When looking for the bright spots in what has so far been an up and down start to the 2026 season for the Seattle Mariners, the continued growth and development of Cole Young stands out as one of the brightest.

As I discussed on my initial podcast back in February, Cole Young’s physical appearance was one of the things that stood out to me the most during my time in Peoria. Ryan Rowland-Smith recently discussed the same, while also echoing the sentiment that Young came into the season in much better shape than he was in 2025:

He’s in way better shape than last year. People don’t talk about that,” Rowland-Smith said. “… Everything he did in the winter was based around, I need to be overmatched. When I set up a (pitching) machine, I’m going to set it up belt high, as fast as this machine can go. I’m going to use these softballs that Driveline makes… and they rise on you. And that was his whole emphasis.

Young’s approach during the off-season, as well as the rumored adjustments to his diet, have already shown dividends through the first 31 games of the season. Young currently ranks in the top 10 in both WRC+ and fWAR amongst second basemen, and has also seen significant growth defensively, specifically on balls he’s needed to charge, as well as his lateral movement towards the second base bag:

Overall, Young has seen significant, and in some instances comical (shoutout bWAR) growth since 2025:

Now to be clear, I am not of the mindset that Cole Young is a nine win player (that distinction belongs to Brendan Donovan IYKYK) - but a still 22 year old second baseman pacing towards a four win season is certainly someone the Seattle Mariners would likely look at as an extension candidate - but what would that extension look like?

Player Comparisons

To start, I filtered by players since 2000 who have had at least 350 PAs in their age 21-22 year old seasons as our initial list. From that list, there are the expected suspects leading the way in terms of production (Gleyber Torres, B.J Upton, Ozzie Albies, Robinson Canó), but there were also players like Brandon Phillips and José Ramirez who struggled mightily in their debuts who were pulled into the filter. In total, there were 26 players who fit this criteria, with the below being the best comparisons:

At first glance, this is certainly a list of players who you know/remember! Hilariously enough, there are four current or past Mariners on this list, with the best of the bunch being a part of one of the worst trades in Mariners history.

From this group, Nick Franklin was the only player who really busted, finishing with a career .214/.285/.359 line before his major league career ended in 2018. Franklin peaked as the 52nd overall prospect on MLB Pipeline the year prior to his debut, and had a good debut season at the age of 22, but was never able to build on the power/defense profile he displayed as a rookie.

Colt Keith was the only player who signed a pre-arb extension from the group, a 6 year, $28.64m contract with three club options - $10m, $13m, $15m - each of which come with buyouts ranging from $1m to $2.64m.

At the time of his extension, Keith had yet to debut for Detroit, and had posted a .300/.382/.512 line over 1,063 PAs in the minors. In comparison, Cole Young had posted a .279/.388/.432 line over 1,473 PAs prior to his debut.

Luis Rengifio never signed an extension, but through arbitration and his free agent deal he signed this off-season, Rengifio has made roughly $25.8m through the age of 29.

Jackson Holliday is easily the most high profile name of the group, and was the top overall prospect in baseball on MLB Pipeline in 2024. Holliday showed significant growth from 2024 to 2025, and was poised for a breakout season in 2026, but a fractured hamate in spring training has slowed his debut for this season.

Financially, and in terms of overall success, Asdrúbal Cabrera had the best overall result of the group (so far). Cabrera amassed 28.3 fWAR while finishing with a .266/.329/.423 line over 7,401 PAs spanning a 15 year career. Cabrera’s career finished at the age of 35, and by the time he had retired, he had earned over $64m, mostly coming in one and two year deals after his time in Cleveland came to an end.

Contract Comps

Kristian Campbell

Contract: 8 years, $60m - Club Options in 2033 ($19m) and 2034 ($21m)

MLB Stats Time of Signing: 24 PAs, .400/.500/.750

Colt Keith

Contract: 6 years, $28.6m - Club Options in 2030 ($10m), 2031 ($13m) and 2032 ($15m)

MLB Stats Time of Signing: None

Ozzie Albies

Contract: 7 years, $35m - Club Options in 2026 ($7m) and 2027 ($7m)

MLB Stats Time of Signing: 982 PAs, .271/.321/.453, 103 WRC+, 6.8 fWAR

Rougned Odor

Contract: 6 years, $49.5m

MLB Stats Time of Signing: 1,519 PAs, .265/.302/.464, 101 WRC+, 6.4 fWAR

Jedd Gyorko

Contract: 5 years, $35m - Club Option in 2020 ($13m)

MLB Stats Time of Signing: 577 PAs, .241/.295/.430, 104 WRC+, 2.4 fWAR

Kolten Wong

Contract: 5 years, $25.5m - Club Option in 2021 ($12.5m)

MLB Stats Time of Signing: 1,108 PAs, .250/.303/.374, 88 WRC+, 4.0 fWAR

Scott Kingery

Contract: 6 years, $24m - Club Options for 2024 ($13m), 2025 ($14m) and 2026 ($15m)

MLB Stats Time of Signing: None

Average Guaranteed Contract: 6 year, $36.8m

Though I didn’t list him above, I do think it’s also important to reference Colt Emerson as well. The Mariners signed Colt to an 8 year, $95m contract earlier this season, which at the time, made him the highest paid player in Major League history who had yet to make his debut.

Colt is a clear cut above Cole in terms of prospect pedigree, as well as projected future value from most prospect rank sheets, but I do think it’s valuable to look at his contract through the arbitration years as a good barometer for where the Mariners could hypothetically land in discussions with Cole:

Colt’s total money earned through his pre-arb and arbitration years lands at 6 years, $59m, with the remaining money coming in the form of two additional guaranteed years at $18m AAV, with a club option in 2034 at $25m. I do not think that the money the Mariners are paying to Colt through pre-arbitration is a number they would look to offer Cole, primarily due Colt’s age, premium position and his better overall projection moving forward - but I could see the Mariners looking to offer something that lands around the average of the contracts above, and what they are paying Colt.

Extension Offer

Now, I can understand that the upcoming CBA negotiations, as well as the potential impact it could have on player control, could influence both the Mariners and Cole’s willingness to do a deal - but the point of this exercise was gathering enough comparisons, both statistically and contractually, to give a healthy projection of where I would land if I were in the front office’s shoes:

Contract Offer - 5 years, $31m with multiple club options

2026: $3m

2027: $4m

2028: $6m

2029: $8m

2030: $10m

Club Options: 2031 ($12m), 2032 ($13m), 2033 ($14m) - $2m buyouts on each year.

Total Potential Contract: 8 years, $70m

This contract essentially comes in as a beefier version of the Colt Keith deal, which gives both the Mariners, and Cole Young stability over the next five to eight seasons.

For Cole, $31m is very likely more than he will make through his pre-arbitration and arbitration process - but comes at the expense that he’s essentially working on rolling one year deals for the Mariners starting in his age 27 season.

Could Young get paid more than the 3/39m he could receive in club options once he hits the open market? Maybe - but in order to do that, Young would likely have to tap in to the power side of his game a little bit more, and turn more into an Asdrúbal Cabrera type offensive profile, while also maintaining a well above average defensive profile. Then again, there’s also the scenario that Cole Young does hit his 100th percentile outcome and still becomes a free agent at the age of 30 after already making $70m for his career, which in itself, is not a bad consolation prize.

For the Mariners, the benefits lie in locking up every position on the dirt with the exception of third base through at least 2030.

Even in the scenario where Young’s growth stunts, or objectively fails, the Mariners are looking at a slightly more expensive commitment than what tthey gave Evan White in 2019 - a contract they were able to trade, and would have no detrimental impact to your overall payroll.

Again - the uncertainty of the CBA and the future of the arbitration process certainly makes this a tricky conversation for both parties, but if Cole’s development continues through the 2026 season, I’m sure at least one of the parties will be open to having the discussions.

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You can now listen to this on both Spotify and on Apple Podcasts, and can now watch some of my episodes on the Words from the Wharf YouTube page.

Enjoy!

You can now listen to this on both Spotify and on Apple Podcasts, and can now watch some of my episodes on the Words from the Wharf YouTube page.

Enjoy!

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We also talk about the Astros series, and whether or not the Mariners offense is truly back, or if it’s time for an obituary for Houston.

You can now listen to this on both Spotify and on Apple Podcasts, and can now watch some of my episodes on the Words from the Wharf YouTube page.

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We also talk about the early results the Mariners have had with the ABS System, and where they rank across the rest of baseball.

You can now listen to this on both Spotify and on Apple Podcasts, and can now officially watch this on the Words from the Wharf YouTube page.

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• Colt Emerson’s Extension

• Logan Gilbert’s Long Term Outlook

• How the Mariners Look So Far

• And more!

You can now listen to this on both Spotify and on Apple Podcasts, and can now officially watch this on the Words from the Wharf YouTube page.

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Jerry Dipoto, as he often does, perked a lot of ears a few weeks ago when he appeared on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM and spoke on the idea of the Mariners extending any number of their younger players as seen in the quote below:

Despite the convoluted word salad above, we now know who one of those players was, and that foreseeable future Dipoto alluded to, just so happened to be today.

Now there is a lot to unpack here - so I’m going to try and go through it as cleanly as possible.

The Financial Impact - Internally and Externally

The Mariners just gave out the largest guaranteed contract for any player who has yet to make his debut by completing this extension. On paper, this is very aggressive for a player who is considered a very good prospect, but would not be mistaken for being on the same prospect scale as, let’s say, Konnor Griffin or Jesús Made and to a lesser extent, Kevin McGonigle or future division rival Leo De Vries. In fact, Fangraphs has Emerson just outside of their top 10 at a 55 Future Value grade - a half grade, to grade and a half behind the above mentioned quartet.

This is not to say that paying this sum to Emerson right now is an overpay, but it certainly is a gamble, and likely puts the Brewers, Tigers, Pirates and Athletics in a much more uncomfortable situation surrounding their blue chip shortstop prospects, especially given some of the above organizations’… ahem… financial decision making.

For the Mariners, paying this sum doesn’t need to be a deterrent if things go poorly. At $11.875m AAV, Emerson’s number is by no means preventative for future deal making, that is, as long as the Mariners continue to operate as they have recently - and more importantly, if Emerson does reach his escalators to get him to the $130m threshold Murray refers to in his tweet, the contract quickly becomes a bargain.

Comparisons

Now, given the extension is the largest for a player without a debut, there really isn’t a specific scenario we can compare Colt to, however, there is a current Mariner who signed a similar deal at a different stage in his career that can allow us to draw some parallels.

In 2022, the Mariners signed 27 year old JP Crawford to a 5 year, $51m extension, which runs up at the end of this season. That contract’s AAV ($10.2m) falls just shy of the Emerson number ($11.875m), but does at least allow fans to try and set reasonable expectations for what Colt can do to make the Mariners investment worth it.

In his time with the Mariners following the extension, Crawford has amassed 11.6 fWAR, with a .247/.347/.370 split and a 113 WRC+. Crawford’s defense has diminished substantially over that timeframe, but this can be somewhat expected as the contract ran his 27-31 year old seasons.

Colt Emerson’s extension runs out at his age 28 season (29 if the Mariners pick up the team option), which means the Mariners will be getting Emerson for the peak of his athletic prime. Defensively, Emerson has shined recently, and questions about him sticking at short have all but disappeared as his debut has approached.

To frame this, if you believe J.P Crawford has been worth his contract for the Mariners over the past four seasons, then the parallel would be to hope that Colt Emerson can produce at a similar level. Defensively, Colt is already the superior to Crawford by a sizable gap, which leaves you asking for Colt to be roughly 10-15% above league average with the bat to make the contract well worth it.

To tie a bow on this, as well as the section above, it is good to remember that the Crawford contract did not prohibit the Mariners from extending, signing or acquiring players like Julio Rodriguez, Luis Castillo, Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena and Josh Naylor - so Colt’s extension should be viewed similarly through a payroll perspective.

Timing

Most would assume that this financial commitment to Colt Emerson would likely indicate that his debut would be imminent, especially now that the Mariners have forfeited their ability to gain an extra first round pick in the event Colt wins Rookie of the Year - but that appears to not be the case:

Now, the Mariners could be saying this but meaning otherwise, but given the current landscape of the roster as is - it does feel like there is real merit to this.

When J.P Crawford returns to the lineup for the Mariners, and does so at shortstop as the Mariners have continued to state, the opportunities for everyday playing time could be few and far between for Emerson. With Crawford’s return, the likely lineup would include Brendan Donovan at 3B, Crawford at SS and Cole Young at 2B against RHP - three players who at this point should and will play every day.

