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Coming into the 2026 season, the Seattle Mariners clearly felt that they had roughly 70% of right field and designated hitter covered, and admittedly, I was mostly fine with that line of thinking, given the organizational needs elsewhere.

Dominic Canzone had just come off a breakout season in which he posted career bests in almost every offensive category, and was likely written in pen as the Mariners Opening Day designated hitter barring a surprise trade.

Luke Raley, who was coming off of an injury plagued 2025 season, was probably more pencil than pen in terms of security for his spot on the Opening Day roster, but certainly served as an adequate at worst option for the lion’s share of work in right field, especially given his 129 WRC+ over 900 plus plate appearances across the 2023 and 2024 seasons.

With Canzone and Raley, the Mariners had roughly 900-1,000 of the 1,400 PAs needed to cover those two positions for the 2026 season spoken for. For the other 400-500 PAs, most fans likely expected a mixture of Victor Robles, as well as DH days for players like Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh and Randy Arozarena. Realistically, the Mariners had other concerns (1B, 2B, 3B, bullpen) that took precedent - and the idea of an outside acquisition seemed unlikely considering the already lengthy list of needs, as well as the potential to cover those right handed PAs internally.

Then, to the surprise of most, the Mariners announced the signing of right handed outfielder Rob Refsnyder to a 1 year, $6.25m contract. The move at the time was generally celebrated, given Refsnyder’s reputation as a clubhouse leader, as well as his ability to do the thing the Mariners needed the most - mash left handed pitching:

The Mariners were dreadful against LHP pitching from the RF spot in 2025, to the tune of a 72 WRC+ and .580 OPS, both of which ranked in the bottom third in the majors, while they also ranking in the bottom half of offensive production from the position in general, with a 93 WRC+ and a .665 OPS

Refsnyder, on the other hand, was 4th in the majors in OPS and WRC+ against LHP, ranking only behind Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and Jackson Chourio with a minimum of 130 PAs. Already 34 years old, Refsnyder won’t require any type of long term deal, and given his role as a part time player, likely won’t require a large financial investment either. Spotrac currently has Refsnyder at a $4.4m market value, and would provide a financially accessible upgrade on both Victor Robles, and the LHP DH role, which should be open with the likely departure of Mitch Garver.

Now - I would be lying if I said this move was a universally beloved one by the Mariners fan base. Memories of past platoon failures have left Mariners fans rightfully scorned, and at 34, Refsnyder was by no means a spring chicken. But given Refsnyder had the 6th highest OPS, and 5th highest WRC+ of ANY player against left handed pitching over the previous THREE years, this signing had to be the one that worked, right? RIGHT?!

WELP…

Now if you were just looking at the numbers on paper, you could potentially look towards Refsnyder’s BABIP and say that there has maybe been a level of unluckiness - but the underlying metrics don’t necessarily tell the same story:

Simply put, Refsnyder’s BABIP is more correlated to his significant drop off in both barrel and hard hit percentages than it is to being unlucky. Additionally, Refsnyder’s lack of production really can’t be attributed to a new found inability to make contact, given his swing and miss measurables (Chase, K and Whiff %) are all relatively unchanged. Refsnyder seeing this level of decline without it being influenced by an increase in swing and miss is certainly a concern, and even more so when you consider his age.

So with that said, what do the Mariners do now? If the Mariners plan is to continue with Refsnyder on the roster, there are a few avenues the organization could go.

Victor Robles should be available to the main roster sooner rather than later as he is already 8 games in to a rehab assignment in Tacoma. That said, Robles is currently running a 32.4% K rate with a .154/.324/.192 line over 34 PAs on his rehab, and has only had 81 PAs at the major league level over the last 12 months.

The organization could increase Connor Joe’s playing time, as Joe has produced a .707 OPS and a 105 WRC+ over 30 PAs. However, Joe’s spot on the roster could be in question once Victor Robles’ rehab assignment comes to an end, especially with Joe still having an option available for the Mariners to use. I know a healthy portion of folks would argue that Leo Rivas should be sent down instead of Joe given his meager offensive output, but sending down Rivas would leave the Mariners with no backup infield options on the 26 man roster, and would give the Mariners a bench of Garver/Pereda, Joe, Robles and Refsnyder.

The Mariners could also turn to players who are performing well in Tacoma, specifically Brennen Davis, who through 147 PAs is sporting a .972 OPS and a 144 WRC+ in Tacoma, with a K rate that’s almost 8% lower than his career average. But calling up Davis would require the Mariners to add him to the 40 Man Roster. The Mariners do currently have a spot open with Logan Evans, Carlos Vargas and Miles Mastrobuoni all on the 60 Day IL - but that spot is only tentatively available with Mastrobuoni being eligible to return the last week of May. The Mariners would not have to make a move with the 40 man roster immediately, but upon Mastrobuoni’s return, would have to remove someone from the 40 man roster if they choose to add Davis now.

Realistically, the Mariners face several decisions over the next few weeks that could significantly shift the backend of the 26 man roster, all of which seem to center around the 400-500 above mentioned PAs the Mariners were tasked with covering this off-season, and can be summarized as such:

1. When Victor Robles’ rehab ends, he must be added to the 26 man roster, or released/traded

2. If the Mariners add Brennen Davis to the 40 man roster, another move will need to be made to remove someone if/when Miles Mastrobuoni is re-instated, which can be as early as the end of May

3. When/If Mastrobuoni is healthy, he must be added to the 26 man roster, or would need to be released or traded.

4. The Mariners can’t remove Leo Rivas from the roster without adding another infielder, as Rivas is the only backup infielder on the 26 man currently, and the only healthy RHH who can play multiple infield positions

With all of this in mind, this leads us to the title, The Rob Refsnyder Problem.

When the Mariners made a similar signing in AJ Pollock prior to the 2023 season, the organization gave Pollock 138 PAs over 49 games. In return, Pollock gave them a 52 WRC+ and was kept on the roster until he was traded at the deadline to the San Fransisco Giants. Refsnyder is almost half way there in terms of playing time, while some how providing even less production than Pollock did.

If Rob Refsnyder continues to struggle at the plate as he has, and does so without an injury related cause that could provide the Mariners the ability to put him on the IL, the organization will sooner rather than later need to make a decision on Refsnyder as a Seattle Mariner.

Now, this is certainly not saying that the Mariners have a clearly better solution available to them. As discussed above, Brennen Davis is currently lighting up Tacoma, but he is an injury prone, unproven commodity who has yet to make his major league debut. Victor Robles has yet to find traction in his rehab stint, and is now 18 months removed from the three month stretch that resurrected his career, not to mention that his career 101 WRC+ against LHP doesn’t necessarily scream ideal weak side platoon candidate. Connor Joe has performed well enough to this date, but how much can you rely on him to continue to produce at 33? Is the organization willing to give Joe guaranteed ABs against LHP until July?

They all might not be perfect, but despite Robles, Davis and Joe’s warts, they might be better solutions to the current version of Refsnyder at this point in time - the question is, how long will the Mariners give Refsnyder the chance to prove he can still do it?

With a middling American League, the organization could feel like they have the time to allow Refsnyder the ability to figure it out, but given the dramatic decline in his quality of contact, his age and his inability to impact the game in alternative ways, it feels foolish to hope or expect for things to change for the better.

Here’s hoping we don’t need to wait until July to know the answer.

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• The Mariners at the quarter way mark

• Andrés Muñoz

• Julio’s Defense

• What roster moves we’d make before the Chicago series

• Your questions you asked on social media

You can now listen to this on both Spotify and on Apple Podcasts, and can now watch some of my episodes on the Words from the Wharf YouTube page.

Enjoy!

When looking for the bright spots in what has so far been an up and down start to the 2026 season for the Seattle Mariners, the continued growth and development of Cole Young stands out as one of the brightest.

As I discussed on my initial podcast back in February, Cole Young’s physical appearance was one of the things that stood out to me the most during my time in Peoria. Ryan Rowland-Smith recently discussed the same, while also echoing the sentiment that Young came into the season in much better shape than he was in 2025:

He’s in way better shape than last year. People don’t talk about that,” Rowland-Smith said. “… Everything he did in the winter was based around, I need to be overmatched. When I set up a (pitching) machine, I’m going to set it up belt high, as fast as this machine can go. I’m going to use these softballs that Driveline makes… and they rise on you. And that was his whole emphasis.

Young’s approach during the off-season, as well as the rumored adjustments to his diet, have already shown dividends through the first 31 games of the season. Young currently ranks in the top 10 in both WRC+ and fWAR amongst second basemen, and has also seen significant growth defensively, specifically on balls he’s needed to charge, as well as his lateral movement towards the second base bag:

Overall, Young has seen significant, and in some instances comical (shoutout bWAR) growth since 2025:

Now to be clear, I am not of the mindset that Cole Young is a nine win player (that distinction belongs to Brendan Donovan IYKYK) - but a still 22 year old second baseman pacing towards a four win season is certainly someone the Seattle Mariners would likely look at as an extension candidate - but what would that extension look like?

