstop prospects, especially given some of the above organizations’… ahem… financial decision making.
For the Mariners, paying this sum doesn’t need to be a deterrent if things go poorly. At $11.875m AAV, Emerson’s number is by no means preventative for future deal making, that is, as long as the Mariners continue to operate as they have recently - and more importantly, if Emerson does reach his escalators to get him to the $130m threshold Murray refers to in his tweet, the contract quickly becomes a bargain.
Comparisons
Now, given the extension is the largest for a player without a debut, there really isn’t a specific scenario we can compare Colt to, however, there is a current Mariner who signed a similar deal at a different stage in his career that can allow us to draw some parallels.
In 2022, the Mariners signed 27 year old JP Crawford to a 5 year, $51m extension, which runs up at the end of this season. That contract’s AAV ($10.2m) falls just shy of the Emerson number ($11.875m), but does at least allow fans to try and set reasonable expectations for what Colt can do to make the Mariners investment worth it.
In his time with the Mariners following the extension, Crawford has amassed 11.6 fWAR, with a .247/.347/.370 split and a 113 WRC+. Crawford’s defense has diminished substantially over that timeframe, but this can be somewhat expected as the contract ran his 27-31 year old seasons.
Colt Emerson’s extension runs out at his age 28 season (29 if the Mariners pick up the team option), which means the Mariners will be getting Emerson for the peak of his athletic prime. Defensively, Emerson has shined recently, and questions about him sticking at short have all but disappeared as his debut has approached.
To frame this, if you believe J.P Crawford has been worth his contract for the Mariners over the past four seasons, then the parallel would be to hope that Colt Emerson can produce at a similar level. Defensively, Colt is already the superior to Crawford by a sizable gap, which leaves you asking for Colt to be roughly 10-15% above league average with the bat to make the contract well worth it.
To tie a bow on this, as well as the section above, it is good to remember that the Crawford contract did not prohibit the Mariners from extending, signing or acquiring players like Julio Rodriguez, Luis Castillo, Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena and Josh Naylor - so Colt’s extension should be viewed similarly through a payroll perspective.
Timing
Most would assume that this financial commitment to Colt Emerson would likely indicate that his debut would be imminent, especially now that the Mariners have forfeited their ability to gain an extra first round pick in the event Colt wins Rookie of the Year - but that appears to not be the case:
Now, the Mariners could be saying this but meaning otherwise, but given the current landscape of the roster as is - it does feel like there is real merit to this.
When J.P Crawford returns to the lineup for the Mariners, and does so at shortstop as the Mariners have continued to state, the opportunities for everyday playing time could be few and far between for Emerson. With Crawford’s return, the likely lineup would include Brendan Donovan at 3B, Crawford at SS and Cole Young at 2B against RHP - three players who at this point should and will play every day.
You could argue that Donovan could see more time in RF allowing Emerson to slide into 3B where he spent a healthy amount of time this spring, however, both Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone have shown early that both belong in the lineup regularly against RHP as well. By playing both, this also eliminates the idea of putting Randy Arozarena at DH to allow for Donovan to shift to LF, once again allowing Emerson into 3B.
You got all of that? Good.
This also doesn’t include Leo Rivas, who offers positional flexibility, switch hitting, and an above average approach at the plate, or future IL returnee Miles Mastrobuoni who will need to be on the 26 man roster, or be subject to waivers. Realistically, there is a lot of traffic both on the roster, and on the injury list, which makes Emerson a bit of a tricky fit at the current moment.
That said, baseball does have a way of working it’s way out eventually, and there are a lot of ways you could organize the roster to fit Colt Emerson. One of the biggest issues for the Mariners towards the end of last year was the clear burnout from players like JP, Julio, Randy and Cal, all of whom played over 157 games before reaching the postseason. Add in that Brendan Donovan does have a history of missing games, and you can start to see an avenue where elevating Colt to the main roster does make sense.
If the Mariners want their roster to be as fresh as can be going into October, they will need to start getting more days off for their regulars - and the best way to do that, is by having a bench with players you feel comfortable starting multiple times a week. A bench of Emerson, Raley/Robles/ Canzone/Refsnyder and Garver gives you that.
Realistically, Colt Emerson will likely let the Mariners know when he is ready. Colt had a good spring, but certainly was not at the same level of 2022 Julio Rodriguez who all but forced the Mariners to put him on the Opening Day roster. Colt has less than 10 games played at AAA, and won’t be 21 until July - more time in AAA is not the worst thing for Emerson, and again, there’s always the injury scenario at some point which will make room for Emerson regardless.
Final Thoughts
Overall, today is a very exciting day for the Mariners, Colt Emerson and should be for the fan base as well. There is likely some sticker shock for folks, especially given the record setting number Colt received, but it is crystal clear the confidence the organization has in Emerson, which was made even more evident with the announcement that Emerson’s contract came with a no-trade clause as well.
For me, this is another sign that the Mariners organization is willing to invest in the people they feel are the right fit for the long term, and the contract itself in no way should prohibit them from having these same discussions, and hopefully results, with players like Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Brendan Donovan etc.
Colt is here to stay. All Hail Colt.
Go M’s.