You could argue that Donovan could see more time in RF allowing Emerson to slide into 3B where he spent a healthy amount of time this spring, however, both Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone have shown early that both belong in the lineup regularly against RHP as well. By playing both, this also eliminates the idea of putting Randy Arozarena at DH to allow for Donovan to shift to LF, once again allowing Emerson into 3B.

You got all of that? Good.

This also doesn’t include Leo Rivas, who offers positional flexibility, switch hitting, and an above average approach at the plate, or future IL returnee Miles Mastrobuoni who will need to be on the 26 man roster, or be subject to waivers. Realistically, there is a lot of traffic both on the roster, and on the injury list, which makes Emerson a bit of a tricky fit at the current moment.

That said, baseball does have a way of working it’s way out eventually, and there are a lot of ways you could organize the roster to fit Colt Emerson. One of the biggest issues for the Mariners towards the end of last year was the clear burnout from players like JP, Julio, Randy and Cal, all of whom played over 157 games before reaching the postseason. Add in that Brendan Donovan does have a history of missing games, and you can start to see an avenue where elevating Colt to the main roster does make sense.

If the Mariners want their roster to be as fresh as can be going into October, they will need to start getting more days off for their regulars - and the best way to do that, is by having a bench with players you feel comfortable starting multiple times a week. A bench of Emerson, Raley/Robles/ Canzone/Refsnyder and Garver gives you that.

Realistically, Colt Emerson will likely let the Mariners know when he is ready. Colt had a good spring, but certainly was not at the same level of 2022 Julio Rodriguez who all but forced the Mariners to put him on the Opening Day roster. Colt has less than 10 games played at AAA, and won’t be 21 until July - more time in AAA is not the worst thing for Emerson, and again, there’s always the injury scenario at some point which will make room for Emerson regardless.

Final Thoughts

Overall, today is a very exciting day for the Mariners, Colt Emerson and should be for the fan base as well. There is likely some sticker shock for folks, especially given the record setting number Colt received, but it is crystal clear the confidence the organization has in Emerson, which was made even more evident with the announcement that Emerson’s contract came with a no-trade clause as well.

For me, this is another sign that the Mariners organization is willing to invest in the people they feel are the right fit for the long term, and the contract itself in no way should prohibit them from having these same discussions, and hopefully results, with players like Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Brendan Donovan etc.

Colt is here to stay. All Hail Colt.

Go M’s.

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In the past four days, we, the collective Mariners fanbase, have already experienced the time honored traditions of:

• Questioning bullpen decisions

• Leaving runners in scoring position

• Lineup Construction

• Online pissing matches

That’s right, Mariners baseball is back, baby. The four months of cold, dark Marinerless days have quickly been replaced by the roaring fires of frustration, memes and questioning why I choose to subject myself to this 162 times a year - and despite having a now average bedtime of 1:30am EST, I truly could not be happier.

This season, I will plan on doing quick weekly recaps on Mondays, where I will review the best and worst from the previous week. I will also provide a glimpse of what’s coming up, both for the Mariners, and myself in the week ahead.

Let’s get to it.

Hitter of the Week: Brendan Donovan

18 PAs, 2 HR, 4 R, 4 RBI, 4 SB — .429/.556/.929 — 304 WRC+

To be honest, this could have easily gone to either Dominic Canzone (1.000 SLG) or Luke Raley (tres dingerinos) as well - but given this was Donovan’s debut in a Mariners uniform, we decided to go with the nine win player himself.

Donovan made about as impactful of a debut as possible, homering on the fifth pitch he saw, becoming the first ever Mariner to lead-off a season with a home run in the organization’s 50 year history.

Perhaps equally as important, Donovan provided positive results against left handed pitching, going 2-4 with a pair of singles over the weekend. The Mariners likely tipped their hand early with how they will use Brendan Donovan against LHP, as Donovan was batting sixth on Saturday against left handed starter Joey Cantillo.

Donovan is coming off a 2025 season in which he posted a .614 OPS (75 WRC+) against left handed pitching in 169 PAs, but despite this, Donovan still posted a .775 OPS (119 WRC+) overall. Any type of improvement from Donovan against LHP would be a welcome addition, especially if it means Donovan’s plate approach can stay at the top of the Mariners line-up permanently.

Pitcher of the Week: Emerson Hancock (!?!?)

6 IP, 9 Ks, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 0 H

Talk about a complete 180 result for Emerson Hancock compared to his last season debut.

In last season’s debut, Hancock never made it out of the first inning, allowing 7 hits and 6 runs while recording zero strikeouts to a relatively unimpressive Detroit Tigers offense.

In this season’s debut? Hancock never let Cleveland get out of first gear, throwing six shutout innings with 9 strikeouts, while featuring an absolutely devastating sweeper that led to more than one audible gasp from the NBC Broadcast booth, which you can hear starting at the 1:10 mark:

There is really no other way to put it, Emerson Hancock was untouchable last night, as evident by his 12.5% HardHit rate and most noticeably, his 42.9% whiff rate against his sweeper.

Though Hancock will still likely be replaced by Bryce Miller upon his return from the IL, Hancock will almost certainly see his stuff play up as a multi-inning reliever when that day comes. Thought Hancock was dominant for the six innings he pitched, he noticeably saw dips in his sitting velocity after the first two innings, but still had enough in the tank to touch 94-95 when he needed to as his start went along.

Last night showed a lot of Mariners fans what the organization had reportedly been seeing through camp from Hancock, and likely has calmed the minds of some for Hancock to cover starts through the year as need be.

If the sweeper continues to be the swing and miss pitch it was on Sunday night, Hancock has the makings of a serviceable backend starter, or potentially that of a very effective multi-inning leverage reliever.

C.H.O.N.E of the Week: Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh and Josh Naylor

Combined: 54 PAs, 3 Hs, 1 XBH, 2 R, 2 RBI, 19 K, 9 BB

Listen, normally we will only identify one hitter a week when discussing C.H.O.N.E (Can’t Hit Or Nurture Effectively), but given the collective long wet fart that Julio, Cal and Naylor produced through the four game series, exceptions were made.

Simply put, the Mariners 2-3-4 hitters, were, well…

Thanks for that, Mr. Ralphio.

The fact that the Mariners went 2-2 against Cleveland despite the middle of the order doing just about everything they could from preventing it is truly a testament to how deep the lineup has the potential of being if/when it all clicks at once.

Now, this is baseball, and the lineup as a whole very likely will not all click at once for more than a handful of series throughout the year, but past iterations of the Seattle Mariners would’ve been looking 0-4 in the face if they had gotten that type of result from the heart of the order.

If we’re looking for silver linings, it’s that the middle of the order might not have another series all year where they collectively look THIS bad - but if we are looking at the normal, dark, ‘same ole Mariners’ side of things, I suppose we could be concerned that Cal struck out at a 55% clip over the weekend, with his only extra base hit coming from a 246 ft ground rule double.

Noodle of the Week: Eduard Bazardo

1.2 IP, 9 batters faced, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 ER, 1 H

Admittedly, we’re running with Noodle of the Week as the name for the least effective pitching performance of the week because, well, I can’t think of anything else. If you can think of an acronym you’d like to see here, please respond in the comments!

For the most part, the Mariners pitching held it together pretty well over the weekend (though how they may have been deployed is a different topic). An argument can be made for Andrés Muñoz, given the results of the 10th inning on Saturday, but given Brendan Donovan’s throw to first, and Chase DeLauter’s absurdity, I didn’t feel great putting much of that on Muñoz himself.

Eduard Bazardo on the other hand, walked three of the nine batters he faced, and generally did not look sharp in his two appearances. There are plenty of arguments to be made against how long Bazardo was left in on Saturday, and whether or not he should have been pulled for the batter he faced, but the results are unfortunately the results.

The starting rotation put the Mariners in position to win each game this weekend, and though not all of the blame can be placed on the bullpen (looking at you RISP), they were still a meaningful part of the problem. The bullpen will need to perform much better throughout this year if the Mariners plan to go where they are looking to.

What’s Ahead - Schedule and Probables

March 30th - April 1st - vs. Yankees

Monday: Luis Castillo vs. Ryan Weathers

Tuesday: Logan Gilbert vs. Max Fried

Wednesday: George Kirby vs. Cam Schlittler

Notes: Ryan Weathers was one of the bigger acquisitions for the Yankees this off-season, and features some of the best pure velocity the Mariners might see all season. The stuff is there to be great, but he has yet to fully put it together over a full season.

This is not the best matchup for the Mariners in general, given Aaron Judge’s history of rampaging, as well as the back to back lefty starter to open the series, but it’s a good test to see how the Mariners stack up early against two starters (Fried and Schlittler) they would likely see in a potential postseason matchup.

April 3rd - April 5th - at Angels

Friday: Woo vs. Detmers

Saturday: Hancock vs. Kochanowicz

Sunday: Castillo vs. Johnson

Notes: It’s the Angels. This series is going to suck, Mike Trout is going to be a pain in the ass, and some how Jo Adell will hit multiple dingers. Just get the hell out of there healthy, and hopefully with a series win.

What’s Ahead - Wednesday’s Show

of Locked On Mariners and Control the Zone will swing by to talk about what he’s seen from the Mariners in the early parts of the season.

Go M’s.

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For the majority of the off-season, I couldn’t quite put my finger on why things felt different, and now as we have reached Opening Day, that feeling of different still lingers.

Normally, my experience of a Mariners off-season feels more like trying to assemble a 1,000 piece puzzle, constantly second guessing and tinkering, holding ideas and pieces off to the side while trying to figure out how the Mariners could make everything fit for the next year.

This normal often included more memes and mockery, more quotes to tear apart, more moments of foot meets mouth responded to with a mostly sardonic tone from the general fanbase. The off-season would traditionally fly by with the Mariners achieving only the bare minimum - a bare minimum that by the end of March leaves even the most optimistic prognosticators saying that this could be the year if four or five things break exactly the way they need to.

For the past two decades, the normal for Opening Day was more in line with Hope Springs Eternal. That regardless of past discretions and everything your eyes and head told you, your heart screamed that this was finally the year. You didn’t necessarily believe your heart’s bellows, but you certainly placed hope in them - and for seven months of 2025, a starved fanbase was finally rewarded for it.

Over the course of last season, that hope gradually developed into a belief that bigger things weren’t just possible, but probable. The free feeling of wishing for the best was over time replaced by the heavy feeling of previously unachievable goals now becoming reality; a feeling that would leave you breathless and white knuckled pitch after pitch, inning after inning, night over night, that can reward you with utter ecstasy when things go right, but will leave you broken in silence when things go wrong.

The deep water of the playoffs are not for the weak of heart. They are a labyrinth of emotion, a never-ending maze of anxiety and stress that can be almost impossible at times to enjoy in the moment, but will be sure to leave you with lasting memories (or scars) that will stay with you forever.

With these memories, October tends to leave another ‘gift’ that we carry with us through the cold winter months, which in this case, was responsible for this off-season feeling different, both in how I viewed it, and with what the Mariners accomplished.

The gift, was expectations, and with these expectations, comes a different view of Opening Day, a view where the collective fan base is no longer hoping for the best, but expecting it. These expectations are not only being bestowed upon the organization by their fans, but also by national pundits, writers and projectionists alike. They are damn near unanimously being labeled as the best team in the American League, and with those labels, comes a different perspective of watching the 162 game marathon of a season.

We as fans over the last two decades have often seen the Mariners as a living example of pathos, where the absurd and hilarious were not only matched, but often exceeded, by the inadequacy and pathetic in nature results of a franchise that might as well have built their stadium to be surrounded by a circle of lain down rakes. You entered each season with the hope for better, but expecting the comical worst - and for 20 years, the Mariners almost always emphatically delivered in spades.

Sure, the organization gave a peek of what life could be in the realm beyond competency in 2022, but that was all almost instantly forgotten over the next 12 months due to a mixture of good process, bad result, infamous press conferences, and some good ole fashioned bottom line baseball. The Same Ole Mariners were back like they never left, as to was the familiar feeling of hoping for the best, expecting the worst on Opening Day.

But 2026 isn’t your Same Ole Mariners - not after last year. Both fans and players alike are marching to the beat of a singular drum, the drum of expectation, one that can only be met if the organization goes somewhere it has never gone before. Anything short will likely be deemed a disappointment, or worse, and there is no going back.