Player Comparisons

To start, I filtered by players since 2000 who have had at least 350 PAs in their age 21-22 year old seasons as our initial list. From that list, there are the expected suspects leading the way in terms of production (Gleyber Torres, B.J Upton, Ozzie Albies, Robinson Canó), but there were also players like Brandon Phillips and José Ramirez who struggled mightily in their debuts who were pulled into the filter. In total, there were 26 players who fit this criteria, with the below being the best comparisons:

At first glance, this is certainly a list of players who you know/remember! Hilariously enough, there are four current or past Mariners on this list, with the best of the bunch being a part of one of the worst trades in Mariners history.

From this group, Nick Franklin was the only player who really busted, finishing with a career .214/.285/.359 line before his major league career ended in 2018. Franklin peaked as the 52nd overall prospect on MLB Pipeline the year prior to his debut, and had a good debut season at the age of 22, but was never able to build on the power/defense profile he displayed as a rookie.

Colt Keith was the only player who signed a pre-arb extension from the group, a 6 year, $28.64m contract with three club options - $10m, $13m, $15m - each of which come with buyouts ranging from $1m to $2.64m.

At the time of his extension, Keith had yet to debut for Detroit, and had posted a .300/.382/.512 line over 1,063 PAs in the minors. In comparison, Cole Young had posted a .279/.388/.432 line over 1,473 PAs prior to his debut.

Luis Rengifio never signed an extension, but through arbitration and his free agent deal he signed this off-season, Rengifio has made roughly $25.8m through the age of 29.

Jackson Holliday is easily the most high profile name of the group, and was the top overall prospect in baseball on MLB Pipeline in 2024. Holliday showed significant growth from 2024 to 2025, and was poised for a breakout season in 2026, but a fractured hamate in spring training has slowed his debut for this season.

Financially, and in terms of overall success, Asdrúbal Cabrera had the best overall result of the group (so far). Cabrera amassed 28.3 fWAR while finishing with a .266/.329/.423 line over 7,401 PAs spanning a 15 year career. Cabrera’s career finished at the age of 35, and by the time he had retired, he had earned over $64m, mostly coming in one and two year deals after his time in Cleveland came to an end.

Contract Comps

Kristian Campbell

Contract: 8 years, $60m - Club Options in 2033 ($19m) and 2034 ($21m)

MLB Stats Time of Signing: 24 PAs, .400/.500/.750

Colt Keith

Contract: 6 years, $28.6m - Club Options in 2030 ($10m), 2031 ($13m) and 2032 ($15m)

MLB Stats Time of Signing: None

Ozzie Albies

Contract: 7 years, $35m - Club Options in 2026 ($7m) and 2027 ($7m)

MLB Stats Time of Signing: 982 PAs, .271/.321/.453, 103 WRC+, 6.8 fWAR

Rougned Odor

Contract: 6 years, $49.5m

MLB Stats Time of Signing: 1,519 PAs, .265/.302/.464, 101 WRC+, 6.4 fWAR

Jedd Gyorko

Contract: 5 years, $35m - Club Option in 2020 ($13m)

MLB Stats Time of Signing: 577 PAs, .241/.295/.430, 104 WRC+, 2.4 fWAR

Kolten Wong

Contract: 5 years, $25.5m - Club Option in 2021 ($12.5m)

MLB Stats Time of Signing: 1,108 PAs, .250/.303/.374, 88 WRC+, 4.0 fWAR

Scott Kingery

Contract: 6 years, $24m - Club Options for 2024 ($13m), 2025 ($14m) and 2026 ($15m)

MLB Stats Time of Signing: None

Average Guaranteed Contract: 6 year, $36.8m

Though I didn’t list him above, I do think it’s also important to reference Colt Emerson as well. The Mariners signed Colt to an 8 year, $95m contract earlier this season, which at the time, made him the highest paid player in Major League history who had yet to make his debut.

Colt is a clear cut above Cole in terms of prospect pedigree, as well as projected future value from most prospect rank sheets, but I do think it’s valuable to look at his contract through the arbitration years as a good barometer for where the Mariners could hypothetically land in discussions with Cole:

Colt’s total money earned through his pre-arb and arbitration years lands at 6 years, $59m, with the remaining money coming in the form of two additional guaranteed years at $18m AAV, with a club option in 2034 at $25m. I do not think that the money the Mariners are paying to Colt through pre-arbitration is a number they would look to offer Cole, primarily due Colt’s age, premium position and his better overall projection moving forward - but I could see the Mariners looking to offer something that lands around the average of the contracts above, and what they are paying Colt.

Extension Offer

Now, I can understand that the upcoming CBA negotiations, as well as the potential impact it could have on player control, could influence both the Mariners and Cole’s willingness to do a deal - but the point of this exercise was gathering enough comparisons, both statistically and contractually, to give a healthy projection of where I would land if I were in the front office’s shoes:

Contract Offer - 5 years, $31m with multiple club options

2026: $3m

2027: $4m

2028: $6m

2029: $8m

2030: $10m

Club Options: 2031 ($12m), 2032 ($13m), 2033 ($14m) - $2m buyouts on each year.

Total Potential Contract: 8 years, $70m

This contract essentially comes in as a beefier version of the Colt Keith deal, which gives both the Mariners, and Cole Young stability over the next five to eight seasons.

For Cole, $31m is very likely more than he will make through his pre-arbitration and arbitration process - but comes at the expense that he’s essentially working on rolling one year deals for the Mariners starting in his age 27 season.

Could Young get paid more than the 3/39m he could receive in club options once he hits the open market? Maybe - but in order to do that, Young would likely have to tap in to the power side of his game a little bit more, and turn more into an Asdrúbal Cabrera type offensive profile, while also maintaining a well above average defensive profile. Then again, there’s also the scenario that Cole Young does hit his 100th percentile outcome and still becomes a free agent at the age of 30 after already making $70m for his career, which in itself, is not a bad consolation prize.

For the Mariners, the benefits lie in locking up every position on the dirt with the exception of third base through at least 2030.

Even in the scenario where Young’s growth stunts, or objectively fails, the Mariners are looking at a slightly more expensive commitment than what tthey gave Evan White in 2019 - a contract they were able to trade, and would have no detrimental impact to your overall payroll.

Again - the uncertainty of the CBA and the future of the arbitration process certainly makes this a tricky conversation for both parties, but if Cole’s development continues through the 2026 season, I’m sure at least one of the parties will be open to having the discussions.

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You can now listen to this on both Spotify and on Apple Podcasts, and can now watch some of my episodes on the Words from the Wharf YouTube page.

Enjoy!

You can now listen to this on both Spotify and on Apple Podcasts, and can now watch some of my episodes on the Words from the Wharf YouTube page.

Enjoy!

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We also talk about the Astros series, and whether or not the Mariners offense is truly back, or if it’s time for an obituary for Houston.

You can now listen to this on both Spotify and on Apple Podcasts, and can now watch some of my episodes on the Words from the Wharf YouTube page.

Enjoy!

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We also talk about the early results the Mariners have had with the ABS System, and where they rank across the rest of baseball.

You can now listen to this on both Spotify and on Apple Podcasts, and can now officially watch this on the Words from the Wharf YouTube page.

Enjoy!

• Colt Emerson’s Extension

• Logan Gilbert’s Long Term Outlook

• How the Mariners Look So Far

• And more!

You can now listen to this on both Spotify and on Apple Podcasts, and can now officially watch this on the Words from the Wharf YouTube page.

Enjoy!

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Jerry Dipoto, as he often does, perked a lot of ears a few weeks ago when he appeared on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM and spoke on the idea of the Mariners extending any number of their younger players as seen in the quote below:

Despite the convoluted word salad above, we now know who one of those players was, and that foreseeable future Dipoto alluded to, just so happened to be today.

Now there is a lot to unpack here - so I’m going to try and go through it as cleanly as possible.

The Financial Impact - Internally and Externally

The Mariners just gave out the largest guaranteed contract for any player who has yet to make his debut by completing this extension. On paper, this is very aggressive for a player who is considered a very good prospect, but would not be mistaken for being on the same prospect scale as, let’s say, Konnor Griffin or Jesús Made and to a lesser extent, Kevin McGonigle or future division rival Leo De Vries. In fact, Fangraphs has Emerson just outside of their top 10 at a 55 Future Value grade - a half grade, to grade and a half behind the above mentioned quartet.

This is not to say that paying this sum to Emerson right now is an overpay, but it certainly is a gamble, and likely puts the Brewers, Tigers, Pirates and Athletics in a much more uncomfortable situation surrounding their blue chip shortstop prospects, especially given some of the above organizations’… ahem… financial decision making.

For the Mariners, paying this sum doesn’t need to be a deterrent if things go poorly. At $11.875m AAV, Emerson’s number is by no means preventative for future deal making, that is, as long as the Mariners continue to operate as they have recently - and more importantly, if Emerson does reach his escalators to get him to the $130m threshold Murray refers to in his tweet, the contract quickly becomes a bargain.

