Hope Is Not a Strategy
As days dwindle in the off-season, it appears that the Mariners strategy of 'waiting' might not have been a good one.
Let me preface this piece by acknowledging that there are still 46 days until Pitchers and Catchers before the Mariners report to Peoria - there is in fact, time, for Jerry and Justin to make the moves they need.
However, as we continue to watch the days of the off-season dwindle without any additions to a major league roster that is still missing “two” infielders - it is becoming increasingly clear that the front office responsible for adding said infielders has arrived at the part of the off-season where Hope has replaced whatever initial plans they had coming into the off-season.
Let’s do a quick recap of the players who the Mariners have been tied to (at least publicly) - players we can only assume the front office believed they would have the pieces or ability to acquire.
Alec Bohm
A popular target for a large portion of the online community (as well as the Mariners front office) was met with a request of George Kirby or Logan Gilbert as the paying price. Rightfully so, Jerry and Justin balked - thus leaving them in a position where they need to hope the price on Bohm comes down.
Carlos Santana/Justin Turner
Another popular set of targets for both the online community and the front office - a front office who was seemingly dead set on adding veteran leadership. The Mariners did offer the most money, and years, but were undone by a Guardians organization who utilized Josh Naylor’s value in a trade with Arizona, and immediately backfilled with an organizational favorite in Santana. This, of course, is not something the Mariners should be blamed for given the emotional piece for Santana - but it is clear that the organization very much viewed Santana as the proverbial ‘Plan A’, and as of today, have clearly defaulted to the idea of Luke Raley. Of course, Justin Turner is still available, but his price tag is assumed to be higher given his salary and production from 2024 - leaving the Mariners in a position to hope the price on Turner comes down.
Hye-seong Kim
Viewed as a bit more of a wild card given the difficult transition from the KBO to MLB, Hye-seong still would have fit as a versatile defender with 70 grade base running abilities. By no means was Kim a perfect fit for a roster that desperately needs offense - but his athleticism and positional flexibility would have been welcome on a roster that lacks it outside of Dylan Moore. The Mariners were clearly interested, as they were one of the five reported teams of offer, but were ultimately discarded in favor of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Missing out on Kim is by no means an off-season destroyer, but for a continuously shrinking market, it was a blow to the remaining viable targets. More reports came out today about the interest in Dodgers 2B Gavin Lux, but this would also have to come at the expense of the report from the Dodgers about their intent to keep Lux for 2025. Again, this leaves the Mariners in a position to hope the availability of Gavin Lux changes.
Now, this is just a review of the targets they have been tied to in the local and national media. This, however, does not include free agent Rōki Sasaki - a free agent who they have not been tied to directly by either the local or national media since the report that the organization has “preparing for years” on it’s pitch. Now, maybe this is an organization that has learned from their mistakes with the Ohtani Sweepstakes of 2017, and are just choosing to stay very tight lipped to the situation - but it is also difficult to expect a fanbase to believe in that idea, especially when the national media continues to omit any meetings or discussion with the Mariners and Sasaki. This, of course, does not mean they have not met with Sasaki, but in order to believe that, you are asking the Mariners fanbase to hope that the organization has learned from prior discretions.
Finally, there is Luis Castillo.
For months now, the Mariners have been rumored to be shopping Castillo, seemingly in a ‘kill three birds with one stone’ mentality. In their eyes, a trade of Castillo, especially in a market where less consistent pitchers such as Sean Manaea are getting the same type of terms, would be able to return them a major league bat, a replacement pitcher for Castillo and hypothetical financial freedom to more aggressively address their remaining offensive holes - or at least they hoped.
Instead, the Mariners front office has reportedly been frustrated with the offers they have been receiving for Castillo. There was, of course, the report that the Mariners turned down an offer of Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida, specifically due to the salary owed to Yoshida, but to this point, there has been no reporting on any other additional offers they have received. This, to sound like a broken record, leaves the Mariners in a position where they will need to hope that the offers will improve for Castillo in order to move the roster forward.
All of this, brings us to the point of this post.
For the past four off-seasons, the Mariners ownership group sold fans on hope - on the hope that ownership (and by proxy, the front office) would spend when the time was right. To their credit, they started off strong with the acquisition of Robbie Ray in 2021 - but ahem ‘unforeseen circumstances’ with broadcast rights led to the organization ‘reallocating’ Robbie’s contract in the form of a pair of Mitches and a Polo - all of whom, are either gone, or restricting current spending abilities. To this point, the Robbie Ray signing is essentially the only true “spending” the organization has done, unless you believe in the idea that 2/24m on Mitch Garver is spending.
But after three and a half off-seasons of excuses and backpedaling, the fans of the organization have publicly announced that the majority of them have learned a lesson that the front office, after nearly a decade, has still yet to realize.
Whether it’s the fans hope in the organization to get it right.
Or whether it’s ownership’s hope the the media issues will resolve themselves.
Or whether it’s the front office’s hope that the market will make itself a little more clear.