It is fair, and expected, to have expectations - but in all of those expectations, we must remind ourselves to take time for the most important part of reaching the inevitable end - the journey.

We know where we want to go, and we know what it is going to take to get there, but focusing on the horizon at the expense of the here and now leaves you in a state of callous waiting, and ignores the present we should all choose to live in more.

Enjoy the Tuesday Nights in Oakland Sacramento.

Laugh at the TOOTBLANs.

Make memes out of screenshots.

Laugh, Yell, Mock, Cheer at the Mariners - they have, and always will, deserve the full spectrum of our human emotions.

But most importantly, don’t let your expectations come between you and the emotion the journey brings us; the highs, the lows and everything in between.

Live in the now.

There will be time for us to meet up with our expectations in October.

Go M’s.

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• Cole Young, Master of Dinger?

• Colt Emerson, Back to School?

• Randy and JP’s Walk Year

• Putting the 2026 Mariners in 2018

Don’t forget to follow and rate on both Apple and Spotify!

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The 2026 Mariners / MLB Prediction Survey is officially live!

Responses will be accepted until noon EST, 9am PST on Thursday, March 26th - one response per person.

We had over 300 responses last year between Twitter and Bluesky, so let’s do our best to clear that number in 2026.

Show your knowledge of the Mariners, and the rest of the baseball world, and prove once and for all that you, yes you, are the ultimate knower of ball.

Make sure to click the button below to get started!

Do You Know Ball?

Also, we do a deeper dive on Yosver Zulueta’s camp and how I think he has earned his way on to the roster for opening day, as well as what could potentially keep him in Tacoma if the Mariners decide to go another route.

Don’t forget to follow and rate on both Apple and Spotify!

Enjoy!

Also, we touch on the Randy Arozarena and Cal Raleigh spat, and whether or not their is a concern on this lingering into the season.

Note: I say that Cal announced himself as captain of Team USA, which is obviously not true. This was meant as Cal announcing himself as a member of Team USA.

Thank you again to all of you who voted on this week’s show topic!

Don’t forget to follow and rate on both Apple and Spotify!

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A quick warning, the first five minutes or so of the episode picked up every ounce of noise possible in the background, but the remainder of the recording should be fine.

Given this is my first recording with a guest, this was a bit of a learning experience on my end, so apologies in advance.

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• Best and Worst Case Scenarios for 2026

• Knizner or Garver

• Are there no gripes with the organization currently?

• 2027 IF and LF Predictions

• Ryan Bliss Trade Value

• Adding another leverage arm

• Last 3 Spots in the Bullpen

• Kade Anderson’s Rotation Debut

Enjoy!

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I had stated at the end of previous year that I would be starting a podcast, but frankly I wasn’t really sure where to start. I knew what I wanted it to be, but admittedly there was a level of fear and nervousness with recording on my own, and not just being a guest on another show.

Being a guest and answering a question is one thing, but driving the show, building the structure of the conversation, understanding the concept of empty space amongst other things, were all foreign concepts to me. These are not necessarily skillsets you can teach yourself over night (as experienced in the two different versions of this that will never see the light of day).

With that said, I’m proud to finally record my own podcast, one that I hope will find its way into your rotation moving forward as I continue to gain my sea legs in this process.

On today’s show - I dive into:

• What we saw from Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan

• The sheer comical size of Lazaro Montes

• Michael Arroyo’s surprise infield reps at third base

• Brendan Donovan, son of Gimli

• Cal Raleigh

• Vibes at Camp

Again - thank you so much for your support in both reading, and now listening to Words from the Wharf. Enjoy.

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Note: This is part 5 of a 5 part series reviewing the 2026 Seattle Mariners.

1. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 1: 2026 Mariners Roster As Is

2. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 2: Free Agent Fits per Position

3. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 3: Trade Targets per Position

4. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 4: The F.O Off-Season Plan

5. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 5: My Off-Season Plan

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Prologue

First off, I would like to thank all of you who have followed along for this off-season series. I am truly grateful for all of the new subscribers who have signed up over the last few weeks, and especially thankful for those who have shared this project with others.

Moving forward, my frequency of posting will likely slow down barring any impactful Mariners news, but I do want to take the time to recognize some of the other very talented folks who write on Substack that you should also considered subbing to:

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Nathan, Ben, Colin and Luke all offer very different writing and recording styles and perspectives, but all four of them are incredibly talented at what they do, and will certainly help any fan who is looking for Mariners coverage through the cold winter months. Please take the time to support their work - they all deserve it.

With that said, we have reached the end of the off-season series here at Words from the Wharf, and with that, I am proud to share with you my plan on how to build the 2026 Seattle Mariners.

Move 1: Sign Josh Naylor

Contract Details: 4 years, $88m - Opt out after 2nd Season, Club Option for 5th year at $20m with a $2m buyout

I will start by saying that I (amongst basically everyone in the Mariners fan base) have continued to bang the table for the Mariners to re-sign Josh Naylor.

There really isn’t much to discuss here in terms of how he performed, mostly because anyone with eyes could see the impact Naylor had on the Mariners club down the stretch, despite him clearly being hampered by a shoulder injury which caused him to miss a few games.

Naylor wasn’t just good for the Mariners down the stretch, he was the best he has ever been, which was initially why I excluded him from the off-season plan (more on that shortly). From a high level standpoint, here was how Naylor performed for two months in Seattle as compared to how he has performed in any full season in his career:

• WRC+: Career High

• SLG: Career High

• AVG: Second Highest

• BABIP: Second Highest

• FWAR/600: Double His Career High

• Stolen Bases: LOL, LMFAO EVEN

Now as to why I didn’t include him in the Front Office plan, I do have a few concerns with Naylor.

First, the competition for Naylor’s service may wind up being a big problem. At 28, Naylor is younger for your average free agent, and as stated above, is coming off the best two month stretch of his career. There are a handful of big market teams (New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers) who all have holes at 1B, and could push the financial commitment to a level the organization won’t feel comfortable committing to.

Secondly, and this might be the more important piece, is the expectations that Josh Naylor will ever be this good again. Naylor essentially performed as a 5.5 fWAR first baseman over the final two months of the season for Seattle, a pace he has never come close to sniffing through his career. Now, if Naylor can be a 2-3 fWAR player for the duration of the contract (as he has been for the last three seasons), you can live with a $22m AAV, especially considering the future money that will be coming off the books for the Mariners (J.P Crawford, Randy Arozarena). However, any sort of decline in performance by Naylor means tying a healthy portion of the organization’s typical budget to a slightly above average first baseman, and putting yourself in a position where future extensions or player acquisitions could be hindered by the contract you give out now. That said, it ain’t my money, and I do not worry myself with the financials of billionaires.

With all of that being said, the Mariners Front Office has been adamant that Naylor is their priority, and if there were a time for this regime to hand out a “bigger” contract than they ever have to an offensive player, it’s now. From a PR perspective, there isn’t a more slam dunk type signing for the organization than bringing Naylor back into the fold for the next 4-5 seasons. There is truly no player I have seen who has earned the unbridled love and support from this fan base this quickly, and his impact on the organization as a whole has been made quite evident based on comments from the players themselves, and the front office.

Move 2: Trade for CJ Abrams

Mariners Receive: SS CJ Abrams

Washington Nationals Receive: SHP Jurrangelo Cijntje, SS Felnin Celesten and OF Tai Peete

Though Abrams has played SS for the entirety of his career, I’m not so sure Abrams should continue to see that defensive position moving forward. Since 2022, CJ Abrams has ranked dead last (by a wide margin) in terms of Outs Above Average at the shortstop position (ironically, right in front of J.P Crawford).

Abrams’ biggest areas of concern in terms of fielding are on balls he has to charge, as well as balls hit to his left - which hypothetically could make him a difficult fit at third base, which would be the position I would hope the Mariners would try to transition him to if acquired. But at only 25 years of age, and with three years of arb control remaining, he is certainly a player the Mariners could look to take a chance on defensively, in the hopes that Perry Hill could help Abrams improve on the true weak point in his game.

Offensively, Abrams has averaged 19 home runs and 36 stolen bases over his last three full seasons, while also offering a slightly above average WRC+. Though his speed might lead you to think he could be a viable leadoff option, a spot in which he’s hit out of for more than 50% of his career, Abrams is not necessarily an on-base type, and has only carried a 5.3 BB% for his career. The Mariners would still likely slot Abrams into their leadoff spot in this scenario, primarily due to the lack of internal options.

From a compensation standpoint, the Mariners match up well for a Nationals club that is likely heading into a rather lengthy rebuild, and would be able to provide Washington with a few nice pieces that wouldn’t require the Nationals to start their service clock earlier than they would like.

Jurrangelo Cijntje’s calling card is that he is a switch handed pitcher offering a wrinkle that no other pitcher has been realistically capable of doing at the major league level. That said, his ability to be a switch pitcher has been exposed at the minor league level, but that doesn’t make him any lesser of a prospect in general.

Objectively, Cijntje is a high end RHP prospect who has the party trick of being able to throw with his left arm. As impressive as it is that he’s capable of doing both, his ability to consistently retire hitters from the south paw side at A+ and AA Ball just doesn’t offer much more than the occasional opportunity to deploy him from the bullpen if he develops more, or occasionally deploying him against LHH’s who struggle mightily against LHP.

Regardless of Cijntje’s ability to develop his LHP repertoire, he is still a universally agreed upon top 100 pitching arm who would likely be in AA or AAA for Washington at the beginning of 2026, with an outside possibility of breaking into their rotation, or joining their bullpen, by the end of the year, unless they wanted to delay his service clock for one more season.

Cijntje would slide in to the top 4 of the Nationals farm system, and would give the Nationals arguably the best rotation in the minor leagues between him, Travis Sykora and Jarlin Susana all potentially being in AA Harrisburg, or in AAA to start the 2026 season.

Felnin Celesten, who is arguably one of the best international prospects the Mariners have ever signed, has struggled to stay healthy during his time with the Mariners, which has led to him slipping out of a handful of top 100 prospect ranks.

Despite his injury history though, there are still prospect pundits (specifically Keith Law) who still view Celesten as a high end prospect with the defensive chops to stick at shortstop, with power that could develop as he continues to get older.

In terms of on-field performance, Celesten did struggle in his initial cup of coffee in A+ ball this year, but did so at the age of 19, which would have made him one of the youngest players in the league at the time. He spent the majority of his time in A ball this year, where he produced a 107 WRC+, with average walk and strikeout rates.

Admittedly, there is still more dreaming than proof of concept on Celesten at this point, and his value in any trade will likely need to come from an organization that chooses to see the potential more than his string of injuries that have limited him to 136 games in two stateside seasons. Given Washington’s lack of farm depth, and timeline to compete, I do think a player like Celesten is the type of prospect they would view as fit with the organization moving forward, pending their belief in his tools to take a step forward in 2026.

Tai Peete struggled offensively in 2025 with the jump to A+ ball, but there may not be another prospect in the Mariners system that has as much flash in his tools as Peete does.

Offensively, there is a continued concern with his plate discipline, as his last two seasons have ended with a strikeout rate north of 30%. Peete does show a great blend of power and speed, and finished only one home run shy of a 20/20 season in A+ ball this year, despite the strikeout issues.

Defensively, Peete transitioned from the infield dirt to centerfield this year, and did so with great success. Peete was a regular on the Mariners Minors Twitter account, and showed the speed and natural ability to stick in centerfield moving forward. In a Nationals system that is desperate for outfield help, and could likely see some of their current outfield options in the major leagues in other organizations by the time they are ready to compete, Peete would likely immediately rank as the best outfield prospect in their system, but would still be 2-3 years away from having any impact on the major league roster.

Move 3: Trade for Angel Zerpa

Mariners Receive: LHP Angel Zerpa

Kansas City Receives: 1B/OF Luke Raley, RHP Teddy McGraw and OF Victor Labrada

Tying back to my Trade Deadline Strategy article back in July, the Royals and the Mariners seem to be almost natural trade partners given the needs for both. The Mariners are in desperate need of another strikeout arm, particularly from the left side, while the Royals are in desperate need of additional production from their outfield, particularly now that Mike Yastrzemski has entered free agency.

Now, Zerpa hasn’t necessarily been a strikeout guy in his career, where he only has a 7.63 K/9, but what he does have is velocity, and a ground ball arsenal that led to him having a top five ground ball rate of all qualified relief pitchers in baseball last season.