Comparisons

Now, given the extension is the largest for a player without a debut, there really isn’t a specific scenario we can compare Colt to, however, there is a current Mariner who signed a similar deal at a different stage in his career that can allow us to draw some parallels.

In 2022, the Mariners signed 27 year old JP Crawford to a 5 year, $51m extension, which runs up at the end of this season. That contract’s AAV ($10.2m) falls just shy of the Emerson number ($11.875m), but does at least allow fans to try and set reasonable expectations for what Colt can do to make the Mariners investment worth it.

In his time with the Mariners following the extension, Crawford has amassed 11.6 fWAR, with a .247/.347/.370 split and a 113 WRC+. Crawford’s defense has diminished substantially over that timeframe, but this can be somewhat expected as the contract ran his 27-31 year old seasons.

Colt Emerson’s extension runs out at his age 28 season (29 if the Mariners pick up the team option), which means the Mariners will be getting Emerson for the peak of his athletic prime. Defensively, Emerson has shined recently, and questions about him sticking at short have all but disappeared as his debut has approached.

To frame this, if you believe J.P Crawford has been worth his contract for the Mariners over the past four seasons, then the parallel would be to hope that Colt Emerson can produce at a similar level. Defensively, Colt is already the superior to Crawford by a sizable gap, which leaves you asking for Colt to be roughly 10-15% above league average with the bat to make the contract well worth it.

To tie a bow on this, as well as the section above, it is good to remember that the Crawford contract did not prohibit the Mariners from extending, signing or acquiring players like Julio Rodriguez, Luis Castillo, Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena and Josh Naylor - so Colt’s extension should be viewed similarly through a payroll perspective.

Timing

Most would assume that this financial commitment to Colt Emerson would likely indicate that his debut would be imminent, especially now that the Mariners have forfeited their ability to gain an extra first round pick in the event Colt wins Rookie of the Year - but that appears to not be the case:

Now, the Mariners could be saying this but meaning otherwise, but given the current landscape of the roster as is - it does feel like there is real merit to this.

When J.P Crawford returns to the lineup for the Mariners, and does so at shortstop as the Mariners have continued to state, the opportunities for everyday playing time could be few and far between for Emerson. With Crawford’s return, the likely lineup would include Brendan Donovan at 3B, Crawford at SS and Cole Young at 2B against RHP - three players who at this point should and will play every day.

You could argue that Donovan could see more time in RF allowing Emerson to slide into 3B where he spent a healthy amount of time this spring, however, both Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone have shown early that both belong in the lineup regularly against RHP as well. By playing both, this also eliminates the idea of putting Randy Arozarena at DH to allow for Donovan to shift to LF, once again allowing Emerson into 3B.

You got all of that? Good.

This also doesn’t include Leo Rivas, who offers positional flexibility, switch hitting, and an above average approach at the plate, or future IL returnee Miles Mastrobuoni who will need to be on the 26 man roster, or be subject to waivers. Realistically, there is a lot of traffic both on the roster, and on the injury list, which makes Emerson a bit of a tricky fit at the current moment.

That said, baseball does have a way of working it’s way out eventually, and there are a lot of ways you could organize the roster to fit Colt Emerson. One of the biggest issues for the Mariners towards the end of last year was the clear burnout from players like JP, Julio, Randy and Cal, all of whom played over 157 games before reaching the postseason. Add in that Brendan Donovan does have a history of missing games, and you can start to see an avenue where elevating Colt to the main roster does make sense.

If the Mariners want their roster to be as fresh as can be going into October, they will need to start getting more days off for their regulars - and the best way to do that, is by having a bench with players you feel comfortable starting multiple times a week. A bench of Emerson, Raley/Robles/ Canzone/Refsnyder and Garver gives you that.

Realistically, Colt Emerson will likely let the Mariners know when he is ready. Colt had a good spring, but certainly was not at the same level of 2022 Julio Rodriguez who all but forced the Mariners to put him on the Opening Day roster. Colt has less than 10 games played at AAA, and won’t be 21 until July - more time in AAA is not the worst thing for Emerson, and again, there’s always the injury scenario at some point which will make room for Emerson regardless.

Final Thoughts

Overall, today is a very exciting day for the Mariners, Colt Emerson and should be for the fan base as well. There is likely some sticker shock for folks, especially given the record setting number Colt received, but it is crystal clear the confidence the organization has in Emerson, which was made even more evident with the announcement that Emerson’s contract came with a no-trade clause as well.

For me, this is another sign that the Mariners organization is willing to invest in the people they feel are the right fit for the long term, and the contract itself in no way should prohibit them from having these same discussions, and hopefully results, with players like Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Brendan Donovan etc.

Colt is here to stay. All Hail Colt.

Go M’s.

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In the past four days, we, the collective Mariners fanbase, have already experienced the time honored traditions of:

• Questioning bullpen decisions

• Leaving runners in scoring position

• Lineup Construction

• Online pissing matches

That’s right, Mariners baseball is back, baby. The four months of cold, dark Marinerless days have quickly been replaced by the roaring fires of frustration, memes and questioning why I choose to subject myself to this 162 times a year - and despite having a now average bedtime of 1:30am EST, I truly could not be happier.

This season, I will plan on doing quick weekly recaps on Mondays, where I will review the best and worst from the previous week. I will also provide a glimpse of what’s coming up, both for the Mariners, and myself in the week ahead.

Let’s get to it.

Hitter of the Week: Brendan Donovan

18 PAs, 2 HR, 4 R, 4 RBI, 4 SB — .429/.556/.929 — 304 WRC+

To be honest, this could have easily gone to either Dominic Canzone (1.000 SLG) or Luke Raley (tres dingerinos) as well - but given this was Donovan’s debut in a Mariners uniform, we decided to go with the nine win player himself.

Donovan made about as impactful of a debut as possible, homering on the fifth pitch he saw, becoming the first ever Mariner to lead-off a season with a home run in the organization’s 50 year history.

Perhaps equally as important, Donovan provided positive results against left handed pitching, going 2-4 with a pair of singles over the weekend. The Mariners likely tipped their hand early with how they will use Brendan Donovan against LHP, as Donovan was batting sixth on Saturday against left handed starter Joey Cantillo.

Donovan is coming off a 2025 season in which he posted a .614 OPS (75 WRC+) against left handed pitching in 169 PAs, but despite this, Donovan still posted a .775 OPS (119 WRC+) overall. Any type of improvement from Donovan against LHP would be a welcome addition, especially if it means Donovan’s plate approach can stay at the top of the Mariners line-up permanently.

Pitcher of the Week: Emerson Hancock (!?!?)

6 IP, 9 Ks, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 0 H

Talk about a complete 180 result for Emerson Hancock compared to his last season debut.

In last season’s debut, Hancock never made it out of the first inning, allowing 7 hits and 6 runs while recording zero strikeouts to a relatively unimpressive Detroit Tigers offense.

In this season’s debut? Hancock never let Cleveland get out of first gear, throwing six shutout innings with 9 strikeouts, while featuring an absolutely devastating sweeper that led to more than one audible gasp from the NBC Broadcast booth, which you can hear starting at the 1:10 mark:

There is really no other way to put it, Emerson Hancock was untouchable last night, as evident by his 12.5% HardHit rate and most noticeably, his 42.9% whiff rate against his sweeper.

Though Hancock will still likely be replaced by Bryce Miller upon his return from the IL, Hancock will almost certainly see his stuff play up as a multi-inning reliever when that day comes. Thought Hancock was dominant for the six innings he pitched, he noticeably saw dips in his sitting velocity after the first two innings, but still had enough in the tank to touch 94-95 when he needed to as his start went along.

Last night showed a lot of Mariners fans what the organization had reportedly been seeing through camp from Hancock, and likely has calmed the minds of some for Hancock to cover starts through the year as need be.

If the sweeper continues to be the swing and miss pitch it was on Sunday night, Hancock has the makings of a serviceable backend starter, or potentially that of a very effective multi-inning leverage reliever.

C.H.O.N.E of the Week: Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh and Josh Naylor

Combined: 54 PAs, 3 Hs, 1 XBH, 2 R, 2 RBI, 19 K, 9 BB

Listen, normally we will only identify one hitter a week when discussing C.H.O.N.E (Can’t Hit Or Nurture Effectively), but given the collective long wet fart that Julio, Cal and Naylor produced through the four game series, exceptions were made.

Simply put, the Mariners 2-3-4 hitters, were, well…

Thanks for that, Mr. Ralphio.

The fact that the Mariners went 2-2 against Cleveland despite the middle of the order doing just about everything they could from preventing it is truly a testament to how deep the lineup has the potential of being if/when it all clicks at once.

Now, this is baseball, and the lineup as a whole very likely will not all click at once for more than a handful of series throughout the year, but past iterations of the Seattle Mariners would’ve been looking 0-4 in the face if they had gotten that type of result from the heart of the order.