Zerpa can be a little homer prone, however a transition to T-Mobile Park could help lower that for him, instead of the House of Horrors that is Kauffman Stadium in the summer time.

From a compensation standpoint, I viewed this similarly through the lense of the Gregory Santos trade from 2024, where the Mariners parted with a journeyman outfielder, a potential bullpen prospect with high octane stuff, and their Competitive Balance Round B pick that they had available to them. Given the Mariners do not currently have a pick to offer, I circled back to a trade proposal from the above mentioned trade deadline article where I proposed Dominic Canzone and Teddy McGraw for Lucas Erceg, but instead, subbed in Luke Raley as the outfielder of choice.

Raley had an injury filled 2025 which has left him in an interesting spot with the organization. Raley was given opportunities at first base, which could be valuable for the Mariners organization if they were left at the alter for any available options this off-season, but his performance there was… middling… to say the least. With the breakout from Dominic Canzone, Raley feels as if he might be best suited for a role with another organization. With three years of arbitration remaining, and two years of proven success in the majors, Raley acts as the pseudo-lead in this package for Kansas City, a team that finished dead last in major league baseball in terms of WRC+ from its outfield.

Teddy McGraw, in this case, acts as the value of the Comp B pick from the Santos trade. Currently ranked 14th in the Mariners prospect ranks, McGraw brings electric stuff, with three pitches (FB, SL, CU) that all have current 50 grades, with future value room to grow on each. Unfortunately, McGraw also brings a very long list of arm injuries, which inevitably lead to him falling to the 3rd Round of the 2023 Draft. At this point, McGraw is likely suited for a bullpen role. The Mariners did have him work as a starter this year, but he was limited to no more than 3 innings per outing. McGraw is Rule 5 eligible, though it would be a surprise to see a team take him to be on their 26 man roster for next season given he has not yet thrown a pitch above A+ ball.

Victor Labrada slides in as the DeLoach type in this deal, as a journeyman outfielder who has never really garnered much traction in prospect rankings, despite back to back productive years in the minor leagues. Already 25, Labrada is a small statured speedster type who saw a breakthrough in 2025 after making adjustments at Driveline during the off-season. Labrada posted career bests in average and OBP, while posting the second best WRC+ of his career. Labrada is Rule 5 eligible, and has been before - but his 2025 breakout might require whatever team employs his services to place him on their 40 man to avoid losing him in December.

Move 4: Mariners Sign Willi Castro

Contract: 1 year, $9m

In the final move, the Mariners look to continue to add flexibility to their roster by adding Willi Castro on a one year prove it deal, a deal he will likely now have to consider given his performance in Chicago following the trade deadline.

Castro was a very popular trade target this past July for Mariners fans, but was quickly forgotten about following the surprise plane ride by one Eugenio Suárez, and the middle of the night Passan bomb that sent the Mariners twitter-sphere into a tizzy.

Castro was on pace for this third straight season of posting at least a 106 WRC+ until his trade to the the north side of Chicago seemed to sap him of any BABIP magic he may have had in his time in Minnesota.

Prior to the trade, Castro ran a 109 WRC+, with league average strikeout and walk rates and a .742. OPS. Castro also added a much needed defensive flexibility to any club that acquired him, as he started at least 5 games at six positions in 2025. However, upon arriving in Chicago, Castro went into a tailspin, posting a paltry 40 WRC+ with a sub .500 OPS in 110 PAs for the Cubs. Though he was on their postseason roster for the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds, Castro saw zero plate appearances and would’ve been benched in September if not for injuries providing him opportunities to play.

With that said, Castro would offer the Mariners the utility type player they now have a need for, who would allow the organization to use him at almost every position on the diamond. He still managed a 109 WRC+ against left handed pitching, which would allow for him to pair well with a handful of players on the roster at multiple positions.

This move also allows the Mariners the flexibility to move Victor Robles into more of a true 4th outfielder if they so choose, as Castro could also offer a platoon option with Dominic Canzone, while allowing Robles to be more of a spot starter or defensive replacement late in games for either corner outfield spot. Castro could also handle 2B and 3B as a RHH partner for both Williamson and Cole Young if necessary.

How The Roster Comes Together

Summary of Acquisitions

Arbitration: Non-Tender Trent Thornton and Tayler Saucedo, offer arbitration to all other players.

Free Agents: Josh Naylor and Willi Castro

Traded for Players: CJ Abrams and Angel Zerpa

Notes:

• Payroll did end up staying under the $170m threshold by roughly $2.8m, but those numbers can be adjusted based on performance bonuses, arbitration estimates, etc.

• Willi Castro is not listed as a starter, but would be likely act in a Dylan Moore like UTIL role, and would get regular starts in the OF as well as some time at 2B and 3B

• Ben Williamson gets the last spot on the bench to provide a surefire defensive option at third base in case the Abrams solution does not work and Abrams needs to be shifted to 2B

• In the above instance Cole Young would move to the bench, or potentially to AAA pending there is an alternate option in Tacoma that better fits the rosters needs

• Dominic Canzone as my DH isn’t necessarily ideal, but it does feel as if the Mariners plans include Cal Raleigh getting more rest from behind the plate. I tend to hope that is the plan as well, especially if Cal’s defense continues to slide over the length of his contract

• The bullpen’s final three spots of Hancock, Vargas and Santos are very interchangeable. The only likely lock here would be Vargas given he has no options remaining - both Hancock and Santos could be optioned to AAA in case a pile reliever makes the team out of camp.

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Note: This is part 4 of a 5 part series reviewing the 2026 Seattle Mariners.

1. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 1: 2026 Mariners Roster As Is

2. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 2: Free Agent Fits per Position

3. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 3: Trade Targets per Position

4. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 4: The F.O Off-Season Plan

5. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 5: My Off-Season Plan (Coming Soon)

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Prologue

With the review of the 2026 Roster as is, Free Agent Fits and Trade Targets out of the way, I wanted to take two different routes to handling an off-season plan.

Given some fans (this author included) like to put together their own off-season plans on how the Mariners could fill out a roster, I often find that regardless of staying within the same restrictions (money, prospects, etc.), my plan often varies from what I believe the front office will actually wind up doing.

With that in mind, I decided to put together two separate plans this year - the first plan, which will be outlined in this write-up, will be centered around how I think the front office would handle the off-season, while the second plan (to be released later) will be focused on how I would handle the off-season if I was in charge of roster construction.

Current Roster and Expected Restrictions

NOTE: All references of financials and current roster structure will come from Fangraphs Roster Resource, with numbers rounded for easier math. I will also only focus on expected payroll for the 26 man roster. All prospect rankings will be utilized through MLB Pipeline due to them being the most up-to-date.

Current Payroll for 2026: $134m

Expected Payroll for 2026: $170m

Current Under Contract Players:

• SP, Luis Castillo - $24.15m, signed through 2027 with a vesting option for 2028.

• C, Cal Raleigh - $12.67m, signed through 2030 with a vesting option for 2031.

• CF, Julio Rodriguez - $20.18m signed through 2029, with conditional club options after 2029 (8 or 10 years), with alternative player options for 2030-2034.

• SS, J.P Crawford - $12m signed through 2026.

• RF, Victor Robles - $5.12m signed through 2026 with a club option in 2027.

Current Option Eligible Players:

• 2B/DH, Jorge Polanco - $6m player option for 2026

  • (Update: this was declined by Polanco)

• RP, Andrés Muñoz - $7m club option for 2026, $8m club in 2027, $10m club in 2028

  • (Update: this was picked up by the club)

Current Arbitration Eligible Players:

• Randy Arozarena - MLBTR Projected - $18.2m

• Trent Thornton - MLBTR Projected - $2.5m

• Logan Gilbert - MLBTR Projected -$10m

• Gabe Speier - MLBTR Projected - $1.7m

• George Kirby - MLBTR Projected - $5.4m

• Luke Raley - MLBTR Projected - $1.8m

• Matt Brash - MLBTR Projected - $1.8m

• Gregory Santos - MLBTR Projected - $800k

• Bryce Miller - MLBTR Projected - $2.4m

• Tayler Saucedo - MLBTR Projected - $1.1m

Current Pre-Arbitration Eligible Players:

• RP, Eduard Bazardo

• RP, Carlos Vargas

• SP, Bryan Woo

• RF/DH, Dominic Canzone

• UTIL, Miles Mastrobuoni

• C, Harry Ford

• 2B, Cole Young

• 2B, Ryan Bliss

• 2B, Leo Rivas

• 3B, Ben Williamson

Current Expected Lineup, Rotation and Bullpen:

Arbitration Decisions

The Mariners will likely move on from both Trent Thornton and Tayler Saucedo, thus freeing up roughly $3.6m in projected arbitration cost.

Thornton, unfortunately, suffered a season ending achilles injury following the trade deadline, and will likely be sidelined for most if not all of 2026 as well. I do believe there is a high chance the Mariners would bring back Thornton on a MiLB deal regardless, but there’s no scenario I can see where the Mariners will be willing to pay $2.5m for a reliever you may not see in 2026.

Saucedo’s non-tenure is more performance based, and is more clear considering his injury filled 2025, as well as his spot on the pecking order in the bullpen. Realistically, the Mariners can look for non-arbitration eligible arms who could fill a theoretical second lefty spot in the bullpen, and there is always a chance they could sign Saucedo back on a minor league deal if he’s open to it.

Move 1: Re-Sign Jorge Polanco

Contract: 2 years, $30m ($15m AAV) with a 3rd year club option at $15m ($2m buyout)

If you are wondering why the first move of the off-season is Jorge Polanco, and not the beloved Josh Naylor, let me explain.

First of all, I tend to believe that of the upcoming free agents leaving the Mariners roster, Polanco will likely be the easiest to re-sign. I had laid out on Twitter a potential avenue I would hope the Mariners could explore, where they could hypothetical convince Polanco to opt in to his 2026 contract, while also giving him a two year extension to guarantee him until 2028. However, I am operating in the mindset that Polanco will either re-structure, or opt out (he did) and test the open market.

Admittedly, I see Polanco’s market looking very similar to Mitch Garver’s from 2023, where his lack of durability and age will slot him slightly lower than what his market could have been if he had performed in 2024 the way he did in 2025.

Yes, Polanco had an incredible 2025 season, however, given Polanco has:

• Played more than 118 games once since ‘22

• Averaged 113 games a year in full seasons (non-COVID/14-15)

• Has posted 2+ fWAR 3 times in ten years

• Is going to be playing ‘26 in his age 33 season

I’d be pretty surprised if his market went much higher than the $15m AAV I have proposed in this deal. That said, I do believe the front office would look to structure Polanco’s contract similarly to that of Garver’s by adding on an additional club option at a lower AAV, but with a buyout that would bring his total guaranteed money to $32m.

Now, there is also an additional reason for why I have Polanco listed as the first move in this plan, and it is certainly going to upset most of you who read this.

I do not believe the Front Office will inevitably go the extra distance to re-sign Josh Naylor this off-season.

Seeing projections from outlets such as The Athletic and Baseball America have me concerned that the Front Office will look at Naylor, and understand that there is a likely limited growth to what he can be as a player moving forward despite his age. I do think the front office will do what it can to re-sign him, however, I do think other teams such as the Mets and Red Sox could be willing to go to 5 guaranteed years, or to a higher AAV than the Mariners front office will be comfortable going to.

By the beginning of the 2026 season, I expect that only one of Eugenio Suarez, Josh Naylor or Jorge Polanco will be in a Mariners uniform, and of the group, Polanco feels like he’s the most likely.

AUTHOR’S NOTE: Polanco officially opted out of his contract on November 5th.

Move 2: The Mariners acquire Brandon Lowe

Mariners Receive: 1B/2B/DH Brandon Lowe

Tampa Bay Receives: UTIL Brock Rodden and RHP Troy Taylor

When doing an off-season plan that revolves around the front office, and how we think they may operate, it almost feels reckless to not include the Tampa Bay Rays as part of the strategy. To date, Jerry Dipoto in his tenure has made seventeen trades with the Tampa Bay Rays (JUST KIDDING IT’S EIGHTEEN NOW), by far the most he’s made with any franchise.

Now, with the Rays under new ownership, there is always the possibility that their operating styles may change - but until we see that, we will continue to operate under the idea that the Rays will trade players who make real money, especially when that player has minimal control remaining - Brandon Lowe, as it so happens, falls into both of those categories.

Lowe continued his consistency in 2025, posting a 114 WRC+ and a .784 OPS, which does fall in line (though slightly short of) his career averages. Lowe did unfortunately see a noticeable dip in production over the second half of the season, including an ugly .217/.247/.398 line over the course of September and October.

What was noticeable for me, however, was Lowe’s home road splits, and how he actually hit significantly worse in the very friendly George Steinbrenner Stadium than he did on the road. At home, Lowe had a .240/.279/.456 line for a 97 WRC+, but on the road, hit .275/.337/.500 for a 132 WRC+.

As I had laid out in the third part of this series, I went back and forth on Yandy Diaz vs. Brandon Lowe as the better fit for the Mariners, but inevitably landed on Lowe after seeing Diaz’ increase in slugging being a bit of a product of hitting in the third friendliest ballpark for right handed hitters.

For his career, Lowe has seen a fair amount of success playing in T-Mobile Park, where over 48 PAs has a .943 OPS, though that does come with a slightly elevated K rate (29.1% compared to 27.3% career). Obviously this is a small sample size, but identifying hitters who have seen success in Seattle specifically does tend to ease the mind of this author.

Financially, Lowe has a club option for 2026 worth $11.5m, and on top of the $15m already promised to Polanco in this plan, more or less splits the potential money (plus a few million) owed to Josh Naylor across two players who would help cover first base, second base and designated hitter when Cal Raleigh is behind the plate.

In terms of compensation, I tried my best to model this deal to a lower compensation to that of the Teoscar Hernandez deal from 2022, where the Mariners traded an at the time top 10 prospect (weaker farm in 2022) in Adam Macko, and three years of control of Erik Swanson, who at the time, was coming off of a career year. At the time, Teoscar, 30, was coming off of a 3.0 fWAR year, with a 130 WRC+ and wound up earning $14m through arbitration. Lowe will be slightly less expensive, but is a year older and has not put up a season like that since 2021.

In return, the Rays get UTIL Brock Rodden who is currently ranked 22nd in the MLB Pipeline Mariners Top 30. Rodden has been in the Mariners system for 3 years now, and will be Rule 5 eligible come December, and must be included on the 40 man roster in order to avoid being subject to the Rule 5 draft.

Rodden had an injury riddled season in AA Arkansas, where he posted a .293/.365/.452 line with a 139 WRC+ in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in minor league baseball - and was shut down permanently in August after suffering a fractured hamate. In his previous full season in 2024, Rodden posted a 116 WRC+ across two levels, but struggled initially upon his debut in Arkansas. Rodden has spent time at 2B, SS and 3B in his time with Seattle, and could serve as a potential utility man for Tampa as early as 2026 pending his injury heals, and he picks up from where he left off in 2025.

Troy Taylor is a bit of a wild card option here for Tampa Bay, but of all the organizations to take a shot on the glimpses seen from Taylor in 2024, it might be them.

Taylor had a disastrous season in 2025, going from someone who was expected to be a part of the backend of the bullpen in February, to a guy running a 28% HR/FB rate in 44.2 IP in AAA. Taylor showed glimpses of who he could be in the major leagues in 2024 when he had a 3.39 xFIP and a 11.64 K/9 in 19.1 IP, but somewhere along the line between then and now, something has clearly gotten out of whack for Taylor, to the point where he has become a bit of an afterthought for most fans.

That said, Tampa could view this package as two players who could contribute on their roster as early as 2026, and would both come with 5+ years of control - which could likely be what it takes to get Lowe to Seattle.

Note: This package could be considered light, but it is almost impossible to understand Tampa Bay and their wants and needs. I think most Mariners fans would view the Randy Arozarena deal as a win for the Mariners based on the names that they didn’t give up, however, the Rays did the deal regardless. I would be amendable to adding just about any non-top half prospect to this package and wouldn’t really flinch.

Move 3: Mariners Acquire Angel Zerpa

Mariners Receive: LHP Angel Zerpa

Kansas City Receives: 1B/OF Luke Raley, RHP Teddy McGraw and OF Victor Labrada

Tying back to my Trade Deadline Strategy article back in July, the Royals and the Mariners seem to be almost natural trade partners given the needs for both. The Mariners are in desperate need of another strikeout arm, particularly from the left side, while the Royals are in desperate need of additional production from their outfield, particularly now that Mike Yastrzemski has entered free agency.

Now, Zerpa hasn’t necessarily been a strikeout guy in his career, where he only has a 7.63 K/9, but what he does have is velocity, and a ground ball arsenal that led to him having a top five ground ball rate of all qualified relief pitchers in baseball last season.

Zerpa can be a little homer prone, however a transition to T-Mobile Park could help lower that for him, instead of the House of Horrors that is Kauffman Stadium in the summer time.

From a compensation standpoint, I viewed this similarly through the lense of the Gregory Santos trade from 2024, where the Mariners parted with a journeyman outfielder, a potential bullpen prospect with high octane stuff, and their Competitive Balance Round B pick that they had available to them. Given the Mariners do not currently have a pick to offer, I circled back to a trade proposal from the above mentioned trade deadline article where I proposed Dominic Canzone and Teddy McGraw for Lucas Erceg, but instead, subbed in Luke Raley as the outfielder of choice.

Raley had an injury filled 2025 which has left him in an interesting spot with the organization. Raley was given opportunities at first base, which could be valuable for the Mariners organization if they were left at the alter for any available options this off-season, but his performance there was… middling… to say the least. With the breakout from Dominic Canzone, Raley feels as if he might be best suited for a role with another organization. With three years of arbitration remaining, and two years of proven success in the majors, Raley acts as the pseudo-lead in this package for Kansas City, a team that finished dead last in major league baseball in terms of WRC+ from its outfield.

Teddy McGraw, in this case, acts as the value of the Comp B pick from the Santos trade. Currently ranked 14th in the Mariners prospect ranks, McGraw brings electric stuff, with three pitches (FB, SL, CU) that all have current 50 grades, with future value room to grow on each. Unfortunately, McGraw also brings a very long list of arm injuries, which inevitably lead to him falling to the 3rd Round of the 2023 Draft. At this point, McGraw is likely suited for a bullpen role. The Mariners did have him work as a starter this year, but he was limited to no more than 3 innings per outing. McGraw is Rule 5 eligible, though it would be a surprise to see a team take him to be on their 26 man roster for next season given he has not yet thrown a pitch above A+ ball.

Victor Labrada slides in as the DeLoach type in this deal, as a journeyman outfielder who has never really garnered much traction in prospect rankings, despite back to back productive years in the minor leagues. Already 25, Labrada is a small statured speedster type who saw a breakthrough in 2025 after making adjustments at Driveline during the off-season. Labrada posted career bests in average and OBP, while posting the second best WRC+ of his career. Labrada is Rule 5 eligible, and has been before - but his 2025 breakout might require whatever team employs his services to place him on their 40 man to avoid losing him in December.

Move 4: Mariners Acquire Brendan Donovan

Mariners Receive: UTIL Brendan Donovan

St. Louis Cardinals Receive: RHP Logan Evans, 2B Michael Arroyo and OF Tai Peete

With two years of arbitration control remaining, Brendan Donovan fits this front office’s mold of acquiring players in their arbitration years. Despite my previous thoughts on why I think acquiring Donovan to play 3B would be a poor use of his skillset in my previous article, this plan is meant to be from the eyes of the Front Office - and given the organization tried to justify Jorge Polanco as their starting third baseman in 2025, it would not surprise me in the least to see them try the same thing with Donovan.

Donovan has experience playing almost every position on the diamond outside of catcher and centerfield, with the lion share of his time over the last two seasons being at second and in left. Given the inevitable free agency of Randy Arozarena in 2027, Donovan would potentially solve multiple issues for the Mariners over multiple seasons, while also adding some additional flexibility in 2026 in case of injury across the diamond.

Donovan has played third base only 15 times in the past three seasons, including zero appearances in 2025, but he did appear in 31 games at third in 2022, with positive results in terms of Outs Above Average. It might be a stretch to expect he could just pick it back up in 2026, but again, the front office has tried other less likely fits as recently as this March.

Logan Evans might not have the allure to a healthy portion of the fan base in terms of what his value can be, but for a St. Louis Cardinals ball club who is looking to trade Sonny Gray, and will enter the season (barring free agent adds) with potentially 3-4 spots in their rotation up for grabs, Evans fits a need as someone with major league experience who can come in and compete for a job immediately.

Evans started 15 games for the Mariners this year with rather pedestrian results. His 4.32 ERA is inflated from two very rough starts in Sacramento and New York, but his FIP being above 5 also suggests that overall body of work was actually relatively lucky.

His 6.53 K/9 is lower than you would hope from a starter, but he does have a minor league track record of a much more palatable 8.72 K/9. Evans uses a six pitch mix to help keep batters off-balance, but his future may be dictated on figuring out which of those pitches can get more consistent swing and miss. He is likely a back of the rotation type arm, but could eventually be looked at again for a bullpen role, something the Mariners tried in 2024.

Michael Arroyo will undoubtedly be the most painful piece in this trade for most readers, but with two years of control on an above average proven bat in Brendan Donovan, it’s unlikely the Mariners will be able to complete this trade without parting with one of their higher range prospects.

Arroyo is the definition of “have bat, will travel” in terms of his prospect pedigree. Through three full seasons in the minors, Arroyo has yet to post lower than a 128 WRC+, and has flown through the Mariners system, finishing the year in AA Arkansas at the age of 20. Arroyo will likely start his 2026 in Arkansas again, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see Arroyo in AAA prior to the end of the year, with an outside shot of reaching the big leagues if his hitting continues.

The one struggle with Arroyo is where exactly you put him in the field. He saw some growth at 2B defensively, but there have been early rumblings that the Mariners could potentially give him more of a look in the outfield next season. The bat will likely keep him comfortably in most top 100 rankings, but his defensive limitations will likely keep him from breaking into the upper echelon of prospect sheets.

Tai Peete struggled offensively in 2025 with the jump to A+ ball, but there may not be another prospect in the Mariners system that has as much flash in his tools as Peete does.

Offensively, there is a continued concern with his plate discipline, as his last two seasons have ended with a strikeout rate north of 30%. Peete does show a great blend of power and speed, and finished only one home run shy of a 20/20 season in A+ ball this year, despite the strikeout issues.

Defensively, Peete transitioned from the infield dirt to centerfield this year, and did so with great success. Peete was a regular on the Mariners Minors Twitter account, and showed the speed and natural ability to stick in centerfield moving forward. In a Cardinals system that is desperate for outfield help, Peete would likely immediately rank as the best outfield prospect in their system, but would still be 2-3 years away from having any impact on the major league roster.

Move 5: Mariners Sign Willi Castro

Contract: 1 year, $9m

In the final move, the Mariners look to continue to add flexibility to their roster by adding Willi Castro on a one year prove it deal, a deal he will likely now have to consider given his performance in Chicago following the trade deadline.

Castro was a very popular trade target this past July for Mariners fans, but was quickly forgotten about following the surprise plane ride by one Eugenio Suárez, and the middle of the night Passan bomb that sent the Mariners twitter-sphere into a tizzy.

Castro was on pace for this third straight season of posting at least a 106 WRC+ until his trade to the the north side of Chicago seemed to sap him of any BABIP magic he may have had in his time in Minnesota.

Prior to the trade, Castro ran a 109 WRC+, with league average strikeout and walk rates and a .742. OPS. Castro also added a much needed defensive flexibility to any club that acquired him, as he started at least 5 games at six positions in 2025. However, upon arriving in Chicago, Castro went into a tailspin, posting a paltry 40 WRC+ with a sub .500 OPS in 110 PAs for the Cubs. Though he was on their postseason roster for the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds, Castro saw zero plate appearances and would’ve been benched in September if not for injuries providing him opportunities to play.

With that said, Castro would offer the Mariners another utility type to go with Brendan Donovan, who would allow the organization to use him at almost every position on the diamond. He still managed a 109 WRC+ against left handed pitching, which would allow for him to pair well with a handful of players on the roster at multiple positions.

This move also allows the Mariners the flexibility to move Victor Robles into more of a true 4th outfielder if they so choose, as Castro could also offer a platoon option with Dominic Canzone, while allowing Robles to be more of a spot starter or defensive replacement late in games for either corner outfield spot. Castro could also handle 2B and 3B as a RHH partner for both Donovan and Cole Young if necessary.

How The Roster Comes Together

Summary of Acquisitions

Arbitration: Non-Tender Trent Thornton and Tayler Saucedo, offer arbitration to all other players.