If we’re looking for silver linings, it’s that the middle of the order might not have another series all year where they collectively look THIS bad - but if we are looking at the normal, dark, ‘same ole Mariners’ side of things, I suppose we could be concerned that Cal struck out at a 55% clip over the weekend, with his only extra base hit coming from a 246 ft ground rule double.

Noodle of the Week: Eduard Bazardo

1.2 IP, 9 batters faced, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 ER, 1 H

Admittedly, we’re running with Noodle of the Week as the name for the least effective pitching performance of the week because, well, I can’t think of anything else. If you can think of an acronym you’d like to see here, please respond in the comments!

For the most part, the Mariners pitching held it together pretty well over the weekend (though how they may have been deployed is a different topic). An argument can be made for Andrés Muñoz, given the results of the 10th inning on Saturday, but given Brendan Donovan’s throw to first, and Chase DeLauter’s absurdity, I didn’t feel great putting much of that on Muñoz himself.

Eduard Bazardo on the other hand, walked three of the nine batters he faced, and generally did not look sharp in his two appearances. There are plenty of arguments to be made against how long Bazardo was left in on Saturday, and whether or not he should have been pulled for the batter he faced, but the results are unfortunately the results.

The starting rotation put the Mariners in position to win each game this weekend, and though not all of the blame can be placed on the bullpen (looking at you RISP), they were still a meaningful part of the problem. The bullpen will need to perform much better throughout this year if the Mariners plan to go where they are looking to.

What’s Ahead - Schedule and Probables

March 30th - April 1st - vs. Yankees

Monday: Luis Castillo vs. Ryan Weathers

Tuesday: Logan Gilbert vs. Max Fried

Wednesday: George Kirby vs. Cam Schlittler

Notes: Ryan Weathers was one of the bigger acquisitions for the Yankees this off-season, and features some of the best pure velocity the Mariners might see all season. The stuff is there to be great, but he has yet to fully put it together over a full season.

This is not the best matchup for the Mariners in general, given Aaron Judge’s history of rampaging, as well as the back to back lefty starter to open the series, but it’s a good test to see how the Mariners stack up early against two starters (Fried and Schlittler) they would likely see in a potential postseason matchup.

April 3rd - April 5th - at Angels

Friday: Woo vs. Detmers

Saturday: Hancock vs. Kochanowicz

Sunday: Castillo vs. Johnson

Notes: It’s the Angels. This series is going to suck, Mike Trout is going to be a pain in the ass, and some how Jo Adell will hit multiple dingers. Just get the hell out of there healthy, and hopefully with a series win.

What’s Ahead - Wednesday’s Show

of Locked On Mariners and Control the Zone will swing by to talk about what he’s seen from the Mariners in the early parts of the season.

Go M’s.

Share Words from the Wharf

For the majority of the off-season, I couldn’t quite put my finger on why things felt different, and now as we have reached Opening Day, that feeling of different still lingers.

Normally, my experience of a Mariners off-season feels more like trying to assemble a 1,000 piece puzzle, constantly second guessing and tinkering, holding ideas and pieces off to the side while trying to figure out how the Mariners could make everything fit for the next year.

This normal often included more memes and mockery, more quotes to tear apart, more moments of foot meets mouth responded to with a mostly sardonic tone from the general fanbase. The off-season would traditionally fly by with the Mariners achieving only the bare minimum - a bare minimum that by the end of March leaves even the most optimistic prognosticators saying that this could be the year if four or five things break exactly the way they need to.

For the past two decades, the normal for Opening Day was more in line with Hope Springs Eternal. That regardless of past discretions and everything your eyes and head told you, your heart screamed that this was finally the year. You didn’t necessarily believe your heart’s bellows, but you certainly placed hope in them - and for seven months of 2025, a starved fanbase was finally rewarded for it.

Over the course of last season, that hope gradually developed into a belief that bigger things weren’t just possible, but probable. The free feeling of wishing for the best was over time replaced by the heavy feeling of previously unachievable goals now becoming reality; a feeling that would leave you breathless and white knuckled pitch after pitch, inning after inning, night over night, that can reward you with utter ecstasy when things go right, but will leave you broken in silence when things go wrong.

The deep water of the playoffs are not for the weak of heart. They are a labyrinth of emotion, a never-ending maze of anxiety and stress that can be almost impossible at times to enjoy in the moment, but will be sure to leave you with lasting memories (or scars) that will stay with you forever.

With these memories, October tends to leave another ‘gift’ that we carry with us through the cold winter months, which in this case, was responsible for this off-season feeling different, both in how I viewed it, and with what the Mariners accomplished.

The gift, was expectations, and with these expectations, comes a different view of Opening Day, a view where the collective fan base is no longer hoping for the best, but expecting it. These expectations are not only being bestowed upon the organization by their fans, but also by national pundits, writers and projectionists alike. They are damn near unanimously being labeled as the best team in the American League, and with those labels, comes a different perspective of watching the 162 game marathon of a season.

We as fans over the last two decades have often seen the Mariners as a living example of pathos, where the absurd and hilarious were not only matched, but often exceeded, by the inadequacy and pathetic in nature results of a franchise that might as well have built their stadium to be surrounded by a circle of lain down rakes. You entered each season with the hope for better, but expecting the comical worst - and for 20 years, the Mariners almost always emphatically delivered in spades.

Sure, the organization gave a peek of what life could be in the realm beyond competency in 2022, but that was all almost instantly forgotten over the next 12 months due to a mixture of good process, bad result, infamous press conferences, and some good ole fashioned bottom line baseball. The Same Ole Mariners were back like they never left, as to was the familiar feeling of hoping for the best, expecting the worst on Opening Day.

But 2026 isn’t your Same Ole Mariners - not after last year. Both fans and players alike are marching to the beat of a singular drum, the drum of expectation, one that can only be met if the organization goes somewhere it has never gone before. Anything short will likely be deemed a disappointment, or worse, and there is no going back.

It is fair, and expected, to have expectations - but in all of those expectations, we must remind ourselves to take time for the most important part of reaching the inevitable end - the journey.

We know where we want to go, and we know what it is going to take to get there, but focusing on the horizon at the expense of the here and now leaves you in a state of callous waiting, and ignores the present we should all choose to live in more.

Enjoy the Tuesday Nights in Oakland Sacramento.

Laugh at the TOOTBLANs.

Make memes out of screenshots.

Laugh, Yell, Mock, Cheer at the Mariners - they have, and always will, deserve the full spectrum of our human emotions.

But most importantly, don’t let your expectations come between you and the emotion the journey brings us; the highs, the lows and everything in between.

Live in the now.

There will be time for us to meet up with our expectations in October.

Go M’s.

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• Cole Young, Master of Dinger?

• Colt Emerson, Back to School?

• Randy and JP’s Walk Year

• Putting the 2026 Mariners in 2018

Don’t forget to follow and rate on both Apple and Spotify!

Enjoy!

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The 2026 Mariners / MLB Prediction Survey is officially live!

Responses will be accepted until noon EST, 9am PST on Thursday, March 26th - one response per person.

We had over 300 responses last year between Twitter and Bluesky, so let’s do our best to clear that number in 2026.

Show your knowledge of the Mariners, and the rest of the baseball world, and prove once and for all that you, yes you, are the ultimate knower of ball.

Make sure to click the button below to get started!

Do You Know Ball?

Also, we do a deeper dive on Yosver Zulueta’s camp and how I think he has earned his way on to the roster for opening day, as well as what could potentially keep him in Tacoma if the Mariners decide to go another route.

Don’t forget to follow and rate on both Apple and Spotify!

Enjoy!

Also, we touch on the Randy Arozarena and Cal Raleigh spat, and whether or not their is a concern on this lingering into the season.

Note: I say that Cal announced himself as captain of Team USA, which is obviously not true. This was meant as Cal announcing himself as a member of Team USA.

Thank you again to all of you who voted on this week’s show topic!

Don’t forget to follow and rate on both Apple and Spotify!

Enjoy!

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A quick warning, the first five minutes or so of the episode picked up every ounce of noise possible in the background, but the remainder of the recording should be fine.

Given this is my first recording with a guest, this was a bit of a learning experience on my end, so apologies in advance.

Enjoy!

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• Best and Worst Case Scenarios for 2026

• Knizner or Garver

• Are there no gripes with the organization currently?

• 2027 IF and LF Predictions

• Ryan Bliss Trade Value

• Adding another leverage arm

• Last 3 Spots in the Bullpen

• Kade Anderson’s Rotation Debut

Enjoy!

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I had stated at the end of previous year that I would be starting a podcast, but frankly I wasn’t really sure where to start. I knew what I wanted it to be, but admittedly there was a level of fear and nervousness with recording on my own, and not just being a guest on another show.

Being a guest and answering a question is one thing, but driving the show, building the structure of the conversation, understanding the concept of empty space amongst other things, were all foreign concepts to me. These are not necessarily skillsets you can teach yourself over night (as experienced in the two different versions of this that will never see the light of day).