Free Agents: Jorge Polanco and Willi Castro

Traded for Players: Brandon Lowe, Brendan Donovan and Angel Zerpa

Notes:

• Payroll did end up clearing my $170m threshold by roughly $725k, but those numbers can be adjusted based on performance bonuses, arbitration estimates, etc.

• Willi Castro is not listed as a starter, but would be against LHP as seen below

• Ben Williamson gets the last spot on the bench to provide a surefire defensive option at third base in case the Donovan solution does not work

• Donovan would move to second base full time in this case, and Cole Young would move to the bench, or potentially to AAA pending there is an alternate option in Tacoma that better fits the rosters needs

• First Base is definitely light with backup options, but backup 1B is not really an option on rosters, and Polanco would serve as your emergency option based on him getting some non-game reps there in 2025

• The bullpen’s final three spots of Hancock, Vargas and Santos are very interchangeable. The only likely lock here would be Vargas given he has no options remaining - both Hancock and Santos could be optioned to AAA in case a pile reliever makes the team out of camp.

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Note: This is part 3 of a 5 part series reviewing the 2026 Seattle Mariners.

1. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 1: 2026 Mariners Roster As Is

2. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 2: Free Agent Fits per Position

3. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 3: Trade Targets per Position

4. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 4: The F.O Off-Season Plan (Coming Soon)

5. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 5: My Off-Season Plan (Coming Soon)

Prologue

Given the Mariners well documented strategy of solving roster questions via the trade market, this part of the series was probably the one I felt most comfortable sitting down to write.

Despite a much slower 2024-25 trade off-season that the team clearly was not expecting, the organization has made a living in off-seasons by re-allocating funds or acquiring arbitration eligible type players as their preferred method of roster construction. Some of this can be attributed to lack of resources put forward by ownership, but a healthy portion of their decision making can also be tied back to their Draft, Develop and Trade organizational philosophy, where they typically avoid handing out multi-year contracts to free agents, particularly to positional players.

With one of the deepest farms in baseball, the Mariners in theory are well positioned to once again address holes on the roster via the trade market, but from the department of “It Takes Two to Tango”, this method will always be restricted based on what the market bears, what other organizations see as valuable in the Mariners ranks, and finding the right match where both parties come away happy.

Regardless, today we will take a look at trade targets per position (with some being much more pressing than others), as well as reviewing the target’s current needs at the minor and major league level, and how the Mariners could be a match.

Catcher

Target: Luis Campusano, San Diego Padres

2025 Stat Line: 27 PAs, .000/.222/.000, -5 WRC+, -0.4 fWAR

San Diego Farm Needs: Position Players, Depth

San Diego Major League Needs: Starting Pitching, Salary Relief

To preface, catcher is likely the least probable position where the Mariners will be looking this upcoming off-season, that is, unless the organization uses Harry Ford in a subsequent trade. Given the organization carried Harry Ford on its roster for September, and the presence of all-world Cal Raleigh, it would appear as if the Mariners have their catching room in order for 2026 and beyond.

But in the instance that the Mariners do choose to trade Harry Ford (potentially in a trade with the Padres) buying low on post hype prospect Luis Campusano could offer a way for the Mariners to backfill their backup catching spot without needing to use other resources.

Campusano, now two years removed from what looked to be a breakout in 2023, has struggled mightily over the last two seasons. Even with the Padres ranking in the bottom third of the league in both WRC+ and fWAR at the position, Campusano struggled to take the reigns behind the plate, and saw significant step backs both in his defense, and his approach at the plate.

Despite all of the bad, Campusano once ranked as high as 44th in 2022 in the MLB Pipeline Top 100 and will only be 27 for the majority of the 2026 season. As an organization, the Mariners have often gravitated to prospect pedigree types, especially ones who have shown glimpses of their potential. With zero minor league options remaining, Campusano would need to be on the 26 man roster on Opening Day, or be subject to waivers, where another team would likely take a flier on the prospect pedigree as well. Campusano would come with 3 years of control, and would likely cost nothing more than a flier prospect at this point in his career. As I said above, I don’t see an avenue where the Mariners would acquire Campusano if Cal Raleigh and Harry Ford are both in camp come February, but he would serve as an interesting flier to take for the back-up catcher role if that were not the case.

First Base

Target: Alec Burleson, St. Louis Cardinals

2025 Stat Line: 546 PAs, .290/.343/.459, 124 WRC+, 2.1 fWAR

St. Louis Farm Needs: Outfield, Right Handed Pitching

St. Louis Major League Needs: Starting Pitching, Outfield, Third Base

In the instance where the Mariners do not re-sign Josh Naylor, and are either uninterested or outbid on Kazuma Okamoto, they will likely need to address the hole at 1B via trade, given they will likely not be swimming in the Pete Alonso free agency waters.

Alec Burleson experienced a bit of a breakout in 2025, posting career full season highs in WRC+, OPS, walk percentage, average, OBP and SLG, while also striking out at a well below league average rate of 14.5%. A left hander, Burleson was also relatively split proof, with a 98 WRC+ against LHP and a 132 WRC+ against RHP, though the majority of his power does come against right handers.

So with that in mind, why would Burleson be available? Well, the Cardinals are in a bit of a transition phase with Chaim Bloom recently taking the reigns as the President of Baseball Operations from long time exec John Mozeliak. The roster as is has proven to not be good enough in a tough NL Central division, and the Cardinals ownership group isn’t necessarily one to set out to solve their problems by spending big. In a sense, the Cardinals find themselves in a bit of the same position as the Mariners did in 2018, and will likely look to shuffle the roster while also continuing to add to a farm that has seen growth over the past few seasons.

If the Mariners identify Burleson as their 1B of the future, the cost here is going to be tricky. Burleson has been a fringe top 50 hitter in baseball in terms of WRC+ and OPS over the past two season, is only 26 years old and comes with three years of arbitration control. However, he’s a 1B/DH type who can play corner outfield, but probably shouldn’t. Of the targets listed in this write-up, Burleson would likely be one of the more expensive options to acquire, but would provide the Mariners with a long term solution at 1B, a position in which the Mariners have little to no prospect of solving internally.

Second Base

Target: Brendan Donovan, St. Louis Cardinals

2025 Stat Line: 515 PAs, .287/.353/.422, 119 WRC+, 2.9 fWAR

St. Louis Farm Needs: Outfield, Right Handed Pitching

St. Louis Major League Needs: Starting Pitching, Outfield, Third Base

Of the positions in the organization that the Mariners have theoretically depth at, second base is likely at the top. But to take from the old adage of “if you have two Quarterbacks, you have none”, just because the Mariners have depth, doesn’t mean they have a true starter.

With two years of arbitration control remaining, Brendan Donovan fits this front office’s mold of acquiring players in their arbitration years, and though he’s listed as a second baseman for this exercise, also fills a need in the UTIL role with the decline and inevitable departure of Dylan Moore.

Donovan has experience playing almost every position on the diamond outside of catcher and centerfield, though his primary positions over the last two seasons have been at second and in left field. Given the lack of certifiable starter at second base, and the inevitable free agency of Randy Arozarena in 2027, Donovan would potentially solve multiple issues for the Mariners over multiple seasons, while also adding some additional flexibility in 2026 in case of injury across the diamond.

In a perfect world, you’d love to see Donovan slot in as your third baseman for 2026, however, Donovan has played third base only 15 times in the past three seasons, including zero appearances in 2025. He did appear in 31 games at third in 2022, with positive results in terms of Outs Above Average, but expecting him to slot in as an opening day third baseman would likely be a misuse of his skillset given his flexibility to play other positions, and play them well.

In terms of trade cost, Donovan is compares similarly to the cost of Randy Arozarena due to his control and his overall value. The two full seasons prior to being acquired by the Mariners (and with 2.5 years of control remaining), Arozarena was worth 5.8 fWAR and posted a 124 WRC+, and at the time of being acquired, was 29.

Donovan, who will have 2 years of control, has been worth 6.1 fWAR and has posted a 117 WRC+ in the same two year lead-up, and would be entering his age 29 season as well.

Shortstop

Target: CJ Abrams, Washington Nationals

2025 Stat Line: 635 PAs, .257/.315/.433, 107 WRC+, 3.1 fWAR

Washington Farm Needs: Outfield, Corner Infield, Catcher

Washington Major League Needs: Every Position that James Wood Doesn’t Play

A few prefaces to begin the conversation around CJ Abrams.

Though Abrams has played SS for the entirety of his career, I’m not so sure Abrams should continue to see that defensive position moving forward. Since 2022, CJ Abrams has ranked dead last (by a wide margin) in terms of Outs Above Average at the shortstop position (ironically, right in front of J.P Crawford).

The difficulty here with Abrams is his biggest areas of concern in terms of fielding are on balls he has to charge, as well as balls hit to his left - which hypothetically could make him a difficult fit at third base, which would be the position I would hope the Mariners would try to transition him to if acquired. But at only 25 years of age, and with three years of arb control remaining, he is certainly a player the Mariners could look to take a chance on defensively, in the hopes that Perry Hill could help Abrams improve on the true weak point in his game.

Offensively, Abrams has averaged 19 home runs and 36 stolen bases over his last three full seasons, while also offering a slightly above average WRC+. Though his speed might lead you to think he could be a viable leadoff option, a spot in which he’s hit out of for more than 50% of his career, Abrams is not necessarily an on-base type, and has only carried a 5.3 BB% for his career.

Similar to Burleson above, the value here on Abrams could be pretty tricky. On one hand, you’re acquiring a cost controlled 25 year old who “plays” a premium position and has been an above average bat over his last 1200 PAs - on the other hand, Abrams doesn’t really have a defined defensive position you can currently trust him in, and there have been past instances off the field that led to a minor league demotion, and originally opened the idea of him being available in trades in the past.

There is a bit of a risk here in acquiring Abrams, and the prospect cost would likely be pretty stiff, but it is clear the talent is there.

Third Base

Target: Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies

2025 Stat Line: 504 PAs, .287/.331/.409, 105 WRC+, 1.7 fWAR

Philadelphia Farm Needs: Catcher, Corner Infield

Philadelphia Major League Needs: Catcher, Outfield, Bullpen

A popular name for the Mariners during the 2024-25 off-season, Alec Bohm will likely find himself on the trade market again in 2025, especially with the emergence of Otto Kemp, and potentially the arrival and position switch of Aidan Miller.

The difficulty with Alec Bohm isn’t necessarily the player himself, who for a lack of a better term has been completely adequate over the past three seasons. No - the difficulty with Alec Bohm comes down to whether or not President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski is actually willing to have real conversations around actually trading Alec Bohm.

During the 2024-25 off-season, the Mariners and the Athletics were reportedly interested in Bohm’s services - but Dombrowski’s reported compensation asks of George Kirby or Logan Gilbert, as well as asking for Mason Miller, made it evidently clear that the Phillies were not seriously considering trading Alec Bohm. If Dombrowski continues to treat Alec Bohm like peak Arenado in terms of asking price, he can be free to enjoy Bohm’s services for one more season.

If the Phillies are in fact ready to have real conversations, Bohm’s fit with the Mariners does make sense. He’s by no means a middle of the order bat, but would slide nicely into the back half of the Mariners lineup, while providing a slightly above average glove at third base, where he ranks 16th amongst 38 qualified 3B in terms of Outs Above Average over the past three seasons.

Bohm is only controlled for one more season at an estimated $10.3m in arbitration, so he would be a temporary fix for the 2026 season - but would certainly provide an offensive upgrade on the incumbent third base options the Mariners are facing.

Again, the trade cost for Bohm is almost impossible to predict given Dombrowski’s previous attempts of turning on force trades in real life, but hypothetically, the cost for Bohm should be less than the Erik Swanson and Adam Macko trade for Teoscar Hernandez from a few off-seasons prior.

Outfield

Target: Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians

2025 Stat Line: 693 PAs, .272/.330/.374, 99 WRC+, 3.2 fWAR

Farm Needs: Starting Pitching, Corner Infield

Major League Needs: Hitting, Hitting and More Hitting

The first question you may be asking yourself upon reading the major league needs for the Guardians could be “why would the Guardians trade hitting, when they need hitting?” (Spoiler: Because they are cheap.)

To add to that, the Guardians, who wound up going on one of the more improbable end of season runs in recent memory, were actively shopping Steven Kwan at the deadline, and often look to capitalize on players in their arbitration years in order to continue a strong minor league pipeline for their major league club to remain young, competitive and more importantly, cheap.

Given the Mariners desperate need for a true leadoff hitter, Kwan would certainly fill a need for the organization - however, there are a couple of hiccups here when considering a Kwan trade.

First - there is the question of current incumbent Randy Arozarena and his projected $18m arbitration number. Randy is certainly the better power bat, and carries similar on base value to that of Kwan, but his defense in left field is suspect at best, and the idea of shifting him to DH doesn’t hold much merit given his 30 point drop in WRC+, and near 100 point drop in OPS when he is not playing in the field over his career. Alternatively, shifting Randy to right field also doesn’t fit, given he hasn’t played in that position since 2022, and graded in the 14th percentile in terms of arm value in 2025. Realistically, if the Mariners were to acquire Kwan, it may come at the expense of Randy Arozarena as part of the 2026 Mariners club.

Secondly - there is the question of cost in terms of Steven Kwan’s services. Reportedly, the Guardians were asking the San Diego Padres for top 5 prospect Leo De Vries, and MORE, in return for Kwan this deadline. Now, this could have been a tactic of not wanting to give up on a season unless the offer was too good to decline, but it is clear that though the Guardians are willing to part with Kwan, the asking price may be something most teams would, and should, turn down.

Kwan would be under arbitration control for two more years, and offers gold glove defense in left field, something the Mariners could desperately use. However, trade cost and current fit could make Kwan a tricky fit unless other moves are made first.

Designated Hitter

Target: Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays

2025 Stat Line: 553 PAs, .256/.307/.477, 114 WRC+, 1.7 fWAR

Tampa Bay Farm Needs: Catcher, Third Base, Left Handed Pitching

Tampa Bay Major League Needs: Catcher, Outfield, Real Stadium

Admittedly, Brandon Lowe and Yandy Díaz could be interchangeable here, as both are guaranteed under control for one more season (Díaz does have a club option in 2027 as well), and both could slide into a DH role with some flexibility for other positions. That said, I chose to go with Lowe for this exercise because I am not necessarily buying in on Díaz’ return to form with his slugging, given he had a significant home/road split (18 HR at home vs. 7 on the road) compared to Lowe (15 HR at home vs. 16 on the road), while playing in the third friendliest ballpark for right handed hitters.

An additional benefit for Lowe over Díaz here also comes from Lowe’s ability to play 1B and 2B, which in a way, makes him a suitable Jorge Polanco replacement if his market gets too rich for the organization.

Similar to Polanco, Lowe has struggled with injuries through his career, and his 134 games played last season was the highest he had in a single year since 2021, which just so happens to be the only season he has played more than 140 games in.

Financially, Lowe has a club option for 2026 worth $11.5m, one that even a frugal franchise such as the Rays will almost certainly pick up - and would likely slot in financially for what the Mariners might likely set as a relative cap on what they are willing to bring back Polanco on.

As for trade compensation, the Rays have a definite need through their organization at catcher, but Harry Ford would not really match here without more coming back from Tampa, and I’d doubt the Mariners would be looking to trade Luke Stevenson for a 31 year old DH rental either. Realistically, Lowe’s value probably falls similarly to Alec Bohm’s, though his offensive production might warrant additional compensation.

Relief Pitcher

Target: Angel Zerpa, Kansas City Royals

2025 Stat Line: 64.2 IP, 21.1 K%, 8.0 BB%, 4.18 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 0.3 fWAR

Kansas City Farm Needs: Outfield, Corner Infield, Left Handed Pitching

Kansas City Major League Needs: Hitting, Hitting and More Hitting

In the continued quest for a second left handed option out of the bullpen, Angel Zerpa fits the bill as a player the Mariners absolutely would love to have, but the question comes down more to whether or not he’s available.

Tying back to my Trade Deadline Strategy article back in July, the Royals and the Mariners seem to be almost natural trade partners given the needs for both. The Mariners are in desperate need of another strikeout arm, particularly from the left side, while the Royals are in desperate need of additional production from their outfield, particularly now that Mike Yastrzemski has entered free agency.

Now, Zerpa hasn’t necessarily been a strikeout guy in his career, where he only has a 7.63 K/9, but what he does have is velocity, and a ground ball arsenal that led to him having a top five ground ball rate of all qualified relief pitchers in baseball last season.

Zerpa can be a little homer prone, however a transition to T-Mobile Park could help lower that for him, instead of the House of Horrors that is Kauffman Stadium in the summer time.

As mentioned above, his availability could be something that makes this a non-starter. He is coming off a down year in terms of ERA, but he did have the lowest FIP in a full season for his career, while also having the highest fastball velocity. Zerpa is under arbitration control for the next three seasons, so any acquisition of him would likely be pricey. I had proposed a Dominic Canzone and Teddy McGraw type deal for Lucas Erceg in my plan last July, and maybe there is some similar value there, but at 26 with three years of control, convincing the Royals to part with him might be tough.

Starting Pitcher

Target: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

2025 Stat Line: 195.1 IP, 32.2 K%, 4.4 BB%, 2.21 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 6.6 fWAR

Farm Needs: For Skubal? The Best You Are Willing to Offer.

Major League Needs: See Above.

There really isn’t much to review here on Skubal that most Mariners fans don’t already know.

Skubal is one of the best two pitchers in baseball, throws a bajillion miles per hour, is under control for one more season - and is absolutely going to go to free agency.

In a better world where all ownerships were built like the Dodgers, Skubal wouldn’t even be available, and would have already signed his generational contract to be a Tiger for life, but alas, we do not live in that world.

To be clear, any Skubal trade absolutely means the removal of Luis Castillo and the entirety of his contract from the Mariners rotation, which in itself, could be a challenge. But on top of that, the Tigers are by no means required to trade Tarik Skubal, and likely will not unless they are given the market value that they themselves will set.

I know there have been comps made to the Corbin Burnes trade, but with no disrespect intended to Burnes, he is not Tarik Skubal. The compensation here would be hard to swallow, and there is a high likelihood you would be acquiring his services for just this season - but for an organization that wants to bring a World Series to Seattle, and has the farm depth that it does, there may not be a better team positioned to offer what it would take to get the soon to be back-to-back Cy Young Award winner.

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Note: This is part 2 of a 5 part series reviewing the 2026 Seattle Mariners.

1. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 1: 2026 Mariners Roster As Is

2. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 2: Free Agent Fits per Position

3. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 3: Trade Targets per Position (Coming Soon)

4. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 4: The F.O Off-Season Plan (Coming Soon)

5. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 5: My Off-Season Plan (Coming Soon)

Prologue

The Mariners are by no means a normal off-season free agency team. The front office has frequently made it’s hay building the roster primarily off of their Draft, Develop and Trade motto, leading fans to often feel let down by the lack of aggression during the off-season during the Dipoto regime.

Without regurgitating the specifics, the Mariners have only signed one position player to a multi-year deal under current leadership in the past decade, and have only made one major splash, with the Robbie Ray signing during the 2021 off-season - a five year pact, which saw Ray getting traded to San Francisco post the conclusion of his no-trade clause in January of 2024.

That said, with the recent comments from Dipoto and Hollander revolving around the upcoming free agency period, as well as the high profile free agents who spent their time in Seattle last season, we will take a look at each position to review potential fits for the 2026 club.

Catcher

Best Fit: Victor Caratini

Back-up Fit: Tom Murphy

Victor Caratini is coming off a slightly above average year at the plate with the Houston Astros, which was a near replica from his pseudo breakout season in 2024.

Caratini finished the year playing in 114 games while posting a 104 WRC+ with a .728 OPS over 386 PAs. Though his defensive metrics slid marginally from his previous three seasons, particularly in his throwing and framing metrics, Caratini still carried the same grades in blocking while producing a league average bat.

A switch hitter, Caratini was relatively platoon proof in terms of OPS (.740 vs. LHP, .726 vs. RHP) - but saw a significant dip in average against LHP, a role in which he only saw 62 PAs against in 2025. As a set back-up role with the Mariners, Caratini would allow the ability for Cal Raleigh to DH or rest regardless of split, and offer the Mariners a major league quality AB, while also allowing the flexibility to spare whoever plays first base in 2026.

Per Spotrac, Caratini is projected as a $2.2m market value, which would likely fit the Mariners budget if they didn’t feel comfortable with Harry Ford as their primary back-up come opening day.

Tom Murphy isn’t a free agent yet, but given a back injury that ended his 2025 season early, and his $4m club option, theres certainly a world where Murphy will be available come this off-season.

Murphy spent four very productive, very injured years with the Mariners from 2019-2023, where only once did Murph post a WRC+ lower than 126, and showed zero issues with hitting in TMobile, or any park for that matter.

However, his injuries continue to be an issue, and at 35 on opening day, Murphy would likely be no more than a flier for the major league roster as insurance for Harry Ford in the case that things go south, and admittedly, might be more in the realm of a minor league deal than anything. Murphy currently has no projected Spotrac market value, likely due to his club option, as well as his injury history - but if the Mariners, and Murphy, were interested in a reunion, there would be room on the depth chart in the instance the team decides to carry three catchers.

Probability of a Catcher FA Signing: 10%

First Base

Best Fit: Josh Naylor

Back-up Fit: Kazuma Okamoto

Let’s start with Josh Naylor, where we’ll reference a wanna-be Mariners blog writer for input:

Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s discuss the potential reality where the Mariners do not retain Josh Naylor’s services, and are forced to pivot.

Kazuma Okamoto is not the shiniest of potential first basemen who are coming over from Japan this season, but his profile, and cost, could very well fit the budget that the Mariners are likely working with.

At 29 years of age, turning 30 in June, Okamoto carries a similar (though lighter) batting profile to that of Seiya Suzuki, but will be making the transition stateside roughly 3 years later in his career than Suzuki did.

For his career, Okamoto carries a career .882 OPS, with a 10.7% BB rate and a 17.7% K rate in his time in the NPB. For comparisons sakes, Seiya Suzuki carried a .985 OPS, with a 13.7% BB rate and a 16.1% K rate prior to his transition stateside in 2022.

Okamoto did miss a healthy chunk of the 2025 season in the NPB with an elbow injury, but this is a bit of an outlier for Okamoto, who has played in 140 games or more in 6 of his 8 seasons as a professional.

The major concern with Okamoto could be his ability to hit velocity above 94 MPH, as Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs has noted in his scouting of Okamoto’s game in relation to the Major Leagues. That said, Longenhagen also points out that Okamoto only faced roughly 200 pitches of that speed in the NPB last season.

Okamoto does have the flexibility, to an extent, to play third base, as well as a corner outfield spot - for the point of this exercise, we are labeling Okamoto as a first baseman, a position he feels likely to slot in come 2026.

Spotrac does not have Okamoto valued at a the moment, but it is important to remember that acquiring Okamoto’s services would require the Mariners to go through the posting process on top of his projected contract. Most projections at this point have him in a similar range to that of Josh Naylor.

Probability of a 1B Free Agent Signing: 80%

Second Base

Best Fit: Jorge Polanco

Back-up Fit: Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Similar to the above first base review, there really isn’t much to discuss in terms of Jorge Polanco and his fit with the Seattle Mariners in 2026.

Realistically, Polo’s return will very likely come down to his upcoming market once he opts out of his player option, and the budget the Mariners are working with for the upcoming season.

Polanco would likely split time between second base and designated hitter if he were to return, but the Mariners will very likely face stiff competition for Polanco’s services, especially given the fact that he posted the best WRC+ of his career in 2025.

Kiner-Falefa fits here as a back-up option at second base, but any scenario where IKF winds up in Seattle in 2026 likely ends with him filling more of a Mastrobuoni type role given his ability to play 3 infield positions at an above average level.

IKF is by no means a masher, and has yet to post a single season with a WRC+ north of 100, but he’s a low strikeout, high contact type bat who offers slightly above average speed on the base paths. His current Spotrac market value places him at roughly $5.3m, which could be a little rich for the Mariners given their internal options currently - but IKF would serve as a solid bench piece for any contender, as he has shown this postseason with Toronto.

Probability of a 2B Free Agent Signing: 50%

Shortstop

Best Fit: Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Back-up Fit: Willi Castro

I won’t go back into depth in regards to IKF in this section, but as mentioned above, IKF’s positional flexibility gives the Mariners a major league ready option for backup shortstop, as well as second base and third base.

Admittedly, Castro is a bit of a cheat here, as he only started five games at shortstop this season, but given Spotrac is being kind enough to list him in that category, we’re going to count it.