With that said, I’m proud to finally record my own podcast, one that I hope will find its way into your rotation moving forward as I continue to gain my sea legs in this process.

On today’s show - I dive into:

• What we saw from Kade Anderson and Ryan Sloan

• The sheer comical size of Lazaro Montes

• Michael Arroyo’s surprise infield reps at third base

• Brendan Donovan, son of Gimli

• Cal Raleigh

• Vibes at Camp

Again - thank you so much for your support in both reading, and now listening to Words from the Wharf. Enjoy.

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Note: This is part 5 of a 5 part series reviewing the 2026 Seattle Mariners.

1. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 1: 2026 Mariners Roster As Is

2. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 2: Free Agent Fits per Position

3. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 3: Trade Targets per Position

4. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 4: The F.O Off-Season Plan

5. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 5: My Off-Season Plan

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Prologue

First off, I would like to thank all of you who have followed along for this off-season series. I am truly grateful for all of the new subscribers who have signed up over the last few weeks, and especially thankful for those who have shared this project with others.

Moving forward, my frequency of posting will likely slow down barring any impactful Mariners news, but I do want to take the time to recognize some of the other very talented folks who write on Substack that you should also considered subbing to:

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Nathan, Ben, Colin and Luke all offer very different writing and recording styles and perspectives, but all four of them are incredibly talented at what they do, and will certainly help any fan who is looking for Mariners coverage through the cold winter months. Please take the time to support their work - they all deserve it.

With that said, we have reached the end of the off-season series here at Words from the Wharf, and with that, I am proud to share with you my plan on how to build the 2026 Seattle Mariners.

Move 1: Sign Josh Naylor

Contract Details: 4 years, $88m - Opt out after 2nd Season, Club Option for 5th year at $20m with a $2m buyout

I will start by saying that I (amongst basically everyone in the Mariners fan base) have continued to bang the table for the Mariners to re-sign Josh Naylor.

There really isn’t much to discuss here in terms of how he performed, mostly because anyone with eyes could see the impact Naylor had on the Mariners club down the stretch, despite him clearly being hampered by a shoulder injury which caused him to miss a few games.

Naylor wasn’t just good for the Mariners down the stretch, he was the best he has ever been, which was initially why I excluded him from the off-season plan (more on that shortly). From a high level standpoint, here was how Naylor performed for two months in Seattle as compared to how he has performed in any full season in his career:

• WRC+: Career High

• SLG: Career High

• AVG: Second Highest

• BABIP: Second Highest

• FWAR/600: Double His Career High

• Stolen Bases: LOL, LMFAO EVEN

Now as to why I didn’t include him in the Front Office plan, I do have a few concerns with Naylor.

First, the competition for Naylor’s service may wind up being a big problem. At 28, Naylor is younger for your average free agent, and as stated above, is coming off the best two month stretch of his career. There are a handful of big market teams (New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers) who all have holes at 1B, and could push the financial commitment to a level the organization won’t feel comfortable committing to.

Secondly, and this might be the more important piece, is the expectations that Josh Naylor will ever be this good again. Naylor essentially performed as a 5.5 fWAR first baseman over the final two months of the season for Seattle, a pace he has never come close to sniffing through his career. Now, if Naylor can be a 2-3 fWAR player for the duration of the contract (as he has been for the last three seasons), you can live with a $22m AAV, especially considering the future money that will be coming off the books for the Mariners (J.P Crawford, Randy Arozarena). However, any sort of decline in performance by Naylor means tying a healthy portion of the organization’s typical budget to a slightly above average first baseman, and putting yourself in a position where future extensions or player acquisitions could be hindered by the contract you give out now. That said, it ain’t my money, and I do not worry myself with the financials of billionaires.

With all of that being said, the Mariners Front Office has been adamant that Naylor is their priority, and if there were a time for this regime to hand out a “bigger” contract than they ever have to an offensive player, it’s now. From a PR perspective, there isn’t a more slam dunk type signing for the organization than bringing Naylor back into the fold for the next 4-5 seasons. There is truly no player I have seen who has earned the unbridled love and support from this fan base this quickly, and his impact on the organization as a whole has been made quite evident based on comments from the players themselves, and the front office.

Move 2: Trade for CJ Abrams

Mariners Receive: SS CJ Abrams

Washington Nationals Receive: SHP Jurrangelo Cijntje, SS Felnin Celesten and OF Tai Peete

Though Abrams has played SS for the entirety of his career, I’m not so sure Abrams should continue to see that defensive position moving forward. Since 2022, CJ Abrams has ranked dead last (by a wide margin) in terms of Outs Above Average at the shortstop position (ironically, right in front of J.P Crawford).

Abrams’ biggest areas of concern in terms of fielding are on balls he has to charge, as well as balls hit to his left - which hypothetically could make him a difficult fit at third base, which would be the position I would hope the Mariners would try to transition him to if acquired. But at only 25 years of age, and with three years of arb control remaining, he is certainly a player the Mariners could look to take a chance on defensively, in the hopes that Perry Hill could help Abrams improve on the true weak point in his game.

Offensively, Abrams has averaged 19 home runs and 36 stolen bases over his last three full seasons, while also offering a slightly above average WRC+. Though his speed might lead you to think he could be a viable leadoff option, a spot in which he’s hit out of for more than 50% of his career, Abrams is not necessarily an on-base type, and has only carried a 5.3 BB% for his career. The Mariners would still likely slot Abrams into their leadoff spot in this scenario, primarily due to the lack of internal options.

From a compensation standpoint, the Mariners match up well for a Nationals club that is likely heading into a rather lengthy rebuild, and would be able to provide Washington with a few nice pieces that wouldn’t require the Nationals to start their service clock earlier than they would like.

Jurrangelo Cijntje’s calling card is that he is a switch handed pitcher offering a wrinkle that no other pitcher has been realistically capable of doing at the major league level. That said, his ability to be a switch pitcher has been exposed at the minor league level, but that doesn’t make him any lesser of a prospect in general.

Objectively, Cijntje is a high end RHP prospect who has the party trick of being able to throw with his left arm. As impressive as it is that he’s capable of doing both, his ability to consistently retire hitters from the south paw side at A+ and AA Ball just doesn’t offer much more than the occasional opportunity to deploy him from the bullpen if he develops more, or occasionally deploying him against LHH’s who struggle mightily against LHP.

Regardless of Cijntje’s ability to develop his LHP repertoire, he is still a universally agreed upon top 100 pitching arm who would likely be in AA or AAA for Washington at the beginning of 2026, with an outside possibility of breaking into their rotation, or joining their bullpen, by the end of the year, unless they wanted to delay his service clock for one more season.

Cijntje would slide in to the top 4 of the Nationals farm system, and would give the Nationals arguably the best rotation in the minor leagues between him, Travis Sykora and Jarlin Susana all potentially being in AA Harrisburg, or in AAA to start the 2026 season.

Felnin Celesten, who is arguably one of the best international prospects the Mariners have ever signed, has struggled to stay healthy during his time with the Mariners, which has led to him slipping out of a handful of top 100 prospect ranks.

Despite his injury history though, there are still prospect pundits (specifically Keith Law) who still view Celesten as a high end prospect with the defensive chops to stick at shortstop, with power that could develop as he continues to get older.

In terms of on-field performance, Celesten did struggle in his initial cup of coffee in A+ ball this year, but did so at the age of 19, which would have made him one of the youngest players in the league at the time. He spent the majority of his time in A ball this year, where he produced a 107 WRC+, with average walk and strikeout rates.

Admittedly, there is still more dreaming than proof of concept on Celesten at this point, and his value in any trade will likely need to come from an organization that chooses to see the potential more than his string of injuries that have limited him to 136 games in two stateside seasons. Given Washington’s lack of farm depth, and timeline to compete, I do think a player like Celesten is the type of prospect they would view as fit with the organization moving forward, pending their belief in his tools to take a step forward in 2026.

Tai Peete struggled offensively in 2025 with the jump to A+ ball, but there may not be another prospect in the Mariners system that has as much flash in his tools as Peete does.

Offensively, there is a continued concern with his plate discipline, as his last two seasons have ended with a strikeout rate north of 30%. Peete does show a great blend of power and speed, and finished only one home run shy of a 20/20 season in A+ ball this year, despite the strikeout issues.

Defensively, Peete transitioned from the infield dirt to centerfield this year, and did so with great success. Peete was a regular on the Mariners Minors Twitter account, and showed the speed and natural ability to stick in centerfield moving forward. In a Nationals system that is desperate for outfield help, and could likely see some of their current outfield options in the major leagues in other organizations by the time they are ready to compete, Peete would likely immediately rank as the best outfield prospect in their system, but would still be 2-3 years away from having any impact on the major league roster.

Move 3: Trade for Angel Zerpa

Mariners Receive: LHP Angel Zerpa

Kansas City Receives: 1B/OF Luke Raley, RHP Teddy McGraw and OF Victor Labrada

Tying back to my Trade Deadline Strategy article back in July, the Royals and the Mariners seem to be almost natural trade partners given the needs for both. The Mariners are in desperate need of another strikeout arm, particularly from the left side, while the Royals are in desperate need of additional production from their outfield, particularly now that Mike Yastrzemski has entered free agency.

Now, Zerpa hasn’t necessarily been a strikeout guy in his career, where he only has a 7.63 K/9, but what he does have is velocity, and a ground ball arsenal that led to him having a top five ground ball rate of all qualified relief pitchers in baseball last season.

Zerpa can be a little homer prone, however a transition to T-Mobile Park could help lower that for him, instead of the House of Horrors that is Kauffman Stadium in the summer time.

From a compensation standpoint, I viewed this similarly through the lense of the Gregory Santos trade from 2024, where the Mariners parted with a journeyman outfielder, a potential bullpen prospect with high octane stuff, and their Competitive Balance Round B pick that they had available to them. Given the Mariners do not currently have a pick to offer, I circled back to a trade proposal from the above mentioned trade deadline article where I proposed Dominic Canzone and Teddy McGraw for Lucas Erceg, but instead, subbed in Luke Raley as the outfielder of choice.

Raley had an injury filled 2025 which has left him in an interesting spot with the organization. Raley was given opportunities at first base, which could be valuable for the Mariners organization if they were left at the alter for any available options this off-season, but his performance there was… middling… to say the least. With the breakout from Dominic Canzone, Raley feels as if he might be best suited for a role with another organization. With three years of arbitration remaining, and two years of proven success in the majors, Raley acts as the pseudo-lead in this package for Kansas City, a team that finished dead last in major league baseball in terms of WRC+ from its outfield.

Teddy McGraw, in this case, acts as the value of the Comp B pick from the Santos trade. Currently ranked 14th in the Mariners prospect ranks, McGraw brings electric stuff, with three pitches (FB, SL, CU) that all have current 50 grades, with future value room to grow on each. Unfortunately, McGraw also brings a very long list of arm injuries, which inevitably lead to him falling to the 3rd Round of the 2023 Draft. At this point, McGraw is likely suited for a bullpen role. The Mariners did have him work as a starter this year, but he was limited to no more than 3 innings per outing. McGraw is Rule 5 eligible, though it would be a surprise to see a team take him to be on their 26 man roster for next season given he has not yet thrown a pitch above A+ ball.

Victor Labrada slides in as the DeLoach type in this deal, as a journeyman outfielder who has never really garnered much traction in prospect rankings, despite back to back productive years in the minor leagues. Already 25, Labrada is a small statured speedster type who saw a breakthrough in 2025 after making adjustments at Driveline during the off-season. Labrada posted career bests in average and OBP, while posting the second best WRC+ of his career. Labrada is Rule 5 eligible, and has been before - but his 2025 breakout might require whatever team employs his services to place him on their 40 man to avoid losing him in December.

Move 4: Mariners Sign Willi Castro

Contract: 1 year, $9m

In the final move, the Mariners look to continue to add flexibility to their roster by adding Willi Castro on a one year prove it deal, a deal he will likely now have to consider given his performance in Chicago following the trade deadline.

Castro was a very popular trade target this past July for Mariners fans, but was quickly forgotten about following the surprise plane ride by one Eugenio Suárez, and the middle of the night Passan bomb that sent the Mariners twitter-sphere into a tizzy.

Castro was on pace for this third straight season of posting at least a 106 WRC+ until his trade to the the north side of Chicago seemed to sap him of any BABIP magic he may have had in his time in Minnesota.

Prior to the trade, Castro ran a 109 WRC+, with league average strikeout and walk rates and a .742. OPS. Castro also added a much needed defensive flexibility to any club that acquired him, as he started at least 5 games at six positions in 2025. However, upon arriving in Chicago, Castro went into a tailspin, posting a paltry 40 WRC+ with a sub .500 OPS in 110 PAs for the Cubs. Though he was on their postseason roster for the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds, Castro saw zero plate appearances and would’ve been benched in September if not for injuries providing him opportunities to play.

With that said, Castro would offer the Mariners the utility type player they now have a need for, who would allow the organization to use him at almost every position on the diamond. He still managed a 109 WRC+ against left handed pitching, which would allow for him to pair well with a handful of players on the roster at multiple positions.

This move also allows the Mariners the flexibility to move Victor Robles into more of a true 4th outfielder if they so choose, as Castro could also offer a platoon option with Dominic Canzone, while allowing Robles to be more of a spot starter or defensive replacement late in games for either corner outfield spot. Castro could also handle 2B and 3B as a RHH partner for both Williamson and Cole Young if necessary.

How The Roster Comes Together

Summary of Acquisitions

Arbitration: Non-Tender Trent Thornton and Tayler Saucedo, offer arbitration to all other players.

Free Agents: Josh Naylor and Willi Castro

Traded for Players: CJ Abrams and Angel Zerpa

Notes:

• Payroll did end up staying under the $170m threshold by roughly $2.8m, but those numbers can be adjusted based on performance bonuses, arbitration estimates, etc.

• Willi Castro is not listed as a starter, but would be likely act in a Dylan Moore like UTIL role, and would get regular starts in the OF as well as some time at 2B and 3B

• Ben Williamson gets the last spot on the bench to provide a surefire defensive option at third base in case the Abrams solution does not work and Abrams needs to be shifted to 2B

• In the above instance Cole Young would move to the bench, or potentially to AAA pending there is an alternate option in Tacoma that better fits the rosters needs

• Dominic Canzone as my DH isn’t necessarily ideal, but it does feel as if the Mariners plans include Cal Raleigh getting more rest from behind the plate. I tend to hope that is the plan as well, especially if Cal’s defense continues to slide over the length of his contract

• The bullpen’s final three spots of Hancock, Vargas and Santos are very interchangeable. The only likely lock here would be Vargas given he has no options remaining - both Hancock and Santos could be optioned to AAA in case a pile reliever makes the team out of camp.

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Note: This is part 4 of a 5 part series reviewing the 2026 Seattle Mariners.

1. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 1: 2026 Mariners Roster As Is

2. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 2: Free Agent Fits per Position

3. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 3: Trade Targets per Position

4. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 4: The F.O Off-Season Plan

5. Off-Season Captain’s Log - Part 5: My Off-Season Plan (Coming Soon)

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Prologue

With the review of the 2026 Roster as is, Free Agent Fits and Trade Targets out of the way, I wanted to take two different routes to handling an off-season plan.

Given some fans (this author included) like to put together their own off-season plans on how the Mariners could fill out a roster, I often find that regardless of staying within the same restrictions (money, prospects, etc.), my plan often varies from what I believe the front office will actually wind up doing.

With that in mind, I decided to put together two separate plans this year - the first plan, which will be outlined in this write-up, will be centered around how I think the front office would handle the off-season, while the second plan (to be released later) will be focused on how I would handle the off-season if I was in charge of roster construction.

Current Roster and Expected Restrictions

NOTE: All references of financials and current roster structure will come from Fangraphs Roster Resource, with numbers rounded for easier math. I will also only focus on expected payroll for the 26 man roster. All prospect rankings will be utilized through MLB Pipeline due to them being the most up-to-date.

Current Payroll for 2026: $134m

Expected Payroll for 2026: $170m

Current Under Contract Players:

• SP, Luis Castillo - $24.15m, signed through 2027 with a vesting option for 2028.

• C, Cal Raleigh - $12.67m, signed through 2030 with a vesting option for 2031.

• CF, Julio Rodriguez - $20.18m signed through 2029, with conditional club options after 2029 (8 or 10 years), with alternative player options for 2030-2034.

• SS, J.P Crawford - $12m signed through 2026.

• RF, Victor Robles - $5.12m signed through 2026 with a club option in 2027.

Current Option Eligible Players:

• 2B/DH, Jorge Polanco - $6m player option for 2026

  • (Update: this was declined by Polanco)

• RP, Andrés Muñoz - $7m club option for 2026, $8m club in 2027, $10m club in 2028

  • (Update: this was picked up by the club)

Current Arbitration Eligible Players:

• Randy Arozarena - MLBTR Projected - $18.2m

• Trent Thornton - MLBTR Projected - $2.5m

• Logan Gilbert - MLBTR Projected -$10m

• Gabe Speier - MLBTR Projected - $1.7m

• George Kirby - MLBTR Projected - $5.4m

• Luke Raley - MLBTR Projected - $1.8m

• Matt Brash - MLBTR Projected - $1.8m

• Gregory Santos - MLBTR Projected - $800k

• Bryce Miller - MLBTR Projected - $2.4m

• Tayler Saucedo - MLBTR Projected - $1.1m

Current Pre-Arbitration Eligible Players:

• RP, Eduard Bazardo

• RP, Carlos Vargas

• SP, Bryan Woo

• RF/DH, Dominic Canzone

• UTIL, Miles Mastrobuoni

• C, Harry Ford

• 2B, Cole Young

• 2B, Ryan Bliss

• 2B, Leo Rivas

• 3B, Ben Williamson

Current Expected Lineup, Rotation and Bullpen:

Arbitration Decisions

The Mariners will likely move on from both Trent Thornton and Tayler Saucedo, thus freeing up roughly $3.6m in projected arbitration cost.