Castro was a very popular trade target this past July for Mariners fans, but was quickly forgotten about following the surprise plane ride by one Eugenio Suárez, and the middle of the night Passan bomb that sent the Mariners twitter-sphere into a tizzy.

Castro was on pace for this third straight season of posting at least a 106 WRC+ until his trade to the the north side of Chicago seemed to sap him of any BABIP magic he may have had in his time in Minnesota.

Prior to the trade, Castro ran a 109 WRC+, with league average strikeout and walk rates and a .742. OPS. Castro also added a much needed defensive flexibility to any club that acquired him, as he started at least 5 games at six positions in 2025. However, upon arriving in Chicago, Castro went into a tailspin, posting a paltry 40 WRC+ with a sub .500 OPS in 110 PAs for the Cubs. Though he was on their postseason roster for the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds, Castro saw zero plate appearances and would’ve been benched in September if not for injuries providing him opportunities to play.

That said, Castro is still only 28, and could be a potential buy low candidate for the right time looking for a utility type player to fill out their roster. This author personally disagrees with Spotrac’s projected $10.9m market value considering his second half tank job, but Castro could be the type of player a contender brings in on a one year prove it deal that could wind up being a difference maker when it matters most.

Probability of a SS Free Agent Signing: 5%

Third Base

Best Fit: Eugenio Suárez

Back-up Fit: Miguel Andujar

I’ll preface the third base discussion with the same insight I will offer for the outfield position as well - Alex Bregman is absolutely the best overall fit for the Mariners at 3B for the 2026 season and beyond - but the Mariners have proven over the past decade that their protocol of roster construction does not revolve around long term free agent contracts, especially when considering a player who will turn 32 right after opening day. This author obviously does not agree with this line of thinking, however, the purpose of this write-up is to focus on realistic best fits, and not moves I would make on MLB The Show.

With that said, Eugenio Suárez, for me, is still likely the best fit for the Seattle Mariners for 2026 - but the tricky aspect here is I’m not sure the Seattle Mariners are the best fit for Eugenio Suárez.

Clearly the love affair between the city and Geno runs deep, especially with the monumental moments he gave the fan base during the playoff run this season - but objectively put, Geno was a below average 3B in his 220 PAs with the Mariners, with slumps that reached into the depths of some portions of the fan base pining for the return of Ben Williamson.

Geno still remains the best fit for me, primarily due to the likelihood of his market potentially maxing out at 2 guaranteed years. With Geno turning 35 in July, and his rough ending to the 2025 campaign, it leads one to wonder if other franchises will look at Geno’s incredible first half pace of being more a subject of his environment in Arizona, and less about what he can still provide for a contending team.

To be clear, I think there are several scenarios that would have to occur before the Mariners look to bring back Geno on a short term deal, but given the internal replacement options, as well as the steep jump from Geno to Bregman in terms of years and AAV, it feels like Geno does fit the Mariners best if the hot corner strategy for the front office is going the free agent route.

If Geno is out of the Mariners price range, a long-thought-about trade target in Miguel Andujar would make sense for the organization if they are looking for a short term solution.

Turning 31 next season, Andujar has seen a bit of a career renaissance since leaving New York in 2022. Over the last three seasons, Andujar has carried a .762 OPS and a 113 WRC+ in 750 PAs. A true contact hitter, Andujar rarely walks or strikes out, and is more of a doubles type hitter than being a true slugger.

Andujar does offer positional flexibility, where he played almost an even split of playing time between the infield (1B/3B) and outfield (LF/RF), but flexibility doesn’t necessarily mean quality. Andujar’s defensive metrics have declined pretty steeply over the last two years, after being a roughly average defender for the majority of his career. Spotrac currently slots Andujar at roughly $6m in market value, and would provide the Mariners a little bit of insurance at 1B if need be.

Probability of a 3B Free Agent Signing: 30%

Outfield

Best Fit: Rob Refsnyder

Back-up Fit: Mike Yastrzemski

I’ll preface the outfield discussion with the same insight I offered above - Kyle Tucker is absolutely the best overall fit for the Mariners in RF for the 2026 season and beyond - but, again, ***waves wildly in the direction of ownership*** - there is just no feasible way for me to include Kyle Tucker in any discussions around “best fit” for the Seattle Mariners.

Prove me wrong, John. I double dog dare you.

In the more realistic category of potential fits for the 2026 Seattle Mariners, Rob Refsnyder fits a need that the Mariners likely did not believe was an issue going into 2025, and very well may still not believe is an issue based on the front office’s positioning of Victor Robles and Dominic Canzone.

The Mariners were dreadful against LHP pitching from the RF spot in 2025, to the tune of a 72 WRC+ and .580 OPS, both of which ranked in the bottom third in the majors, while they also ranking in the bottom half of offensive production from the position in general, with a 93 WRC+ and a .665 OPS

Refsnyder, on the other hand, was 4th in the majors in OPS and WRC+ against LHP, ranking only behind Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Jackson Chourio with a minimum of 130 PAs. Already 34 years old, Refsnyder won’t require any type of long term deal, and given his role as a part time player, likely won’t require a large financial investment either. Spotrac currently has Refsnyder at a $4.4m market value, and would provide a financially accessible upgrade on both Victor Robles, and the LHP DH role, which should be open with the likely departure of Mitch Garver.

Mike Yastrzemski also fits the Mariners needs, especially if the organization looks to potentially utilize Dominic Canzone or Luke Raley as trade bait to fill other needs for the roster. Already 35, Yaz falls in the same category of Refsnyder where multiple years and a larger AAV are likely not in his future this off-season, but his production, particularly against RHP has been the definition of consistent for the entirety of his career.

Yaz has only posted one season with a sub 100 WRC+, while providing slightly below league average defense in right field. At this point in his career, there would be no reason for Yaz to ever see a left handed pitcher, but you’d safely be able to slot him in for 450 PAs a year, pending his athletic cliff doesn’t magically appear in his age 35 season.

Yaz’s market value from Spotrac is a little on the high end for the Mariners at $11.3m, especially at his age, but his fit in Seattle is relatively clean on a one year deal to help bridge the gap to eventual options like Lazaro Montes and Jonny Farmelo.

Probability of an OF Free Agent Signing: 10%

Designated Hitter

Best Fit: Jorge Polanco

Back-up Fit: Ryan O’Hearn

Again - we preface with the obvious. Kyle Schwarber would be the best fit for the Mariners in 2026 and beyond.

And again - we state the obvious, that this organization likely has zero interest in giving a 4-5 year deal, with a likely AAV north of $30m, to a 32 year old designated hitter.

Prove me wrong, John. I double dog dare you.

That said, we have already discussed Polanco’s fit with the Mariners for 2026, and despite him being listed at 2B earlier in this write-up, you can expect that his role may also include a significant portion of his ABs at DH, considering the Mariners internal options for a better defensive fit at 2B.

Ryan O’Hearn falls similarly into the Mike Yastrzemski category of being a consistent producer, particularly against RHP, but comes in three years the junior to Yaz.

O’Hearn’s career took a turn for the better in upon being acquired by the Baltimore Orioles in 2023. Since then, O’Hearn has posted a 121 WRC+, with a .788 OPS while splitting his time primarily between 1B, DH and occasionally in RF. Prior to the Mariners acquiring Josh Naylor this deadline, O’Hearn was often considered a sensible fit for the Mariners, especially in 2025 with the lack of production from the 1B, DH and RF positions prior to the trade deadline.

Similar to Yaz, O’Hearn has an estimated market value of $11.4m per Spotrac, but unlike Yaz, O’Hearn will likely be in the market for a multi year deal, which is something this regime has only handed out once in free agency to a positional player, with less than desirable results.

An argument can be made that O’Hearn might actually be a better overall fit for the Mariners if we’re discussing DH only, however his multi year projection makes it a little bit of an odd fit for a front office that has been reluctant to hand out multiyear contracts in past.

Probability of a DH Free Agent Signing: 50%

Relievers

Best Fit: Danny Coulombe

Back-up Fit: Jalen Beeks

I won’t dive too thoroughly into relief pitching fits, as frankly the scope of who’s available in free agency, especially for an org that seemingly decided years ago that spending money on relievers was bad (they aren’t totally wrong here) - but you’ll notice that both fits mentioned here both fill a role that the Mariners had hoped Caleb Ferguson would down the stretch.

Both Coulombe and Beeks would fit nicely into the second left handed pitcher role for the Mariners, a role that feels increasingly more necessary given Gabe Speier’s jump from RHH Death Merchant to legit high leverage reliever regardless of split in 2025.

Coulombe has been one of the better left handed relievers in baseball since 2022, and truly took his performance to another level with Minnesota this season, where he only allowed four runs in 31.1 IP prior to being traded to the Rangers at the deadline. However, following said trade, Coulombe struggled with his command, and posted an unsightly 6.64 FIP in only 12 innings for the Rangers.

At 36, the Mariners could potentially look to take a low cost flier on Coulombe with the idea that his performance in Texas is something that they view more as an outlier, but given his age, his jump in walk rate and his healthily below league average BABIP, the Mariners may look to utilize his projected $4.3m market value money elsewhere.

If the Mariners are looking for a LHP reliever who’s dollar value is likely to be a little bit lower than Coulombe’s - Jalen Beeks could their answers. Beeks is far removed from his peak K/9 days in Tampa Bay where he posted two seasons with a double digit K/9, but his fastball velocity has remained the same over the course of the past few seasons, and he is coming off the best full season of his career since 2022.

That said, Beeks’ ran an incredibly low .231 BABIP this year, while also continuing to see his K/9 stay pretty stagnant in the sevens. In a bullpen that desperately needs more swing and miss, Beeks may just be a repetitive fit to that of Tayler Saucedo, a pitcher I expect them to non-tender this off-season. The key here with Beeks is the financials would likely cost the same as Saucedo, and could be considered a marginal upgrade performance wise.

Probability of a RP Free Agent Signing: 60%

Starting Pitchers

Best Fit: Adrian Houser

Back-up Fit: Dustin May

Admittedly, an acquisition at starting pitcher feels fully contingent on what the Mariners front office decides to do with Luis Castillo this off-season. Personally, it would behoove the Mariners to acquire a starting pitcher regardless, especially coming off a year in which the organization spent multiple months missing a healthy portion of their rotation, while relying on Emerson Hancock and Logan Evans to cover more innings that most would’ve preferred.

If the Mariners move on from Castillo, and chose to not hand the fifth spot in the rotation to Emerson Hancock, Logan Evans or Jurrangelo Cijntje (they should not do any of these things) - they will likely look to fill the backend of their rotation with a short term deal as a bridge to the above mentioned Cijntje, Kade Anderson and inevitably (2027 or later) Ryan Sloan.

Both Houser and May fit in this sense as pitchers who will likely command a 1 year deal with a potential second year player option. Houser may not have the most impressive strikeout stuff, but over 11 starts with the White Sox this season, Houser only allowed home runs on 4.6% of his fly balls, while running a sparkling 2.10 ERA, with a marginally worse 3.34 FIP. It’s tough to judge Houser’s results after being traded to Tampa Bay at the deadline, especially given the environment he was asked to pitch his home games in. His ERA in Tampa more than doubled from his time in Chicago, however his FIP tells a slightly better story, which helps back the narrative that no pitcher should be asked to pitch in that ballpark. Houser’s Spotrac market value projection being at roughly $10.3m might sound steep at first, but given a subsequent Castillo trade would free up a potential $21.6m, the Mariners could view Houser as a suitable replacement with the ability to allocate their funds to other parts of the roster.

Dustin May might be a bit more of a gamble than Houser despite his prospect pedigree and age, but any organization looking to bring in May will likely do so on the idea that they can rediscover the pre-injury version of May who appeared destined to be a staple in Dodgers rotation.

May had a rough 2025, both in Los Angeles and in Boston, in which he ran the second highest BB% and HR/FB% in a full season in his career. The Mariners could view May as a beneficiary of the TMobile affect on fly balls, but would also need to see something they feel they can clean up in regards to his control. Outside of that, May’s fastball velocity has just not returned post injury, and in 2025 ran an average velocity that was nearly 3 mph slower than his averages prior to injuries derailing his career.

May’s Spotrac evaluation comes in much lower than Houser’s at roughly $3.3m, and could even likely be under consideration for the Mariners regardless of whether or not they trade Castillo this off-season. May has the pedigree and past results that teams will certainly take a chance on, but his success moving forward will be completely contingent on an organization being able to fix what was broken in his first season post injury.

Probability of a SP Free Agent Signing: 30%

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