Thornton, unfortunately, suffered a season ending achilles injury following the trade deadline, and will likely be sidelined for most if not all of 2026 as well. I do believe there is a high chance the Mariners would bring back Thornton on a MiLB deal regardless, but there’s no scenario I can see where the Mariners will be willing to pay $2.5m for a reliever you may not see in 2026.

Saucedo’s non-tenure is more performance based, and is more clear considering his injury filled 2025, as well as his spot on the pecking order in the bullpen. Realistically, the Mariners can look for non-arbitration eligible arms who could fill a theoretical second lefty spot in the bullpen, and there is always a chance they could sign Saucedo back on a minor league deal if he’s open to it.

Move 1: Re-Sign Jorge Polanco

Contract: 2 years, $30m ($15m AAV) with a 3rd year club option at $15m ($2m buyout)

If you are wondering why the first move of the off-season is Jorge Polanco, and not the beloved Josh Naylor, let me explain.

First of all, I tend to believe that of the upcoming free agents leaving the Mariners roster, Polanco will likely be the easiest to re-sign. I had laid out on Twitter a potential avenue I would hope the Mariners could explore, where they could hypothetical convince Polanco to opt in to his 2026 contract, while also giving him a two year extension to guarantee him until 2028. However, I am operating in the mindset that Polanco will either re-structure, or opt out (he did) and test the open market.

Admittedly, I see Polanco’s market looking very similar to Mitch Garver’s from 2023, where his lack of durability and age will slot him slightly lower than what his market could have been if he had performed in 2024 the way he did in 2025.

Yes, Polanco had an incredible 2025 season, however, given Polanco has:

• Played more than 118 games once since ‘22

• Averaged 113 games a year in full seasons (non-COVID/14-15)

• Has posted 2+ fWAR 3 times in ten years

• Is going to be playing ‘26 in his age 33 season

I’d be pretty surprised if his market went much higher than the $15m AAV I have proposed in this deal. That said, I do believe the front office would look to structure Polanco’s contract similarly to that of Garver’s by adding on an additional club option at a lower AAV, but with a buyout that would bring his total guaranteed money to $32m.

Now, there is also an additional reason for why I have Polanco listed as the first move in this plan, and it is certainly going to upset most of you who read this.

I do not believe the Front Office will inevitably go the extra distance to re-sign Josh Naylor this off-season.

Seeing projections from outlets such as The Athletic and Baseball America have me concerned that the Front Office will look at Naylor, and understand that there is a likely limited growth to what he can be as a player moving forward despite his age. I do think the front office will do what it can to re-sign him, however, I do think other teams such as the Mets and Red Sox could be willing to go to 5 guaranteed years, or to a higher AAV than the Mariners front office will be comfortable going to.

By the beginning of the 2026 season, I expect that only one of Eugenio Suarez, Josh Naylor or Jorge Polanco will be in a Mariners uniform, and of the group, Polanco feels like he’s the most likely.

AUTHOR’S NOTE: Polanco officially opted out of his contract on November 5th.

Move 2: The Mariners acquire Brandon Lowe

Mariners Receive: 1B/2B/DH Brandon Lowe

Tampa Bay Receives: UTIL Brock Rodden and RHP Troy Taylor

When doing an off-season plan that revolves around the front office, and how we think they may operate, it almost feels reckless to not include the Tampa Bay Rays as part of the strategy. To date, Jerry Dipoto in his tenure has made seventeen trades with the Tampa Bay Rays (JUST KIDDING IT’S EIGHTEEN NOW), by far the most he’s made with any franchise.

Now, with the Rays under new ownership, there is always the possibility that their operating styles may change - but until we see that, we will continue to operate under the idea that the Rays will trade players who make real money, especially when that player has minimal control remaining - Brandon Lowe, as it so happens, falls into both of those categories.

Lowe continued his consistency in 2025, posting a 114 WRC+ and a .784 OPS, which does fall in line (though slightly short of) his career averages. Lowe did unfortunately see a noticeable dip in production over the second half of the season, including an ugly .217/.247/.398 line over the course of September and October.

What was noticeable for me, however, was Lowe’s home road splits, and how he actually hit significantly worse in the very friendly George Steinbrenner Stadium than he did on the road. At home, Lowe had a .240/.279/.456 line for a 97 WRC+, but on the road, hit .275/.337/.500 for a 132 WRC+.

As I had laid out in the third part of this series, I went back and forth on Yandy Diaz vs. Brandon Lowe as the better fit for the Mariners, but inevitably landed on Lowe after seeing Diaz’ increase in slugging being a bit of a product of hitting in the third friendliest ballpark for right handed hitters.

For his career, Lowe has seen a fair amount of success playing in T-Mobile Park, where over 48 PAs has a .943 OPS, though that does come with a slightly elevated K rate (29.1% compared to 27.3% career). Obviously this is a small sample size, but identifying hitters who have seen success in Seattle specifically does tend to ease the mind of this author.

Financially, Lowe has a club option for 2026 worth $11.5m, and on top of the $15m already promised to Polanco in this plan, more or less splits the potential money (plus a few million) owed to Josh Naylor across two players who would help cover first base, second base and designated hitter when Cal Raleigh is behind the plate.

In terms of compensation, I tried my best to model this deal to a lower compensation to that of the Teoscar Hernandez deal from 2022, where the Mariners traded an at the time top 10 prospect (weaker farm in 2022) in Adam Macko, and three years of control of Erik Swanson, who at the time, was coming off of a career year. At the time, Teoscar, 30, was coming off of a 3.0 fWAR year, with a 130 WRC+ and wound up earning $14m through arbitration. Lowe will be slightly less expensive, but is a year older and has not put up a season like that since 2021.

In return, the Rays get UTIL Brock Rodden who is currently ranked 22nd in the MLB Pipeline Mariners Top 30. Rodden has been in the Mariners system for 3 years now, and will be Rule 5 eligible come December, and must be included on the 40 man roster in order to avoid being subject to the Rule 5 draft.

Rodden had an injury riddled season in AA Arkansas, where he posted a .293/.365/.452 line with a 139 WRC+ in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in minor league baseball - and was shut down permanently in August after suffering a fractured hamate. In his previous full season in 2024, Rodden posted a 116 WRC+ across two levels, but struggled initially upon his debut in Arkansas. Rodden has spent time at 2B, SS and 3B in his time with Seattle, and could serve as a potential utility man for Tampa as early as 2026 pending his injury heals, and he picks up from where he left off in 2025.

Troy Taylor is a bit of a wild card option here for Tampa Bay, but of all the organizations to take a shot on the glimpses seen from Taylor in 2024, it might be them.

Taylor had a disastrous season in 2025, going from someone who was expected to be a part of the backend of the bullpen in February, to a guy running a 28% HR/FB rate in 44.2 IP in AAA. Taylor showed glimpses of who he could be in the major leagues in 2024 when he had a 3.39 xFIP and a 11.64 K/9 in 19.1 IP, but somewhere along the line between then and now, something has clearly gotten out of whack for Taylor, to the point where he has become a bit of an afterthought for most fans.

That said, Tampa could view this package as two players who could contribute on their roster as early as 2026, and would both come with 5+ years of control - which could likely be what it takes to get Lowe to Seattle.

Note: This package could be considered light, but it is almost impossible to understand Tampa Bay and their wants and needs. I think most Mariners fans would view the Randy Arozarena deal as a win for the Mariners based on the names that they didn’t give up, however, the Rays did the deal regardless. I would be amendable to adding just about any non-top half prospect to this package and wouldn’t really flinch.

Move 3: Mariners Acquire Angel Zerpa

Mariners Receive: LHP Angel Zerpa

Kansas City Receives: 1B/OF Luke Raley, RHP Teddy McGraw and OF Victor Labrada

Tying back to my Trade Deadline Strategy article back in July, the Royals and the Mariners seem to be almost natural trade partners given the needs for both. The Mariners are in desperate need of another strikeout arm, particularly from the left side, while the Royals are in desperate need of additional production from their outfield, particularly now that Mike Yastrzemski has entered free agency.

Now, Zerpa hasn’t necessarily been a strikeout guy in his career, where he only has a 7.63 K/9, but what he does have is velocity, and a ground ball arsenal that led to him having a top five ground ball rate of all qualified relief pitchers in baseball last season.

Zerpa can be a little homer prone, however a transition to T-Mobile Park could help lower that for him, instead of the House of Horrors that is Kauffman Stadium in the summer time.

From a compensation standpoint, I viewed this similarly through the lense of the Gregory Santos trade from 2024, where the Mariners parted with a journeyman outfielder, a potential bullpen prospect with high octane stuff, and their Competitive Balance Round B pick that they had available to them. Given the Mariners do not currently have a pick to offer, I circled back to a trade proposal from the above mentioned trade deadline article where I proposed Dominic Canzone and Teddy McGraw for Lucas Erceg, but instead, subbed in Luke Raley as the outfielder of choice.

Raley had an injury filled 2025 which has left him in an interesting spot with the organization. Raley was given opportunities at first base, which could be valuable for the Mariners organization if they were left at the alter for any available options this off-season, but his performance there was… middling… to say the least. With the breakout from Dominic Canzone, Raley feels as if he might be best suited for a role with another organization. With three years of arbitration remaining, and two years of proven success in the majors, Raley acts as the pseudo-lead in this package for Kansas City, a team that finished dead last in major league baseball in terms of WRC+ from its outfield.

Teddy McGraw, in this case, acts as the value of the Comp B pick from the Santos trade. Currently ranked 14th in the Mariners prospect ranks, McGraw brings electric stuff, with three pitches (FB, SL, CU) that all have current 50 grades, with future value room to grow on each. Unfortunately, McGraw also brings a very long list of arm injuries, which inevitably lead to him falling to the 3rd Round of the 2023 Draft. At this point, McGraw is likely suited for a bullpen role. The Mariners did have him work as a starter this year, but he was limited to no more than 3 innings per outing. McGraw is Rule 5 eligible, though it would be a surprise to see a team take him to be on their 26 man roster for next season given he has not yet thrown a pitch above A+ ball.

Victor Labrada slides in as the DeLoach type in this deal, as a journeyman outfielder who has never really garnered much traction in prospect rankings, despite back to back productive years in the minor leagues. Already 25, Labrada is a small statured speedster type who saw a breakthrough in 2025 after making adjustments at Driveline during the off-season. Labrada posted career bests in average and OBP, while posting the second best WRC+ of his career. Labrada is Rule 5 eligible, and has been before - but his 2025 breakout might require whatever team employs his services to place him on their 40 man to avoid losing him in December.

Move 4: Mariners Acquire Brendan Donovan

Mariners Receive: UTIL Brendan Donovan

St. Louis Cardinals Receive: RHP Logan Evans, 2B Michael Arroyo and OF Tai Peete

With two years of arbitration control remaining, Brendan Donovan fits this front office’s mold of acquiring players in their arbitration years. Despite my previous thoughts on why I think acquiring Donovan to play 3B would be a poor use of his skillset in my previous article, this plan is meant to be from the eyes of the Front Office - and given the organization tried to justify Jorge Polanco as their starting third baseman in 2025, it would not surprise me in the least to see them try the same thing with Donovan.

Donovan has experience playing almost every position on the diamond outside of catcher and centerfield, with the lion share of his time over the last two seasons being at second and in left. Given the inevitable free agency of Randy Arozarena in 2027, Donovan would potentially solve multiple issues for the Mariners over multiple seasons, while also adding some additional flexibility in 2026 in case of injury across the diamond.

Donovan has played third base only 15 times in the past three seasons, including zero appearances in 2025, but he did appear in 31 games at third in 2022, with positive results in terms of Outs Above Average. It might be a stretch to expect he could just pick it back up in 2026, but again, the front office has tried other less likely fits as recently as this March.

Logan Evans might not have the allure to a healthy portion of the fan base in terms of what his value can be, but for a St. Louis Cardinals ball club who is looking to trade Sonny Gray, and will enter the season (barring free agent adds) with potentially 3-4 spots in their rotation up for grabs, Evans fits a need as someone with major league experience who can come in and compete for a job immediately.

Evans started 15 games for the Mariners this year with rather pedestrian results. His 4.32 ERA is inflated from two very rough starts in Sacramento and New York, but his FIP being above 5 also suggests that overall body of work was actually relatively lucky.

His 6.53 K/9 is lower than you would hope from a starter, but he does have a minor league track record of a much more palatable 8.72 K/9. Evans uses a six pitch mix to help keep batters off-balance, but his future may be dictated on figuring out which of those pitches can get more consistent swing and miss. He is likely a back of the rotation type arm, but could eventually be looked at again for a bullpen role, something the Mariners tried in 2024.

Michael Arroyo will undoubtedly be the most painful piece in this trade for most readers, but with two years of control on an above average proven bat in Brendan Donovan, it’s unlikely the Mariners will be able to complete this trade without parting with one of their higher range prospects.

Arroyo is the definition of “have bat, will travel” in terms of his prospect pedigree. Through three full seasons in the minors, Arroyo has yet to post lower than a 128 WRC+, and has flown through the Mariners system, finishing the year in AA Arkansas at the age of 20. Arroyo will likely start his 2026 in Arkansas again, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see Arroyo in AAA prior to the end of the year, with an outside shot of reaching the big leagues if his hitting continues.

The one struggle with Arroyo is where exactly you put him in the field. He saw some growth at 2B defensively, but there have been early rumblings that the Mariners could potentially give him more of a look in the outfield next season. The bat will likely keep him comfortably in most top 100 rankings, but his defensive limitations will likely keep him from breaking into the upper echelon of prospect sheets.

Tai Peete struggled offensively in 2025 with the jump to A+ ball, but there may not be another prospect in the Mariners system that has as much flash in his tools as Peete does.

Offensively, there is a continued concern with his plate discipline, as his last two seasons have ended with a strikeout rate north of 30%. Peete does show a great blend of power and speed, and finished only one home run shy of a 20/20 season in A+ ball this year, despite the strikeout issues.

Defensively, Peete transitioned from the infield dirt to centerfield this year, and did so with great success. Peete was a regular on the Mariners Minors Twitter account, and showed the speed and natural ability to stick in centerfield moving forward. In a Cardinals system that is desperate for outfield help, Peete would likely immediately rank as the best outfield prospect in their system, but would still be 2-3 years away from having any impact on the major league roster.

Move 5: Mariners Sign Willi Castro

Contract: 1 year, $9m

In the final move, the Mariners look to continue to add flexibility to their roster by adding Willi Castro on a one year prove it deal, a deal he will likely now have to consider given his performance in Chicago following the trade deadline.

Castro was a very popular trade target this past July for Mariners fans, but was quickly forgotten about following the surprise plane ride by one Eugenio Suárez, and the middle of the night Passan bomb that sent the Mariners twitter-sphere into a tizzy.

Castro was on pace for this third straight season of posting at least a 106 WRC+ until his trade to the the north side of Chicago seemed to sap him of any BABIP magic he may have had in his time in Minnesota.

Prior to the trade, Castro ran a 109 WRC+, with league average strikeout and walk rates and a .742. OPS. Castro also added a much needed defensive flexibility to any club that acquired him, as he started at least 5 games at six positions in 2025. However, upon arriving in Chicago, Castro went into a tailspin, posting a paltry 40 WRC+ with a sub .500 OPS in 110 PAs for the Cubs. Though he was on their postseason roster for the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds, Castro saw zero plate appearances and would’ve been benched in September if not for injuries providing him opportunities to play.

With that said, Castro would offer the Mariners another utility type to go with Brendan Donovan, who would allow the organization to use him at almost every position on the diamond. He still managed a 109 WRC+ against left handed pitching, which would allow for him to pair well with a handful of players on the roster at multiple positions.

This move also allows the Mariners the flexibility to move Victor Robles into more of a true 4th outfielder if they so choose, as Castro could also offer a platoon option with Dominic Canzone, while allowing Robles to be more of a spot starter or defensive replacement late in games for either corner outfield spot. Castro could also handle 2B and 3B as a RHH partner for both Donovan and Cole Young if necessary.

How The Roster Comes Together

Summary of Acquisitions

Arbitration: Non-Tender Trent Thornton and Tayler Saucedo, offer arbitration to all other players.

Free Agents: Jorge Polanco and Willi Castro

Traded for Players: Brandon Lowe, Brendan Donovan and Angel Zerpa

Notes:

• Payroll did end up clearing my $170m threshold by roughly $725k, but those numbers can be adjusted based on performance bonuses, arbitration estimates, etc.

• Willi Castro is not listed as a starter, but would be against LHP as seen below

• Ben Williamson gets the last spot on the bench to provide a surefire defensive option at third base in case the Donovan solution does not work

• Donovan would move to second base full time in this case, and Cole Young would move to the bench, or potentially to AAA pending there is an alternate option in Tacoma that better fits the rosters needs

• First Base is definitely light with backup options, but backup 1B is not really an option on rosters, and Polanco would serve as your emergency option based on him getting some non-game reps there in 2025

• The bullpen’s final three spots of Hancock, Vargas and Santos are very interchangeable. The only likely lock here would be Vargas given he has no options remaining - both Hancock and Santos could be optioned to AAA in case a pile reliever makes the team out of camp.

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